DO DEPOSITORS RESPOND RATIONALLY TO BANK RISKS? EVIDENCE FROM JAPANESE BANKS DURING CRISES

This paper empirically examines depositors' ability to distinguish healthy banks from problematic banks, a necessary condition for depositors to impose discipline on banking institutions. We analyzed a large panel of 784 deposit‐taking institutions in Japan during the period from the 1992 financial year to the 2002 financial year. Our estimates indicate that depositors rightly appreciated the difference between healthy banks and risky banks, and that depositors of larger institutions are more sensitive to the bank risks than those of smaller institutions. We further argue that the estimated risk sensitivities of depositors are large enough to discipline the deposit‐taking institutions.     

Intergenerational Transfers and Asset Inequality in Japan: Empirical Evidence from New Survey Data

This paper quantitatively examines the impact of intergenerational transfers on asset inequality among Japanese households. We estimate an intergenerational asset transfer function with various control variables, using a unique micro dataset taken from a survey conducted by the Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office. Employing three different models, a Tobit model, an interval regression model and an ordered probit model, to ensure that our results are independent of the specific econometric approach used, we investigate whether asset transfers received are correlated with households’ financial strength. We find that higher income households are likely to receive larger asset transfers. However, the contribution of intergenerational transfers to asset inequality appears to be small.     

The cultural significance of accounting in Japan

We have had a spate of works on “Japanese Management” in the world, but very few on “Japanese Accounting”. In this article it is made clear that the functioning of accounting is contingent on the culture in which the accounting systems are incorporated, and that in order to discuss this intermingling of accounting and culture a perspective elaborated in Scandinavia can be relevant despite the uniqueness of Japanese culture. For only non-rationalistic or “naturalistic” perspectives can provide a basis for understanding the cultural dynamics of Japanese organizations and Japanese society. Thus the roles of accounting in Japan go far beyond what has been discussed in accounting textbooks.     

Sequential Entry in a Vertically Differentiated Market

This paper considers a sequential entry game of homogeneous firms in a vertically differentiated market. A firm can choose any variety of products, with a fixed cost per product. Each product can be withdrawn afterwards without exit costs. Then each firm chooses one product at most in equilibrium because of a commitment problem. The first firm chooses the highest quality if the fixed cost is so large that subsequent entry is blockaded. It chooses middle quality to deter entry of a low–quality firm if the fixed cost decreases. Hence everyone becomes worse off as the entrant becomes more dangerous. JEL Classification Numbers: D43, L13.     

Symmetric Cournot oligopoly and economic welfare: a synthesis

Summary Recently, Mankiw-Whinston (1986) and Suzumura-Kiyono (1987) have shown that socially excessive firm entry occurs in unregulated oligopoly. This paper extends this excess entry results by looking into strategic aspects of costreducing R&D investment that creates incentives towards socially excessive investments. In the first stage, firms decide whether or not to enter the market. In the second stage, firms make a commitment to cost-reducing R&D investment. In the third stage, firms compete in output quantities. It is shown that the excess entry holds even in the presence of strategic commitments.This is the synthesized version of the two earlier papers, Okuno-Fujiwara and Suzumura (1988) and Suzumura (1991). We are grateful to Professors J. Brander, D. Cass, M. Majumdar, A. Postlewaite, J. Richmond, A. Sandmo, B. Spencer and J. Vickers for their helpful comments and discussions on earlier drafts. Needless to say, they should not be held responsible for any remaining defects. Financial supports from the Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo Center for Economic Research, the Japanese Ministry of Education, and the Institute for Monetary and Economic Research, the Bank of Japan are gratefully acknowledged.     

Interregional economic-demographic model of the Tokyo region

The Tokyo Metropolitan Area consists of four prefectures, and experienced a rapid social inflow of population from other areas in 1960s, and a removal of residential population from CBD to suburban cities within the Area in 1970s. Tokyo prefecture at the centre functioned as CBD, and showed a continuous growth of economic activities, while the leading sector changed from secondary to tertiary sector. The number of daily commuters to Tokyo prefecture has increased to two million persons. Thus in the Tokyo prefecture several variables like social inflow, employment in secondary sector and residential population reached to historical highest values in late 1960s and early 1970s, An economic-demographic model is constructed by pooling data of four prefectures for 1965–1979 to describle these rapid changes in four prefectures.

The model consists of seven blocks (population, commutation, employment, production, income and expenditure, capital stock, price) and contains 142 equations. Social movement of residential population is explained by per capita income, housing stock, endowment of social overhead capital, and land price. Daily commuters are explained by labor productivities. Private and public investments are endogenously explained in the model. Potential type variables of income and population are used to describe the interregional linkages in various equations. After final test the model could properly explain the turning point period of Tokyo, and drastic changes of Metropolitan Area. The model is then applied to the forecast up to 1990, and several simulation studies to clarify various policy effects.     

Reform of the Japanese banking system

Japan has experienced a decade-long economic stagnation with a distressed banking sector in the 1990s. The absence of a credit culture to rigorously assess and price credit risks of borrowers, aggravated by weak prudential and supervisory frameworks, in the 1980s, the collapse of the asset price bubble in the early 1990s, and the lack of decisive, comprehensive strategy to address the banking sector problem at an early stage were largely responsible for the emergence of banking sector problems. All of these allowed a systemic banking crisis to emerge in 1997–98 and a large output loss during 1998–2002. The crisis ultimately prompted the government to take a more aggressive policy to tackle the problem. Considerable progress has been made since then on banking sector stabilization, restructuring, and consolidation. The regulatory and supervisory framework has been strengthened in a way consistent with an increasingly market-oriented, globalized environment. As a result, the worst is over in the Japanese banking system, setting the stage for sustained economic recovery. Though bank capital may still be inadequate, safety nets are in place, and credit allocation has been made more rational. Remaining risks are limited to regional and smaller institutions that are vulnerable to weak, local economic conditions and hikes of the long-term interest rate.

Economic consequences of the Home Appliance Eco-Point Program in Japan: a dynamic discrete choice approach

This study combined a dynamic discrete choice model for air conditioner replacement decisions with an inter-industry model in order to evaluate the economic impact of Japan’s Home Appliance Eco-Point Program, an appliance replacement program that was in effect from May 2009 to March 2011. Focusing on air conditioners produced from 1995 to 1999 and replaced during the period from 2005 to 2013, we found that the eco-point program increased replacement probabilities by 1.5% to 1.9% in 2009. Moreover, the program produced an additional output of 31,337 million yen and a total value added of 21,259 million yen. However, the benefit–cost ratio – determined by dividing the increase in value added by the monetary value of the points awarded for appliance replacement – was only 0.68. From a cost-benefit perspective, the program can be judged not to have been an effective policy measure.     

New Evidence on Intra‐Household Allocation of Resources in Japanese Households

This paper examines intra‐household allocation of resources to gain insight into family relationships and gender bias in Japanese households. We take the Engel curve approach to examine how adult consumption is affected by the presence of a child, either a boy or a girl, in the family. Empowered by diary‐based high quality spending data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, our empirical results show that adult consumption is significantly reduced in households with children; furthermore, gender bias is not observed in total adult expenditures, while responses of adult clothing expenses to the presence of a child are significantly different between a boy and a girl: spending on a father's clothing is reduced when the child is a school‐aged daughter, while spending on a mother's clothing decreases when a school‐aged son is in the home. Our analysis also shows that after the early 2000s girls receive a larger share of spending for children's clothing as well as for high school education than boys.