Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the dynamic Nielsen and Siegel interest rate model in forecasting Australian government bond yields. We compare a two‐stage OLS estimation procedure to a more powerful and robust state‐space framework estimated via a Kalman filter. We show that the one‐step approach generates smaller forecast errors than the two‐step procedure or a benchmark random walk model when forecasting the Australian government term structure across various horizons.     

Subsidies versus Public Provision of Private Goods as Instruments for Redistribution

The literatures on differential commodity taxes and on quantity controls to supplement income taxation have developed separately. This paper combines these two strands in the standard framework of optimal non-linear income taxation. We use a model with two types of households where the government has access to both subsidy policy and public provision of a good substitutable for leisure, and ouseholds can supplement the publicity provided good from the market. We present conditions under which policy should involve one or both of these two instruments alongside income taxation. The model is extended to many ability types.     

Crisis management in information system projects: lessons of a case study

This case study is reflective of the action‐research perspective documents applied in an intervention to manage a crisis during an information technology development project. The aim was to better understand how tools used to solve unstructured problems might help resolve such crises. The development and implementation of an intervention utilizing multiple tools is described. As a result of the intervention, a shared meaning of the crisis emerged among the major stakeholders along with a consensus as to appropriate solutions and action steps. Work on the project resumed to the satisfaction of management. Recommendations for future research are offered. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in Inequalities of Access to Dental Care in Australia 1977–2005

Information on dental visits, income and demographic variables were drawn from the Australian National Health Survey between 1977 and 2005. Income‐related inequality in access to dental care was calculated using the generalised concentration index (G) and decomposition methods were employed to examine associations with socio‐demographic and policy‐amenable factors. Statistically significant increases in inequality in dental care use were found after 1995. From 0.026 in 1995, G increased to 0.045 in 2005. The associations between increases in inequality and changes in the uptake of private health insurance suggest a contributory role of the introduction of the Commonwealth government's 30 per cent rebate for private health insurance.     

Trade and market selection: Evidence from manufacturing plants in Colombia

We examine the link between trade liberalization and aggregate productivity, with a focus on improved market selection resulting from a reduction in trade barriers and in the dispersion of these barriers across producers. Our analysis exploits tariff changes across sectors after the Colombian trade reform. An additional advantage of our analysis is that our TFP measure does not include demand and price effects. We find that reduced trade protection makes plant survival depend more closely on productivity. Using a dynamic simulation, we find that enhanced selection increases aggregate productivity substantially. Trade liberalization also increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity. We find larger effects on allocative efficiency with our TFP measure than with a traditional measure including price effects.     

Regional Cooperation among Microstates

Owing to their low bargaining power and high negotiation costs, microstates face severe disadvantages when dealing with the outside world. Forming a group with neighboring nations might be an effective instrument to address this problem. This paper presents a model in which the decision to form, expand or join a regional club is based on negotiation costs and bargaining power rather than on the traditional costs and benefits of trade integration. The model is used to determine the optimal and the equilibrium group size under various entry conditions. The welfare implications of the entry conditions are also examined.     

Market presence, contestability, and the terms-of-trade effects of regional integration

This paper examines the impact of market presence and contestability on the price behavior of US exporters in Brazil’s market when MERCOSUR and MFN trade liberalization take place. Using detailed panel data on trade and tariff rates, we find that both the preferred supplier’s market presence and threat of entry lower (raise) the US price reaction to MFN (preferential) trade liberalization, with similar quantitative effects. Thus, presence in, or threat of entry into, partners’ markets implies lower optimal MFN tariffs, and regional agreements can have pro-competitive effects in contestable markets. We also examine the ‘symmetry’ hypothesis between the effect of tariffs and exchange rates.     

Accounting for the Cost of Central Support Services in UK Universities: A Note

A significant part of the total cost of a university is spent on central support services. Traditionally, this has been funded by top-slicing the various sources of income and, although universities do attempt to ascertain the 'full cost' of research and consultancy services for pricing purposes, this practice does not always extend to attempts to determine the 'full cost' of academic departments. This survey examines the extent to which universities rely on top-slicing to recover the cost of central support services or use alternative approaches such as cost allocation, or service level agreements, or internal market prices or even devolution, as far as possible, to faculties. Each of these alternative approaches has been a feature of attempts to achieve better control of, and value for money from, central support services in other parts of the public sector, and yet these have not been widely implemented in universities.     

Can partial fiscal coordination be welfare worsening?: A model of tax competition

Most work on tax competition argues that mobile factors tend to be undertaxed except if there is coordination of tax policies. Full coordination is not however always feasible, and as a consequence some measures of partial coordination have been proposed such as minimal withholding taxes on interest income. We show that partial coordination can be in some instances welfare worsening and that then no coordination is to be preferred.