Financial flows,financial crises,and global imbalances

In this lecture I document the proliferation of gross international asset and liability positions and discuss some consequences for individual countries’ external adjustment processes and for global financial stability. In light of the rapid growth of gross global financial flows and the serious risks associated with them, one might wonder about the continuing relevance of the net financial flow measured by the current account balance. I argue that global current account imbalances remain an essential target for policy scrutiny, for financial as well as macroeconomic reasons. Nonetheless, it is critically important for policymakers to monitor as well the rapidly evolving structure of global gross assets and liabilities.     

USING NEURAL NETS TO COMBINE INFORMATION SETS IN CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

We demonstrate that the use of a neural network (NN) model to combine information from corporate financial statements and equity markets provides improved predictive estimates of the probability of corporate bankruptcy. Using performance measures, based on the receiver operating characteristic curve, the forecast combinations from the NN models are demonstrated to outperform the forecasts derived from a forecast combination generated using a logistic regression approach. This result provides support for the use of forecast combinations generated from NN models in the estimation of corporate bankruptcy probabilities as it outperforms the standard approach of forming a hybrid forecasting model which includes all the explanatory variables. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural aspects of social capital: tests for cross-national equivalence in Europe

In this contribution we start from the emerging consensus on the widely disputed phenomenon of social capital. We propose to focus on structural aspects of social capital: formal (contacts within formal organizations) and informal (contacts outside of formal organizations). First, we address methodological questions on the cross-national equivalence of these social capital measurements. Second, we re-visit substantive questions on the patterns of relationships in different European countries. In particular, we inquire to which degree formal and informal social capital can substitute each other, as well as being complementary. We take advantage of recent Eurobaromer data (2004) containing a wide range of valid measurements on both structural aspects of social capital. We find strong evidence for cross-national equivalent measurements regarding formal social capital, employing probabilistic scalogram analyses. For informal social capital, we find strong evidence for configural and metric invariance as well as evidence for partial scalar invariance, employing multi group confirmatory factor analyses. We have to reject the substantive hypothesis on substitution of formal and informal social capital for all countries under consideration, except for Romania. We corroborate the hypothesis on complementarity of formal and informal social capital.     

On the dynamic effects of global commodities on stock market blocks in Africa

This article explores the commodity–equity links in the Africa markets by distinguishing between short- to long-run co-movements driven by market shocks. Using the value-weighted average method, available Africa’s stock markets are aggregated into four market blocks. Global oil and gold returns are used as proxies for commodities. Coherency between pairs of markets is examined with the use of continuous Morlet wavelet transform. Results reveal abstemiously high degree of co-movements between the commodity–equity markets in the short- to medium-term frequencies with nonhomogenous lead–lag nexuses, signifying greater benefits of diversification in the long-term. These findings provide investors with relevant strategies for hedging.     

Discount rates and shadow prices for public investment

This paper extends the Harberger–Sandmo–Drèze model for public discount rates to a many-good economy. It derives a formula for discount rates which are specific to each public enterprise or agency and used by them to discount future outputs and inputs evaluated at market prices. Such an approach is shown to be more efficient than that of simply using a single rate for all public projects. It is also more practical than asking each public firm to use second-best shadow prices in their analyses of investment projects.The general results are first provided; then, simple cases are considered and numerical examples presented to help interpret our formula and analyse its main determinants.     

Random biographical notes

These notes, written in 1965 for Tadeusz Kowalik, provide anapt introduction to this issue of the Cambridge Journal of Economicswhich is dedicated to the memory of Maurice Dobb, for they revealthe political commitment and humanity of a modest but essentiallycourageous man. The essays which follow examine a variety ofaspects of the wide range of Maurice Dobb's contributions toeconomic knowledge. All display a spirit of constructive criticismwhich is appropriate in approaching the work of such a majorfigure.