Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The ‘puzzles’ in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.     

Citibank; Citibank,Nader and The Facts

This paper aims to understand how Internet users may improve their social capital by investing in online social activities. We argue that the Internet can be a convenient and efficient means of maintaining existing social ties and/or of creating new ties. We seek to identify the determinants of online investments in social capital and the nature of the interaction with traditional forms of investment in social capital. Using a Luxembourg household survey, the econometric results reveal a significant positive impact of volunteer activities and trust (two measures of social capital) on online investments to maintain social capital, but more ambiguous results are found between online investments and face-to-face contacts with friends. By contrast, online investments to create new ties are poorly related to the Internet users' existing social capital, but depend on the opportunity cost of time.     

An economic order quantity (EOQ) for items with imperfect quality and inspection errors

An approach similar to Salameh and Jaber (2000) has been used in this paper to produce an optimal production/order quantity that takes care of imperfect processes. An imperfect inspection process (Raouf et al., 1983) is utilized to describe the defective proportion of the received lot. That is, the inspector may commit errors while screening. The probability of misclassification errors is assumed to be known. The inspection process would consist of three costs: (a) cost of inspection (b) cost of Type I errors and (c) cost of Type II errors. The defective items, classified by the inspector and the buyer would be salvaged as a single batch that is sold at a lower price. A mathematical model is developed to depict this scenario. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the solution procedure.     

Farmer perceptions of legumes and their functions in smallholder farming systems in east Africa

Legumes play an important role in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) farming systems through the provision of food, feed, fuel, income and a range of biophysical benefits, such as soil fertility enhancement and erosion control. However, their full potential is not being realized. The purpose of this study was to assess farmers’ perceptions and knowledge towards legumes and the rationale of farmers for current legume production practices using a survey of 268 farmers in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya. Most of the farmers had some knowledge of legumes and their characteristics. However, they had little knowledge of some key functions, including soil erosion control and soil fertility improvement. Most farmers relied on radio and other farmers for legume-related information. Farmers with relatively large livestock holdings ranked provision of livestock feed as an important legume function. We conclude that farmers put more value on short-term benefits of legumes including food and income than long-term benefits such as natural resource management and thus grain legumes are more readily identified by farmers than forage species. Also, we conclude that farmers require more than just information about legumes to increase uptake, they also require improved market access to procure inputs and sell products to realize other benefits that are associated with growing legumes.     

Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effects in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model

The objective of the paper is to explore potential changes in trade induced by a liberalization scenario when taking into account persistence in trading partners. Our approach is based on the development of a gravity model that takes into account the dynamics at the extensive margin of trade as well as the persistence effect of the intensity of trade. Our empirical contribution is on the egg sector, where the persistence in trading partners is acute. Our results indicate that the use of static models underestimate imports of table eggs by more than 50% in Canada, when compared with the use of panel dynamic specification. The dynamic specification helps explain why trade liberalizations often increase trade creation between countries that had already been trading partners, while new trading partnerships remain scarce following trade liberalization. Our results also confirm the importance of sunk cost and their negative impact on the probability of export market participation for developing countries. Those results raise questions regarding the benefit of trade liberalization for developing countries, in terms of accessing new market, if they do not benefit from special treatments.     

BUDGET AUDITING IN GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS FINANCED BY TAXATION

There is some a priori support in the literature for using budgets as external financial reports, both before the financial year and afterwards. There is also some support for having these budgets audited. A questionnaire was sent to six hypothesised user groups in two local authority areas to determine whether there was empirical support for the a priori positions. The responses revealed wide support for making budget figures publicly available, both before and after the fmancial year. Support for auditing these budgets came only from external user groups (excluding members of parliament).     

Organising the Organisers

Reaction against over-government can be seen in the hope for revival in voluntary action. Professor Maurice North shows Norman Fowler the dangers for the public welfare of continuing state control by financing 'voluntary' activity.     

Central bank intervention,the current account,and exchange rates

This paper seeks to explain exchange rate and current account or net foreign assets behavior under central bank foreign exchange rate intervention. To analyze central bank intervention we use the current account-net foreign assets identity, as well as the long-run monetary exchange rate model. The intervention function is one where exchange rate deviations from equilibrium are governed by nonlinear adjustments. That is, exchange rate deviations from their long-run equilibrium are such that the degree of reversion towards equilibrium increases with the size of the deviation from equilibrium. In this type of nonlinear function exchange rates determine the current account, and the current account in turn determines exchange rates. This iterative duality contrasts with several portfolio balance models where exchange rates are a function of trade, but trade is not a function of exchange rates. This two way causality is slightly more complex, but is also analytically richer than assuming that exchange rates change solely in a one step process as targeted by central banks. Managing exchange rates is posited to be an active iterative feedback process where intervention changes the current account, which may in turn make further intervention necessary.