人民币钉住美元面临重大选择

很高兴参与这个项目,我今天主要和大家讨论一些与汇率相关的问题,提点建议:     

The Use of Maximum Entropy to Estimate Input-Output Coefficients From Regional Farm Accounting Data

This paper proposes the use of the Generalised Maximum Entropy (GME) method to estimate input-output coefficients, which reflect the unobserved allocation of farm input accounting costs to the various outputs produced. The GME method uses Shannon's information criterion as a basis for estimation. The performance of the GME method is compared with three other estimation techniques: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Bayesian estimation, and Linear Programming (LP). The various methods are applied to accounting data from a sample of beef-dairy farms in Brittany, France. The analysis shows that the GME method offers an interesting alternative to “traditional” estimation methods. In contrast with the latter, though, the GME method is suitable to handle easily the problems of singularity, constrained estimation, and zero-observations. Moreover, due to its flexibility, transparency and relative ease of implementation, the GME method is of great value to practitioners. However, the sensitivity of the GME estimates with respect to the design of the prior information set needs to be investigated further.     

Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market

Cyclical asymmetry has been recognised as a non-linear phenomenon in recent studies examining unemployment rate time series. The probalistic structure of such time series is different during upswings and downswings and models should reflect this change in structure by incorporating non-linearities to allow for the switching in optimising behaviours between the different phases. In this paper we use a number of established and new tests for identifying nonlinearities of different types as they occur in first-differenced time series of the seasonally-adjusted monthly Australian aggregate and regional unemployment rates. After identifying whether nonlinearity of a particular form is present in a given time series, the appropriate non-linear or linear model is fitted and the model analysed for cyclical behaviour.     

Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit

The paper studies the effects of terms-of-trade fluctuations in an infinite-horizon optimizing model of a small, open economy. While the current-account response to a transitory terms-of-trade shock is in part explicable by intertemporal smoothing, an important additional factor is the effect of anticipated future terms-of-trade shifts on the ral value of the external debt in terms of the home consumption basket. When foreign borrowing is indexed to the import good, a temporary worsening of the terms of trade creates the expectation of a decline in the real value of external debt. This fall in the relevant real interest rate leads households to increase consumption while export prices are low and to decrease consumption sharply once the terms of trade recover. If an adverse price shock is of sufficiently brief duration, instantaneous utility will rise initially.     

Strategy follows structure!

Researchers have for some time been interested in the relationship between the strategy and structure of an organization. In this article the authors discuss the most widely-held view on the nature of this relationship, and then suggest an alternative explanation. For them strategy, structure, and environment are closely linked. Whereas men may build the structure of an organization, in practice it is this very structure which later constrains the strategic choices they may make.     

The Effect of the Elimination of Federal Milk Marketing Orders on Farm-level Markets: A Laboratory Experiment

Experimental markets are used to simulate U.S. dairy market conditions and the effect of the elimination of Federal Milk Marketing Orders. The experimental task is a simple 2x2 matrix laboratory game that is computer assisted. The treatments are oligopsony and regulation. Perishability is represented by advance production decision with no carryover and is kept constant across the experiments. Sellers make production decisions and receive a pool price, while buyers make a price (bid) and quantity decision. Experimental results indicate that, in the absence of regulation, buyers are successful in reducing market price and in capturing a larger share of market surplus than a perfectly competitive solution predicts. Regulation reduced the market power of buyers and the price fluctuation of raw milk, in an oligopsonistic market, and does not reduce the overall price efficiency of the market. L'auteur s'est servi de marchés expérimentaux pour simuler la situation sur le marché américain des produits laitiers et les répercussions de l'abolition des Federal Milk Marketing Orders (décrets fédéraux de commercialisation du lait). L'expérience consistait en un simple jeu de laboratoire à matrice 2x2 assisté par ordinateur. Les deux situations examinées étaient l'oligopsone et la régiementation. L'aspect périssable des denrées est representé par une décision de production avant prix sans possibilité d'entre pasage, et est constante dans toutes les expériences. Les vendeurs prenaient des décisions à l'égard de la production et recevaient un prix commun, tandis que les décisions des acheteurs se rapportaient au prix (offre) et à la quantité. Les résultats de l'expérience indiquent qu'en l'absence de réglementation, les acheteurs réussissent a diminuer le prix de marché et à capturer une part du surplus économique plus importante que celle prévue dans une situation de concurrence idéale. La réglementation affaiblit le pouvoir de marché des acheteurs et atténue la fluctuation des prix du lait cru sur un marché oligopsone sans pour autant réduire l'efficacité du marché, dans l'ensemble.