Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach

The majority of classification models developed have used a pool of financial ratios combined with statistical variable selection techniques to maximize the accuracy of the classifier constructed. Rather than follow this approach, this article seeks to provide an explicit economic basis for the selection of variables for inclusion in bankruptcy models. This search to develop an economic theory of bankruptcy augments the existing bankruptcy prediction literature. Variables which occur in bankruptcy probability expressions derived from the solution of a stochastic optimizing model of firm behaviour are 'proxied' by variables constructed from financial statement data. The random nature of the lifetime of a single firm provides the rationale for the use of duration or hazard-based statistical methods in the validation of the derived bankruptcy probability expressions. Results of the validation exercise confirm that the majority of variables included in the empirical hazard formulation behave in a way that is consistent with the model of the firm. The results highlight the need for developments in the measurement of earnings dispersion.     

Testing poolability in a system of dynamic regressions with nonspherical disturbances

This study analyzes the testing of cross-equation restrictions within a set of regression equations. Through Monte Carlo experiments we examine the actual size of various asymptotic procedures for testing the poolability hypothesis, i.e., equal slope vectors across individual equations. Regression models with both lagged dependent variable regressors and nonspherical disturbances are considered. In these models we find that the performance in finite samples of classical asymptotic test procedures using critical values from either or ² approximations is often rather poor. However, employing the original test statistics with bootstrapped critical values leads to much more accurate inference in finite samples. In an empirical analysis of panel data on GDP growth and unemployment rates in OECD countries it is shown that classical asymptotic tests and bootstrap procedures may lead to conflicting test outcomes. I am indebted to Peter Boswijk, Jan Kiviet, Peter Vlaar, the associate editor and 2 anonymous referees for their constructive comments. I want to thank Geoffrey Garrett for kindly making available his data.     

Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The ‘puzzles’ in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.     

Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effects in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model

The objective of the paper is to explore potential changes in trade induced by a liberalization scenario when taking into account persistence in trading partners. Our approach is based on the development of a gravity model that takes into account the dynamics at the extensive margin of trade as well as the persistence effect of the intensity of trade. Our empirical contribution is on the egg sector, where the persistence in trading partners is acute. Our results indicate that the use of static models underestimate imports of table eggs by more than 50% in Canada, when compared with the use of panel dynamic specification. The dynamic specification helps explain why trade liberalizations often increase trade creation between countries that had already been trading partners, while new trading partnerships remain scarce following trade liberalization. Our results also confirm the importance of sunk cost and their negative impact on the probability of export market participation for developing countries. Those results raise questions regarding the benefit of trade liberalization for developing countries, in terms of accessing new market, if they do not benefit from special treatments.     

Farmer perceptions of legumes and their functions in smallholder farming systems in east Africa

Legumes play an important role in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) farming systems through the provision of food, feed, fuel, income and a range of biophysical benefits, such as soil fertility enhancement and erosion control. However, their full potential is not being realized. The purpose of this study was to assess farmers’ perceptions and knowledge towards legumes and the rationale of farmers for current legume production practices using a survey of 268 farmers in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kenya. Most of the farmers had some knowledge of legumes and their characteristics. However, they had little knowledge of some key functions, including soil erosion control and soil fertility improvement. Most farmers relied on radio and other farmers for legume-related information. Farmers with relatively large livestock holdings ranked provision of livestock feed as an important legume function. We conclude that farmers put more value on short-term benefits of legumes including food and income than long-term benefits such as natural resource management and thus grain legumes are more readily identified by farmers than forage species. Also, we conclude that farmers require more than just information about legumes to increase uptake, they also require improved market access to procure inputs and sell products to realize other benefits that are associated with growing legumes.     

Capital and labor misallocation in the Netherlands

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Using firm-level panel data we analyze the misallocation of capital and labor for the Netherlands in the period 2001–2017. We use the dispersion in marginal...     

The effect of compulsory face mask policies on community mobility in Germany*

There is an ongoing debate about face masks being made compulsory in public spaces to contain COVID-19. A key concern is that such policies could undermine efforts to maintain social distancing and reduce mobility. We provide first evidence on the impact of compulsory face mask policies on community mobility. We exploit the staggered implementation of policies by German states during the first wave of the pandemic and measure mobility using geo-located smartphone data. We find that compulsory face mask policies led to a short-term reduction in community mobility, with no significant medium-term effects. We can rule out even small increases in mobility.     

Determinants of financial worry

Grounded in the transactional stress-coping theory and the Tallis and Eysenck (1994) model of nonpathological worry, the present study sought to advance the conceptual and empirical understanding of financial worry (FW). We positioned objective financial stressors (OFS), subjective financial stressors (SFS), and coping resources as key variables in understanding the determinants of financial worry (FW). The cross-sectional data consisted of responses from a representative sample of 19,385 adults, aged 18 and older, drawn from a large U.S. survey. Hierarchical linear regression results revealed that OFS, SFS, household income, and financial capability (FC) are all key determinants of FW. Furthermore, the results revealed adverse effects of OFS and SFS on FW. These effects were moderated by household income, FC, age, and gender. Implications for future research, employers, practitioners, and policymakers are discussed.