The integration of fuzzy sets and statistics: toward strict falsification in the social sciences

Whilst statistics take up a prominent place in the social science research toolkit, some old problems that have been associated there with have not been fully resolved. These problems include bias through the inclusion of irrelevant variation and the exclusion of relevant variation, which may lead to hidden and spurious correlations in more extreme—however not at all unthinkable—cases. These issues have been addressed by Ragin by building a case for the usage of fuzzy set theory in social science. In this paper, we take a complementary view, insofar as we incorporate fuzzy set theory in current statistical analyses. Apart from shedding new light on the main issues associated with (population based) statistics, this approach also offers interesting prospects for the falsification of theories—rather than single relations between variables—in the social sciences.     

How Robust is the Kearney/Foreign Policy Globalisation Index?

We argue that the Kearney/Foreign Policy (KFP) index of globalisation is constructed by making some problematic assumptions about the measurement, normalisation and weighting of the variables included in the index. We propose alternative measurement, normalisation and weighting rules, and using these rules, recalculate the ranking of the fifty countries, using the original KFP data. Specifically, we use, in various combinations: (i) variables ‘adjusted’ for geographical characteristics of countries; (ii) statistically optimal weights obtained by principal components analysis; (iii) a normalisation rule that treats different years of observations separately. We find that the country rankings change significantly when adjusted variables are used, indicating that the original KFP index is partially measuring geographical differences between countries.     

The Biodiversity Bargaining Problem

We employ cooperative bargaining theory and Nash’s ‘rational threats’ idea to cast light on the biodiversity bargaining problem. The problem of global environmental negotiations is argued to be of the nature of a bargaining problem, in which bargainers must agree on the distribution of cooperative surplus in order to move to the bargaining frontier. We discuss the importance of both efficiency (bargaining frontier) and fairness (recognition of characteristics of bargainers) in the choice of the appropriate contract. We show that the incremental cost contract, used to resolve the biodiversity bargaining problem, is of the form of an extreme point contract that fails to recognise the contributions of the South to the production of cooperative surplus. A rational response to such a contract is the use of threats of biodiversity destruction. Contracts must evince both efficiency and fairness in order to represent lasting solutions.     

Global competition and cooperation in the electronics industry: the case of X-ray equipment, 1900–1970

The electronics industry is often regarded by scholars as an example of a sector driven by endless technological innovation and major competition between a few large companies, thus embodying the common view whereby the free market leads firms to innovate. On the other hand, some business historians have also emphasised that, since the beginning of the twentieth century, most of these companies were engaged in various international cartel agreements. The business and economic history literature on this industry reveals a clear-cut divide between the inter-war years and the post-war era. In this paper, however, we argue that technical and commercial cooperation between large electronics companies continued in various forms despite the spread of anti-trust policies after 1945. In this case study, we explore the global X-ray equipment industry from its beginnings around 1900 to the advent of the CT scanner in the early 1970s. The paper focuses on Siemens and Philips, the two largest manufacturers of radiological equipment. It demonstrates that both companies pursued their commercial and technical cooperation at least until the 1970s, although it was much less overt as during the interwar years.     

Avoiding integrity land mines

How does a large multinational keep thousands of employees, operating in hundreds of countries, honest in a high-pressure business environment? As the chief legal officer at General Electric for nearly 20 years, Ben Heineman was part of the senior management group that sought to do just that--to make sure its executives and employees are moved to do the right thing as strongly as they are motivated to make their numbers. Heineman describes a set of systems that combine the communication of clear expectations with oversight, deterrence, and incentives. Nowhere are the expectations higher--and the sanctions more powerful--than for top executives. Heineman recounts example after example of senior leaders terminated for ethical lapses even when the business consequences of doing so were painful--and even when they had no direct knowledge of the violations occurring on their watch. To make expectations clear throughout the company, GE has systematically sought to set uniform standards that stay well ahead of current legal developments and stakeholders' changing attitudes about corporate accountability. Responsibility for implementing those standards, which are embedded in GE's operating practices, rests with the business leaders in the field. Oversight is both methodical and multifaceted. A host of auditing and assessment systems enables GE to compare the performance of its various business units against one another and against industry benchmarks. Perhaps the most powerful is the company's ombudsman system, which doesn't just allow but requires employees to lodge concerns. Failures to report into the system or up the line, or retaliation in any form, are firing offenses. The current intense focus on board-level governance has missed the point, Heineman argues. It is time to shift the debate from board oversight of the CEO to how top company leaders can most effectively infuse integrity at all levels of the corporation.     

基于J2EE的社保系统框架关键技术的研究应用

文章通过研究基于J2EE架构的社保系统框架,并结合本框架在实际软件项目开发中的运用实例进行实证分析,结果表明:通过运用可重用框架,系统开发人员不仅能极大地提高软件的开发效率和代码的复用度,而且还能增强系统的灵活性和可扩展性,更加有助于系统的维护和升级,从而在很大程度上减轻了系统开发及维护人员的工作负担。     

Market Orientation,Corporate Social Responsibility,and Business Performance

This study examines the moderating effects of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the association between market orientation and firm performance in the context of an emerging economy. The results from a sample of firms that operate in Dubai indicate that CSR has a synergistic effect on the impact of market orientation on business performance. The results of our research on the moderating effects of CSR on market orientation subsets reveal that although CSR moderates the association between customer orientation and business performance, it does not moderate the association between competitive orientation and inter-functional coordination and performance. The results of this study are discussed, and implications for practitioners and researchers are presented.     

THE DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ON PRICE ADJUSTMENT IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS

This paper presents a classification of the different new Phillips curves existing in the literature as a set of choices based on three assumptions: the choice of the structure of price adjustments (Calvo or Taylor), the presence of backward indexation and the type of price contracts (fixed prices or predetermined prices). The paper suggests study of the dynamic properties of each specification, following different monetary shocks on the growth rate of the money stock. We develop the analytical form of the price dynamics, and we display graphics for the responses of prices, output and inflation. We show that the choice made for each of the three assumptions has a strong influence on the dynamic properties. Notably, the choice of the price structure, while often considered as unimportant, is indeed the most influential choice concerning the dynamic responses of output and inflation.     

The Impact of Industrial Market Access Negotiations on African Economies

This paper proposes an extensive data simulation exercise on the likely impact of non-agricultural market access liberalization. The paper analyses real options for tariff cut reduction, special and differential treatment and the treatment of unbound tariffs. This paper also gives indications concerning the likely economic impact of this trade round of industrial market access negotiations on African economies. It shows that an ambitious tariff cut reduction formula would provide greater access to developed country markets for African producers. However, this kind of formula has a major drawback for African countries in the sense that it could accelerate the de-industrialization of African countries and limit incentives to diversify their economies.     

An Examination of the Naïve‐Investor Hypothesis in Accruals Mispricing in Tunisian Firms

This study extends previous studies on accrual anomaly to investigate the emerging market's mispricing of accruals. Using Mishkin (1983) test, hedge portfolio test and Fama and MacBeth (1973) regression, we test whether the Tunisian Stock Exchange price rationally reflects the 1‐year ahead earnings implications of its earnings components. We find that earnings and their cash flow and accrual components are not rationally priced by the market. Additionally, this paper examines the role of sophistication investors in the pricing of earnings and their components. Our results show that accruals for firms with higher level of institutional ownership are not mispriced, while accruals for firms with lower institutional ownership are overpriced significantly by the market.