The applicability of a national focus State of the Future Index (SOFI) on developing nations and the Implications for Stabilisation Operations—A case study of Timor-Leste

This paper argues for the applicability of utilising the State of the Future Index to forecast the future of small developing nations across a range of areas that are considered important determinants of the type of future a developing country is likely to experience. This analysis provides an insight into the benefits of using such a tool for creating more effective policy towards Official Development Assistance (ODA) and its impact on Stabilisation Operations, in addition to measuring the success and effectiveness of previous policies. Timor-Leste was chosen as a case study because of its contemporary policy significance to Australia and the considerable amount of resources that the Australian government has committed, both directly and indirectly, to its reconstruction. Outputs from the State of the Future Index (SOFI) are used to track some of the key variables that will be significant drivers of future change in Timor-Leste. Hence, Timor's progress at a national level can be monitored. Moreover, individual economic, societal and demographic forecasts provide a more in-depth perspective of the drivers of change and future challenges that Timor-Leste will face.     

Market Discipline and Deposit Guarantee: Evidence from Australian Banks

This study examines depositor market discipline of Australian banks and its interaction with the 2008 deposit and wholesale funding guarantee. Prior to 2008 market discipline is found for Australian‐incorporated banks. Depositors did not distinguish between major and small banks, but some differences in the degree of market discipline were found for foreign bank subsidiaries. Following the introduction of the 2008 guarantees, market discipline was reduced except for nonhousehold depositors at banks that did not access the wholesale guarantee. Market discipline is also evidenced at foreign bank branches, but weaker for those accessing the wholesale guarantee.     

Free Trade versus Autarky under Asymmetric Cournot Oligopoly

The paper compares free trade with autarky in an asymmetric multi‐country world under Cournot competition with constant returns to scale and linear demand. We derive respective conditions under which free trade will hurt a country's consumers, benefit its firms, induce it to export, increase its output and raise its welfare. We show that these conditions are linked in a clear order, with one implying the next. We further demonstrate that free trade can reduce world total output and total consumer surplus as well as world welfare. Along the way, we correct several oversights in the literature.     

Urban Warfare Ecology: A Study of Water Supply in Basrah

This article assesses the impact of armed conflict on the drinking water service of Basrah from 1978 to 2013 through an ‘urban warfare ecology’ lens in order to draw out the implications for relief programming and relevance to urban studies. It interprets an extensive range of unpublished literature through a frame that incorporates the accumulation of direct and indirect impacts upon the hardware, consumables and people upon which urban services rely. The analysis attributes a step‐wise decline in service quality to the lack of water treatment chemicals, lack of spare parts, and, primarily, an extended ‘brain‐drain’ of qualified water service staff. The service is found to have been vulnerable to dependence upon foreign parts and people, ‘vicious cycles’ of impact, and the politics of aid and of reconstruction. It follows that practitioners and donors eschew ideas of relief–rehabilitation–development (RRD) for an appreciation of the needs particular to complex urban warfare biospheres, where armed conflict and sanctions permeate all aspects of service provision through altered biological and social processes. The urban warfare ecology lens is found to be a useful complement to ‘infrastructural warfare’ research, suggesting the study of protracted armed conflict upon all aspects of urban life be both deepened technically and broadened to other cases.     

Customer Roles in Self-Service Technology Encounters in a Tourism Context

This paper reports on a study which explored the customer perspective on their roles in SST encounters in a tourism context, through the theoretical lens of service-dominant logic. The study employed short qualitative interviews with airline passengers at an international airport. The findings suggest that customers can assume six roles in an SST encounter which can be viewed as either positive or negative in terms of value creation. Therefore, a key contribution of this paper is the development of a role–experience continuum which depicts the variations in customer experiences of value creation in a tourism context.     

Estimating the bilateral impact of nontariff measures on trade

This paper seeks to estimate how the impact of nontariff measures (NTMs) on trade can vary across exporter–importer pairs. Covering data for the early 2000s, regressions are run at a disaggregate tariff line level and the estimated results are converted into ad valorem equivalents (AVEs). The results underline the importance of conditioning conclusions on trading partners and products and demonstrate that the same NTM can have different—even opposite—effects across exporting countries. One general pattern that emerges is that low‐income importers impose more restrictive NTMs, but that the capacity for exporting countries to address NTMs increases with GDP per capita.     

An examination of restaurant firm financing and the cost of borrowing

The use of debt is prevalent in the restaurant industry. While there have been numerous studies on restaurant capital structure, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and effective interest rate on debt used by restaurant firms. This study uses a sample of 56 publicly traded U.S. restaurant firms for the years 2012–2014. We examine the relationship between effective interest rates and firm performance as measured by approximate Tobin’s Q, return on assets, and return on equity. We find a significant and positive relationship between effective interest rates and return on equity.     

Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity

We develop an optimizing life‐cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets. We show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement, but with an elasticity less than unity. We calibrate our model using data from the US and find that, over the last century, the effect of rising incomes, which promote early retirement, has dominated the effect of rising lifespans. Our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age, despite rising life expectancy, provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century.