Household formation by the young in the United States

A model of household formation by the young is specified and estimated. It was found that the headship rate for the young in the United States depends on income, the cost of housing, the number of families receiving AFDC payments, the age at first marriage for females and for males, and the percentage of males enrolled in college. Household formation by the young is much more sensitive to changes in income and the price of housing than household formation by the entire adult population. The estimated results are used to examine the change in the headship rate from 1961 to 1979 and from 1979 to 1987.     

Testing economic theories of voter behaviour using micro-data

Three hypotheses often encountered in economic analyses of voter behaviour are tested using an extensive data set derived from six consecutive national election studies in the Netherlands in the period 1971–1986. These hypotheses are: (i) the party choice and turnout decisions are taken sequentially and independently by voters; (ii) social gorups play a central role in the decisionmaking processes in the political sphere; (iii) the effect of individual-level variables on party choice is stable over time. The results provide support for the first hypothesis and partial support for the second, where the specific categorization of individuals to be chosen is a matter that needs further investigation. The third hypothesis is rejected by the data: the relationship between the variables chosen and party choice proved to be unstable.     

Stochastic trend,weather and US corn yield variability

Regional corn yield models incorporating stochastic trends, prices and weather variables are estimated. Hypothesis tests suggest yield variability has increased because of an increase in error variance and an increase in weather-related effects. Decomposition of the error variance shows much of its increase is due to an increased correlaion between regional yields.     

Union growth in The Netherlands 1961–1989

An empirical analysis is presented of union growth in The Netherlands over the past decades. The analysis shows that the effect of changes in the industrial structure is very small. It appears that union growth is influenced by wage growth and by unemployment. If real wages increase more than labour productivity or if unemployment declines union membership increases.     

The macroeconomic determinants of academic salaries in Australia

Nominal and real salaries at Australian universities are significantly affected by the behaviour of inflation and unemployment. Australian academics are not fully compensated for inflation. High unemployment has a marked negative effect on real salaries. Predicted changes in real salaries for various combinations of inflation and unemployment, calculated from the econometric model, yield pessimistic conclusions about the future outlook for real academic salaries.     

Amalgamations of universities:are there economics of scale or scope?

This paper estimates a multiple-output cost function for Australian universities. The estimates are used to evaluate the cost savings arising from the amalgamation of two or more institutions. These cost savings in turn are decomposed into those due to economics of scale and those due to economics of scope, using a new measure of economics of scope associated with the amalgamation of two institutions.     

Cointegration analysis and the UK demand for nitrogen fertilizer

Nitrogen fertilizer taxes have been proposed as a means of controlling agricultural ‘over-production’ and nitrate pollution of water courses in the EC. This paper constructs time-series models of fertilizer demand which provide quantitative information relevant to this issue. Time-series data on the use of nitrogen fertilizer in UK agriculture is found to have a unit root with non-zero drift coupled with a one-time change in drift after testing against the alternative hypothesis that the process is trend-stationary with a break in trend. The stochastic component of the nitrogen use series is cointegrated with the ratio of the price of nitrogen fertilizer to the price of agricultural output. Appropriate error correction models are estimated. Both the short-run and long-run price elasticities of the response of nitrogen use are found to be rather low. Some brief policy conclusions are drawn.     

Interest rates,expectations and the credibility of the Bank of Spain

The purpose of the paper is to pinpoint the date of the change of monetary policy regime which occurred in Spain during the year 1984, when it moved away from controlling monetary aggregates towards interest rate targeting. The most likely date for the change is estimated and, surprisingly, there is evidence that agents learned about the new intermediate target quite rapidly.A week after the change, the term structure of interest rates showed how market agents attributed much more informational content to interest rate changes than they had previously. Two types of transitions are tried: a one-step and a gradual logistic swithing function.     

A model of the skill composition of US immigration

A human capital model is specified to explain the skill composition of US immigration. A unique set of panel data (57 source countries and 15 annual observations) and a methodology not previously used to study a demographic phenomenon are employed to estimate the model. Coefficients on time-invariant variables are recovered by means of the Hausman - Taylor instrumental variable procedure, which yields considerably different results than the generalized least squares model.