New Economic Indicators for Australia, 1949-84

This article attempts to identify and describe the main characteristics of Australia'a business cycles during the period 1949 to 7984 with the aid of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, using the methodology of the International Economic lndicator project at the Center for lnternational Business Cycle Research, Columbia University, New York. The methodology to identify Australia's classical cycle and growth cycle chronologies is discussed. Reviews are made of the lead-lag patterns of, first, both chronologies in relation to the specific cycles of the individual coincident indicators, and second, the growth chronology in relation to the leading and lagging indicators. Australia's growth cycle chronology is compared with the chronology of other countries, notably of United States, United Kingdom, and Japan. The general uses of an indicator analysis are reviewed. An appendix compares the reference cycle chronologies previously available for Australia and the indicators used to obtain them.     

An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.     

Correlates of Drug Testing Attitudes in a Sample of Blue Collar Workers

Using responses from 1429 workers employed in the wood products industry, we examine the relationship between drug testing (DT) attitudes and several demographic, organizational, job attitude, and job outcome variables. After controlling for age and marital status, analyses revealed moderate correlations between DT attitudes and alcohol and drug variables, DT program characteristics, organizational, and work attitude variables. DT attitudes were weakly but significantly related to absences, late work arrivals, accidents, and injuries. Implications of the findings and future research suggestions are discussed.     

A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.     

Moral Disengagement in Processes of Organizational Corruption

This paper explores Albert Bandura's concept of moral disengagement in the context of organizational corruption. First, the construct of moral disengagement is defined and elaborated. Moral disengagement is then hypothesized to play a role in the initiation of corruption by both easing and expediting individual unethical decision-making that advances organizational interests. It is hypothesized to be a factor in the facilitation of organizational corruption through dampening individuals’ awareness of the ethical content of the decisions they make. Finally, it is hypothesized to contribute to the perpetuation of corruption in organizations, because if individuals who have a greater propensity to morally disengage are more likely to make decisions that advance organizational interests regardless of the ethicality of those decisions, they may also be rewarded for those decisions in terms of organizational advancement. Together these studies form an argument that moral disengagement plays an important role in processes of organizational corruption.     

An unsuitable job for a woman: a ‘native category’ approach to gender,diversity and cross-cultural management

This paper takes an ethnographic study of the recruitment of women at BMW MINI between 2003 and 2006 as the basis to explore the impact of the concepts of ‘native categories’ and ‘recontextualisation’ on diversity management and cross-cultural management. I consider how managers' and workers' subconsciously held cultural categories relating to gender and work affected efforts to increase the number of female line workers in the plant, and how these were further complicated by the recontextualisation of German native categories in a British context. In doing so, this paper will develop a better understanding of the way native categories affect management and international business, provide an addition to the literature on recontextualisation, by introducing the concept of ‘native categories’ to research exploring the effects of recontextualisation on cross-cultural knowledge transfer, international human resource management strategy and marketing, and, finally, develop some understanding of how diversity management initiatives can fail in practice.     

The Influence of Entrepreneurial Risk Assessment on Venture Launch or Growth Decisions

Entrepreneurs are thought to engage in riskier behavior than nonentrepreneurs, yet little empirical evidence supports that intuitively appealing notion. We argue instead that differences in information, not risk aversion, may explain the decision to launch or grow a venture. We separately test risk taking propensity and risk assessment. We hypothesize that entrepreneurs will not differ from nonentrepreneurs on risk taking propensity. Additionally, we propose and test a model of risk assessment. The sample size for this exploratory study is n=53 with 30 respondents declaring themselves as entrepreneurs and 23 declaring themselves as nonentrepreneurs. The study’s design is a simulation. Each respondent is provided with data on a potential acquisition that would result in either the launch of a new venture or significant growth for an existing firm. Consistent with the hypotheses, the results show no difference between entrepreneurs and nonentrepreneurs on the risk taking measure. We also find that we can predict entrepreneurial behavior based on risk assessment. We close with a discussion of limitations and directions for future research.