On specification testing of ordered discrete choice models

We discuss how to test the specification of an ordered discrete choice model against a general alternative. Two main approaches can be followed: tests based on moment conditions and tests based on comparisons between parametric and nonparametric estimations. Following these approaches, various statistics are proposed and their asymptotic properties are discussed. The performance of the statistics is compared by means of simulations. An easy-to-compute variant of the standard moment-based statistic yields the best results in models with a single explanatory variable. In models with various explanatory variables the results are less conclusive, since the relative performance of the statistics depends on both the fit of the model and the type of misspecification that is considered.     

桂林市旅游主导行业错位:成因及对策分析

桂林市旅行社业发展中最突出的问题是主导行业错位,表现为旅行社业的收入比重过低,收益下降。主要原因是:旅行社数量增速过快,形成散、乱、小、差的局面;旅游产品结构和部分旅游服务设施供给结构不合理;竞争形式单一。解决这些问题的思路是:规范旅游市场,形成分工明确、优势互补的旅行社结构;调整和优化旅行社产品和旅游设施供给结构;着力创新旅游产品和品牌,提高旅游服务质量,提高旅行社的综合竞争力。     

从行为金融学的角度分析非法集资产生的原因

非法集资在中国已经有数十年的历史,尽管公安部门、金融监管部门以及工商行政管理部门曾多次联手打击,却仍屡禁不止。本文试图从行为金融学角度分析其产生的原因并对非法集资的预防和惩治给出了一些建议。     

中美经贸关系的制度经济学探析

由于中美两国政治制度、经济方式、意识形态、社会文化等方面的差异巨大及美国全球霸权的思想指导,使美国政府和国内的部分势力认为中国的经济发展和现代化将使中国成为美国的下一个竞争对手。因此,在刚刚结束的党的十七大背景下,从正式制度和非正式制度角度重新梳理一下中美两国经贸关系的发展特征,有利于未来中美两国经贸关系健康发展。     

浅谈规范建筑市场业主行为

建筑市场业主行为的不规范,不仅直接损害了承包商的合法权益,而且影响到工程质量和投资效益.特别是在目前建筑市场还存在着一些体制和机制问题的情况下,很有必要对建筑市场业主行为进行规范和管理,并结合实际情况采取对策和措施,建立长效管理机制,以促进建筑市场的健康发展.     

Volatility transmission along the money market yield curve

Volatility Transmission along the Money Market Yield Curve. - The authors model the volatility of money market interest rates — and the transmission of volatility - along the money market yield curve in the UK, Germany, France and Spain. They find a significant volatility transmission from overnight to longer-term money market rates in France, Spain and the U.K. They also find that the countries with lower (higher) reserve requirements tend to have higher (lower) interbank interest rate volatility. However, reserve requirements generate a perverse seasonal effect at the end of the maintenance period.     

Long-Term or Short-Term Managerial Incentive Contracts

This paper deals with the strategic role of the temporal dimension of contracts in a duopoly market. Is it better for a firm to sign long-term incentive contracts with managers or short-term contracts? For the linear case, with strategic substitutes (complements) in the product market, the incentive variables are also strategic substitutes (complements). It is shown that a long-term contract makes a firm a leader in incentives, while a short-term contract makes it a follower. We find that, under Bertrand competition, in equilibrium one firm signs a long-term contract and the other firm short-term incentive contracts; however, under Cournot competition, the dominant strategy is to sign long-term incentive contracts.     

本币名义汇率低于真实汇率是保持国际竞争力的有效手段

本文表达了如下想法:①名义汇率围绕真实汇率上下波动的调整,会促使一国国际收支恶化或者改善;②美元对人民币贬值并不一定能够满足马歇尔———勒纳条件和解决中美国际收支失衡问题,因为失衡问题主要是美国的国内因素以及限制对华技术出口与中国商品进口所引起的;③我国作为一个发展中国家,应该适度控制名义汇率,使其低于真实汇率,才能支持劳动力优势,保持国际收支顺差;④国际收支长期盈余,是我国经济增长和经济安全的保证。     

差距指数与后发优势指数研究

后发优势是发展中国家因为落后而具备的一种快速发展的潜能,许多学者从定性方面对后发优势进行了分析。本文试图从定量这一全新的视角来审视后发优势,提出了差距、差距优势、差距优势指数、后发优势指数的概念,对决定这些指数的相关函数的自变量因子进行分析,在此基础上,提出了差距优势是普遍存在的,差距优势是一种潜在的后发优势,这种潜在的后发优势转化为现实的后发优势需要3个方面的必要条件,并对这些必要条件进行了简要的分析归纳。     

农户社会资本及其对借贷行为的影响

从微观层面上，社会资本作为农户拥有的重要资源，对农户生产、生活的各方面产生广泛而深刻的影响。文章着重分析了社会资本在农户借贷中的作用机制，认为农户正规借贷和非正规借贷都离不开社会资本，但是对于二者的作用方式、广度和深度有所不同。