Gaining from disorder: Making the case for antifragility in purchasing and supply chain management

The purchasing and supply chain management (P&SCM) discipline assumes that supply chains are fragile systems, hence taking a “negative” approach toward disorder. Building on Taleb’s concept of antifragility—the ability to gain from disorder rather than avoiding it—, we challenge this traditional assumption. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed that some companies were indeed able to gain from disorder, whereas some of those that focused too much on robustness and resilience lost ground. Building robust and resilient supply chains may no longer be enough to thrive in today’s highly volatile business world. This article sparks a new debate by introducing antifragility to the P&SCM literature and provides new directions for future research.     

Currency fluctuations and the French–U.S. trade balance: evidence from 118 industries

The impact of currency depreciations on trade has inspired a large body of research. Recent studies have examined industry-level trade, often using cointegration analysis, finding that a significant fraction of industries respond positively to devaluations. Oftentimes, adjustment lags result in a “J curve” effect, where devaluations hurt the trade balance temporarily. This study examines the specific case of trade between the United States and France, but finds that these flows are less sensitive than has been shown for other country pairs. Only 30 of 118 industries see increased trade balances after a dollar depreciation, and virtually none follow any type of a “J curve.” Certain industry sectors are more sensitive than others, however. Examining the SITC classifications of those 30 industries, we find that many of them are clustered in the SITC 700 (Machinery and Transport Equipment) and 800 (Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles) categories. In particular, clothing and footwear, as well as electrical equipment, are particularly affected.     

Inequality and growth in the United States: is there asymmetric response at the state level?

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of economic growth on income inequality in the U.S. used state-level data and an ARDL panel model to conclude that economic growth worsens income inequality in the U.S. In this article, we use the same data set but an ARDL time-series model applied to each state in the U.S. to show that the above conclusion is only valid in 20 states. Additionally, we use a nonlinear ARDL approach to show that the effects are asymmetric in the short run as well as in the long run. Significant long-run asymmetric effects reveal that in 28 states both an increase and a decrease in real output have worsened income distribution.     

Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?

In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high-inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

The J-Curve and Japan–China commodity trade

Previous studies that have tested the J-Curve phenomenon for Japan or China employed either aggregate trade data between each country and the rest of the world, or aggregate bilateral data between two trade partners. These studies have found no support for the J-Curve. Suspecting that their models could suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate bilateral trade flows between the two countries and examine trade by 73 industries. We find evidence of the J-Curve phenomenon in 24 industries, a unique finding for trade between Japan and China.