Transition and development of innovation capacities in Hungary

The paper attempts to synthesize the conclusions of theoretical works dealing with innovation processes and technological strategies in the frame of a national innovation system with some results from a survey of the national innovation system in Hungary.
An important focus of the paper is on the transition situation in Hungary and the role science and technology play and are expected to play to influence the competitiveness of the country. Special attention is therefore given to the new actors in the system. The conclusions are expressed in the form of premises dealing with the multiple impacts of the transition on the Hungarian innovation system.     

Censored Quantile Regressions of Chronic and Transient Seasonal Poverty in Rwanda

It is crucial for social policy in Less Developed Countriesto identify correlates of poverty at the household level. Thishas been done in the literature by estimating household povertyequations typically with Tobit and Probit models. However, whenthe errors in these equations are non-normal and heteroscedastic,which is usually expected, these models deliver biased estimates.Using quarterly data from Rwanda in 1983, we reject the normalityand homoscedasticity assumptions for household chronic and transientlatent poverty equations. We treat this problem by estimatingcensored quantile regressions. Our results of censored quantileregressions and of inconsistent Tobit regressions are substantiallydifferent. However, in the case of chronic poverty the signsof the apparently significant coefficients are generally inagreement, while for seasonal transient poverty different variableshave significant effects for the two estimation methods. Oursecond contribution is to study, for the first time, correlatesof poverty indicators based on quarterly consumptions. Our resultsshow that in Rwanda different correlates are significant forchronic poverty and for transient seasonal poverty. The effectsof the main inputs (land and labour) are more important forthe chronic component of poverty than for the transient one.Household location and socio-demographic characteristics playimportant roles that are consistent with usual explanationsof poverty in the literature.     

Multidimensional inequality comparisons: A compensation perspective

We provide a unified treatment of the two approaches pioneered by Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982, 1987) [3], [4] by resorting to compensation principles in the bivariate case. We treat the attributes of individual utility asymmetrically by assuming that one attribute can be used to compensate another. Our main result consists of two sufficient second-order stochastic dominance conditions. In the case where the compensated variable has a discrete distribution, the distribution of the compensating variable must satisfy a condition which degenerates to the Sequential Generalized Lorenz test for identical marginal distributions of the compensated variable. Furthermore, the distributions of the compensated variable must satisfy the Generalized Lorenz test.     

Comparing econometric methods to empirically evaluate activation programs for job seekers

We test whether different identification strategies give similar results when evaluating activation programs. Budgetary problems at the Dutch unemployment insurance (UI) administration in March 2010 caused a sharp drop in the availability of these programs. Using administrative data provided by the UI administration, we evaluate the effect of the program (1) exploiting the policy discontinuity as a quasi-experiment, (2) using dynamic matching assuming conditional independence, and (3) applying the timing-of-events model. All three strategies use the same data to consider the same program in the same setting, and show that the program reduces job finding directly after enrollment. However, the magnitude of the estimated drop in job finding differs between the three estimation methods. In the longer run, all three methods show a zero effect on employment.     

Strategic response: A key to understand how cheap talk works

Experimental protocols testing the effectiveness of cheap talk are numerous but have generated conflicting results. The theoretical interpretation of hypothetical bias as a strategic response according to the perceived consequence could be the missing key to understand these opposite results from the literature. Increasing evidence suggests that this bias rises from subjects’ perception of how stated preferences surveys will be used; some subjects believing that stated valuations can impact the price of the good, while others that it will influence its provision. Subjects strategically respond by adjusting their declared values accordingly. This paper reports experimental findings supporting the presence of strategic response, showing that cheap talk operates by mitigating these behaviors and potentially explaining cheap talk's heterogeneous results.     

On the monetary impact of fashion design piracy

Whether to legally protect original fashion designs against piracy is an ongoing debate among legislators, industry groups, and legal academic circles, which has gained little exposure in the marketing literature. We combine data on the growth of fashion designs, price markups, and industry statistics to develop a formal analysis of the essential questions at the base of the debate. We distinguish between three effects: Acceleration, whereby the presence of a pirated design increases the awareness of the design; Substitution, which represents the loss of sales due to consumers who would have purchased the original design, yet instead buy the knockoff; and loss because of Overexposure of the design resulting from the design's ubiquity. Using data-driven simulation analysis, we find that for the items analyzed (handbags and apparel), overexposure emerged as having a stronger negative effect (on average) on the original's profitability than the positive effect of acceleration. Both effects are considerably larger than that of substitution. This result is of particular interest given that industry groups have consistently focused on the damage caused by substitution. We also show that the effect of a legally mandated postponement on the introduction of a knockoff is non-monotonic for short lag: A short time lag may not affect the original design's NPV, and in fact may even damage it. For the ranges we analyzed, the positive effect of the protection period is observed primarily for time lags of over one year.