Estimating and comparing learning curves in three Asian economies

This paper consists of two parts. In the first, a method is suggested to isolate the effects of scale economies on learning phenomena by integrating the conventionally specified learning curve with the production function in neoclassical economics. The problem of establishing the variable for measuring experience is dealt with in the estimation procedure. Using this method we estimated the learning curves of 20 industries in the manufacturing sector in Singapore using data taken from 1961 to 1991. More modern industries like electronics, precision instruments and pharmaceutics have steeper learning curves than older industries. Among traditional industries, the food and beverage industry has a greater learning potential than others. In the second part of the paper, the learning curves for 11 common industries in South Korea, Japan and Singapore were estimated and compared. The Japanese industries are found to have steeper learning curves compared to those in Singapore and South Korea.The authors are from the Department of Business Policy, Faculty of Business Administration, National University of Singapore. The authors would like to thank Ms Tan Mui Lee for her assistance in preparing the time series data used for this study.     

新型产业组织分析范式构建研究——从SCP到DIM

随着现代产业分工的精细化与企业间关系的网络化发展,产品之间的竞争已经由单个企业与单个企业之间的竞争转变为企业簇群与企业簇群之间的竞争。本文以此为出发点,通过引入产品价值网络的概念体系,试图在整合、修正传统SCP分析框架的基础上,构建一个基于模块化理论的新型产业组织分析范式——“DIM”①分析框架,以期从立体多维层面实现对现代产业组织结构、行为、绩效的更为全面研究。     

企业贯彻ISO9000标准的基本思路

总结了我国企业在贯标、认证过程中的经验和教训，提出从抓住两条主线和从体系着眼，从要素着手的一整套经验证为行之有效的思路和方法。     

Ownership, institutions, and capital structure: Evidence from China

We employ a unique data set to explore the role of ownership structure and institutional development in debt financing of non-publicly traded Chinese firms. We show that state ownership is positively associated with leverage and firms’ access to long-term debt, while foreign ownership is negatively associated with all measures of leverage. Surprisingly, firms in better developed regions are associated with reduced access to long-term debt, suggesting the availability of alternative financing channels and the tightening of the lending standards under the on-going banking reform. The combination of ownership structures and institutions explains up to 6% of the total variation in firms’ leverage decisions, while firm characteristics alone explain no more than 8% of the variation. Further, we show that non-state-owned firms tend to have lower total and short-term debt than their state-owned counterparts in less developed regions. Finally, we show that state-owned firms’ easy access to long-term debt is positively associated with long-term investment and negatively associated with firm performance.     

第三方物流在动态质押供应链融资模式中的作用

本文在简要介绍供应链融资发展历程的基础上,引出了基于动态质押的供应链融资模式,并详细分析了第三方物流在此融资模式中的作用。其作用体现在第三方物流提供的一体化服务可使动态质押融资业务高效、顺利的完成,降低整个融资系统的风险等。同时,第三方物流还可为贷款企业的产销活动提供优质的物流服务。     

当前顺差、外汇储备和资产泡沫关系探讨

2006年我国贸易顺差达到创历史纪录的1774.7亿美元.顺差过多导致外汇储备过多,人民币升值压力增大,使得宏观调控特别是货币政策效果减弱,并且催生货币流动性过剩,导致国内股市和房地产有泡沫化趋势.目前大多数观点认为这种资产泡沫化趋势如不采取有力措施尽快调控将产生重大危害.本文认为过度资产泡沫很可能演变为金融危机,但是温和的泡沫对于目前国内经济是有利的.通过制定合理的政策,可以发挥资产泡沫的正面作用,缓解目前产能过剩与顺差的问题.     

国家级新区功能定位及发展建议——基于GRNN潜力评价方法

从规模总量、经济外向性、创新能力及交通区位4个方面的18个指标构建国家级新区发展潜力评价指标体系,运用GRNN(广义回归神经网络)方法,以9个国家级新区及8个具有重要国家级新区潜质的区域(后统称新区)为对象,对其母城进行新区发展潜力综合评价。研究发现:1新区发展潜力差距较大,其中上海、深圳、广州和天津的新区在发展潜力上具有绝对优势;沿海新区普遍经济外向程度高于内陆新区;重庆是内陆唯一一个可与上海、深圳、广州和天津媲美的国家级新区母城,其在规模总量和经济外向性方面具有显著优势。2在对GRNN评价结果进行聚类分析的基础上,将17个新区分为国际竞争型、全国中心型、区域中心型和特殊战略型4类功能模式。文章最后结合各新区设立的战略目的和潜力评价结果,梳理了不同类型新区功能关联,并针对不同功能模式的新区在其母城支撑条件下,实现其功能定位的实施路径进行了初步探讨。     

Potential Growth of the US Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue?

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth through 2004 and presents medium-term projections for the U.S. economy. We attribute a substantial portion of productivity gains over the past decade to production and use of information technology equipment and software. In the most recent years, we also identify a growing contribution from sources outside the technology- producing sectors. Our base-case projection for the GDP growth rate is almost exactly three percent. We emphasize the substantial range of uncertainty by presenting an optimistic projection of 3.5 percent and a pessimistic projection of only 1.9 percent. JEL Classification D240,E230     

浙江民营经济增长要素的实证分析

本文从要素投入角度,对浙江民营经济的高速增长进行实证研究.通过对历史数据的计量分析,揭示了制度改进与技术进步是推动浙江民营经济增长的首要因素,资本积累的作用其次,而劳动投入贡献最少.从走势看,近几年浙江民营经济总体呈粗放型增长态势,主要表现为以高强度的资金投入来推动经济的高增加.随着体制优势的不断淡化,以及宏观调控对投资的影响,要继续保持浙江民营经济的快速发展,当务之急,是大力加快技术创新,转变增长方式.     

县域经济发展中的农业技术推广转化

加强农业技术推广转化,在科学发展观指导下发展县域经济,是解决"三农"问题,建设社会主义新农村的重要途径。目前,我国农业技术推广与成果转化已形成了省、市(地)、县、乡四级推广网络,但是农业技术推广转化存在些新情况、新的问题,为加强农业技术推广转化,促进县域经济发展,应制定一系列对策。