我国流动性过剩的原因、现状及对策建议

在我国经济结构和地区发展都不平衡的影响下,当前的流动性过剩只是一种相对过剩。本文结合2005年以来经济发展水平和宏观政策效果,分析了目前流动性过剩的程度,结果表明这只是由于地区和行业经济发展不平衡所导致的资金分布不均的资源错配。本文认为地区经济和行业经济同步均衡发展才是防止流动性过剩卷土重来的根本方法。     

加强大学生人际交往能力培养的思考

大学生是社会未来发展的主力军,良好的人际交往能力是其发展和成才的重要条件。但是,由于家庭、社会和自身等某些原因,许多大学生的人际交往能力偏弱,影响了自身的成长。文章分析了大学生人际交往能力的现状及成因,并从学校引导和自身努力两方面提出改进措施。     

Is the service sector different in size heterogeneity?

We examined whether significant differences in size heterogeneity exist between the service and the manufacturing industries by using PL exponents as the proxy for intra-industry size heterogeneity. For the purpose, we analyzed firm size distribution (FSD) and estimated the PL exponents, on the right tails of FSD, of the service and manufacturing industries in Korea for the period 2008–2012 using the Business Activity Survey dataset created by the Korean National Statistical Office As a result, we observed that the estimates of the PL exponents for the service industry are lower than those for the manufacturing industry (\(\upalpha _\mathrm{Service}<\upalpha _\mathrm{Manufacturing}\)) regardless of size variable, year, and dataset. This relationship may be related to the weaker negative relationship between the size and growth of the service industry, which made the slope of the PL distribution in the right tail of the FSD smoother. This finding implies that size heterogeneity may be more distinctive in the service industry than in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the PL exponents of sales were larger than those of assets and smaller than those of employees (\(\upalpha _\mathrm{Asset}<\upalpha _\mathrm{Sales}<\upalpha _\mathrm{Employee}\)) regardless of industry, year, and dataset. We also observed the PL exponents in the survived-firm dataset to decrease, compared to those in the all-firm dataset.     

从信息化人力资源管理到大数据人力资源管理的演进——以腾讯为例

当前大数据人力资源管理的研究日益增加,然而大多数文章中所谓的大数据人力资源管理仍是对信息化人力资源管理概念的修补,少有研究界定信息化人力资源管理和大数据人力资源管理的区别和演进关系.本文基于资源基础观,从有形、无形和人力等资源的动态演进出发,对腾讯人力资源数据管理演进过程进行探索性案例研究.研究发现:大数据人力资源管理在信息化人力资源管理的基础上有了质的变化,大数据人力资源管理能够为组织带来竞争优势.研究进一步归纳出大数据人力资源管理与企业竞争优势的逻辑模型.     

利率管制、LPR与完全市场化下的货币政策传导机制:理论对比与实证检验

2019年8月,中国人民银行正式启用修订后的贷款基础利率（LPR）,标志着中国利率市场化改革步入收官阶段。这使得有关利率市场化能否保障货币政策有效性并从根本上改善货币政策传导效率的探讨再度成为焦点。鉴于此,文章构建了DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型,详细对比了不同市场化程度下利率政策的有效性和传导效率,主要得出以下三点结论：第一,随着市场化程度的不断加深,产出、通胀与企业价值对利率调控的反应愈加敏感,表明利率市场化改革能够优化利率的宏微观传导效率;第二,模拟分析显示,完全市场化将会大幅降低利率政策的宏观传导效率,同时还可能诱发逆向选择并导致微观传导渠道失灵,因此货币当局仍应对利率完全市场化持必要谨慎;最后,实证检验结果表明,LPR的推出进一步提高了利率传导效率,这说明在完全市场化的初级阶段,采取LPR等过渡元素逐渐加强市场定价主导地位不失为双轨合一过程中的有益尝试。     

On the reliability of unitizing textual continua: Further developments

This paper builds on an agreement coefficient proposed by Krippendorff (Content analysis: an introduction to its methodology, 2013) for measuring the reliability of unitizing and coding continuous phenomena, for example, of texts, videos, or sound recordings. It serves three purposes: It modifies Krippendorff’s definition which turned out to behave not as expected when applied to more than two observers, coders, or annotators. It extends this reliability measure to a family of four coefficients able to assess the reliabilities of diverse properties of unitized continua. It adds a way to obtain the confidence intervals of these coefficients as well as the probability of failing to reach targeted reliability levels. And it describes and provides access to free software that calculates all values of this family of reliability coefficients.     

Theories of the (state-owned) firm

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) contribute approximately 10% of the world’s GDP. SOEs at one time were predicted to disappear from the economic landscape of the world, but today SOEs are growing more prevalent in the world economy. The current theories of the firm that form the pillars of the management discipline largely ignore the theoretical differences that SOEs introduce into the conceptualization of the firm. Therefore, we extend four core theories of the firm by incorporating SOEs as a mainstream (not special or marginal) organizational form into these theories. We focus specifically on property rights theory, transaction cost theory, agency theory, and resource-based theory, culminating in a research agenda with 12 testable propositions.     

The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area: a multi regime model

Academic research and policy makers in the Euro area are currently concerned with the threat of debt deflation and secular stagnation in Europe. Empirical evidence seems to suggest that secular stagnation and debt deflation in the Euro area may be rather slowly developing. Yet what appears as major peril is that debt deflation with a lack of economic growth, rising real interest rates and further rising debt may trigger household defaults, defaults of firms and banks, rise of risk premia, and default risk of certain sectors of the economy or sovereign defaults. It is this rising default and financial risk that may lead to a regime change to a slowly moving debt crisis with high financial risk and high financial stress. In order to explore those issues, a macro policy model of Svensson type is introduced, exhibiting a regime of low and high financial stress. Then, a four dimensional multi-regime VAR is employed to an Euro area data set to support the theoretical model and the claim that in particular Southern Euro area countries are affected by debt deflation and financial market stress.