Using Aggregate Time Series Variables to Forecast Notices of Default

This paper emphasizes the economic variables and data used to model notices of default in California. Forecast models are notoriously complicated and require sophisticated software to run. Few businesses, particularly small enterprises, have the necessary resources to engage in large-scale model building. Datasets can be difficult and expensive to obtain and usually require significant analysis. The paper focuses on methodology to give the model a general appeal.     

The social media faces of major global financial service brands

With the advent of social media, brand management has become not only more difficult, but also increasingly critical to the credibility and reputation of firms. Moreover, consumer-generated content and its rapid diffusion takes control over advertising-intended messages away from brand managers. Financial services brand managers will not fully be able to control the destinies of their brands, but at the very least they need to be involved in the conversations that speak about their brand. This article suggests a powerful analytical tool Chernoff Faces, which can add to financial service brand managers’ arsenal.     

Estimating Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP Using Consumption Information

This paper estimates permanent and transitory components of GNP using an unobserved components model that incorporates consumption information. Agents that discriminate between permanent and transitory as well as anticipated and unanticipated changes in GNP signal the persistence of a change in GNP by the size of their consumption response. Consumption data have previously been employed to discern permanent and transitory properties of GNP using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The unobserved components approach used in this paper has several advantages over the VAR approach and provides new evidence concerning the two components.     

Computer systems for energy management in hotels

This paper reviews the use of computer-based energy management and control systems and relates these to the needs of a hotel. The role of these computer-based energy management systems is discussed within the context of an energy management policy and programme. Finally, the current use of this technology by hotels in the U.K. is surveyed.