Employment,schooling and productivity growth

Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of labour demand and labour productivity growth in The Netherlands. Assuming an aggregate production function with as factors capital and 3 types of labour, distinguished by educational attainment, cost minimization leads to a set of 3 labour demand relations to be estimated on time series data. Using the estimates and the implied elasticities, aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into factor substitution, autonomous factors, labour time shortening, economies of scale, utilization rates and the increased educational level of the working population. The contributions of substitution, utilization rates and education appear to be substantial, notably in the seventies.

List of symbols

Variables a _i Efficiency index of skill leveli - C production - h _i working-time index for skill leveli - g _i steady-state growth rate of skill leveli - K capital stock - L _i employment volume of skill leveli - L _i ^* desired level of labour skill leveli - p output price - p ^* desired output price - s _i ^* long-run static labour shares in the production value - p _k rental price of capital - P index of total factor productivity - P _l index of labour productivity - u _i utilization rate of skill leveli - u _k utilization rate of capital - w _i wage rate for skill leveli - y production volume - y _yij Hicks partial elasticities of complementarity - _i steady-state cost share of skill leveli - _k Bk steady-state cost share of capital - _f lf highest level price index in cost function nesting - _g 4 intermediate level price index in cost function nesting - _h 4 lowest level price index in cost function nesting - _i steady-state relative wage share of skill leveli - _ij Allen partial elasticities of substitution Parameters d _i l adjustment speed of skill leveli - d _p price adjustment speed - M mark-up on marginal costs - scale elasticity of production - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = 3, g - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i = k, h - _i distribution parameter in cost function,i =1, 2 - _i autonomous labour productivity growth for skill leveli - _i cost share of skill level in base year - _f production cost index in base year - _i hours elasticity in labour efficiency index - group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₃ and (K, (L ₁,L ₂)) - _g Og group elasticity of substitution betweenK and (L ₁,L ₂) - _h 6h group elasticity of substitution betweenL ₁ andL ₂ We would like to thank B. Downey, G.M.M. Gelauff, A. Nieuwenhuis, J.M.M. Ritzen, J.C. Siebrand and an unknown referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts.     

Lifecourse migration and redistribution of the elderly across U.S. regions and metropolitan areas

This analysis investigates the assertion that the baby-boom cohorts, by virtue of their large size and new lifecourse redistribution tendencies, are likely to initiate significant shifts in the distribution of the elderly population as these cohorts enter into the 65-and-older age categories. The author contends that cohorts' pre-elderly lifecourse migration patterns should be incorporated into studies of elderly population distribution shifts. 2 questions are addressed: will the new lifecourse migration patterns provide for a more deconcentrated redistribution of the baby-boom cohorts, both prior to and after their entry into the elderly age categories, than the lifecourse migration patterns followed by earlier cohorts; and will the new lifecourse distribution pattern lead, in the long run, to a significantly more deconcentrated distribution of the elderly population. The examination of these 2 questions focuses, largely, on redistribution across 9 broad regional and metropolitan area groupings defined on the basis of 3 census regions -- the North (combining the Northeast and Midwest census regions), the South, and the West -- and 3 categories of metropolitan status -- large metropolitan areas (those with 1980 populations exceeding 1 million), other metropolitan areas, and nonmetropolitan areas. The comparison of "new" versus "old" lifecourse migration patterns contrasts the census-based age-specific migration stream rates, registered over the 1975-80 period, with those registered over the 1965-70 period. Given the sharp and broad-based shift toward deconcentrated redistribution which characterized practically all segments of the population during the 1970s, it is assumed that the age-specific migration patterns observed over the 1975-80 period approximate the more deconcentrated redistribution tendencies which will be adopted by the baby-boom cohorts (and their successors) over the remainder of their lifecourse. The 1965-70 net migration rates point up the aggregate redistribution implications associated with the "old" lifecourse migration stream patterns. Among the rates for North large metropolitan areas, the only positive net migration is observed for the 25-29 age category; the greatest net outmigration rate is shown for the 65-69 age category. The rates for South nonmetropolitan areas are negative for all age categories under age 55, and most accentuated outmigration is shown during the young-adult years. The positive net migration exhibited for the older adult and post retirement ages reflects the low outmigration rates from nonmetropolitan areas during these ages and the slight peaking of immigration for these years. The results of this analysis imply that more attention should be devoted to migration, over the entirety of the lifecourse, in future studies of population redistribution.     

Book Reviews

Anthony J. Whitten, Sengli J. Damanik, Jazanul Anwar and Nazaruddin Hisyam, The Ecology of Sumatra, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, Second Edition, 1987, pp. 583 + xx.

Christine Drake, National Integration in Indonesia: Patterns and Policies, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1989, pp. 354 + xvi. Cloth: US$ 35.00.

Geoffrey B. Hainsworth (ed.), Environmental Linkages, Halifax: School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 1985, pp. 97.

R. Repetto et al., Wasting Assets: Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts, Washington DC: World Resources Institute, June 1989, pp. 69 + vi. Paper: US$10.00.

William E. James, Seiji Naya and Gerald M. Meier, Asian Development: Economic Success and Policy Lessons, Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press, 1989, pp. 281 + Xviii.

Robert B. Dickie and Thomas A. Layman, Foreign Investment and Government Policy in the Third World: Forging Common Interests in Indonesia and Beyond, London: MacMillan, 1988, pp. 240 + xxxi. £35.

Alan Gelb and Associates, Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? New York: Oxford University Press, for the World Bank, 1988, pp. 357 + x. $32.50.

Benjamin Higgins, The Road Less Travelled: A Development Economist's Quest, History of Development Studies 2, Canberra: National Centre For Development Studies, the Australian National University, pp. 204 + x. Paper: A$20.00

BRIEFLY NOTED: Sarwar Hobohm, Indonesia to 1993: Breakthrough in the Balance, London: Economist Intelligence Unit, Special Report no. 2012, 1989, pp. 91, £190 for this Plus the Companion Report, Indonesia to 1991: Can Momentum be Regained?

Geoffrey Hainsworth and Hasan Poerbo (eds), Local Resource Management: Towards Sustainable Development, Halifax: School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 1987, pp. 69 + xii.

H.W. Dick, Industri Pelayaran Indonesia: Kompetisi dan Regulasi, Jakarta: LP3ES, 1990, 306 + xxv.     

Socio‐economic factors determining the success achieved among cotton‐adopting households in two magisterial districts of KwaZulu

The aim of the paper is to investigate certain aspects of the post‐adoption behaviour of dryland cotton farmers in the Ubombo and Hlabisa magisterial districts of KwaZulu. Particular attention is paid to the socio‐economic determinants of the success (returns per hectare) of the household cotton enterprise.

Multi‐stage sampling methods were used to draw a random sample of fifty cotton‐farming households from each of the two study districts. The data were collected by interview survey and analysed using principal components and regression techniques.

Results suggest that the success of the household enterprise in both areas is largely determined by the socio‐economic environment under which the producer operates. The most important success‐determining factors are those relating to the human capital endowments and economic status of the household.     

Robustness to the unavailability of data in block designs

We present general results for finding or boundingt _maxB , the maximum number of arbitrary whole blocks of observations which can be removed from a block design, and still leave all of the elementary treatment contrasts estimable. The block sizes may be larger than the number of treatments. The results are applied to BBDs, reinforced BIBDs and BBDs, BTIBDs, and a series of variance balanced incomplete block designs with two block sizes. Also given for most of these designs, are results fort _max, the maximum number of arbitrary, scattered observations that can become unavailable, and still leave all of the elementary treatment contrasts estimable.The work was undertaken while Dr. Whittinghill was visiting Ohio State University, and supported by a grant from the Natural Sciences Division, Colby College, Waterville, Maine.