A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions

The measurement of credit quality is at the heart of the models designed to assess the reserves and capital needed to support the risks of both individual credits and portfolios of credit instruments. A popular specification for credit-rating transitions is the simple, time-homogeneous Markov model. While the Markov specification cannot really describe processes in the long run, it may be useful for adequately describing short-run changes in portfolio risk. In this specification, the entire stochastic process can be characterized in terms of estimated transition probabilities. However, the simple homogeneous Markovian transition framework is restrictive. We propose a test of the null hypotheses of time-homogeneity that can be performed on the sorts of data often reported. We apply the tests to 4 data sets, on commercial paper, sovereign debt, municipal bonds and S&P-rated Corporates. The results indicate that commercial paper looks Markovian on a 30-day time scale for up to 6 months; sovereign debt also looks Markovian (perhaps due to a small sample size); municipals are well-modeled by the Markov specification for up to 5 years, but could probably benefit from frequent updating of the estimated transition matrix or from more sophisticated modeling, and S&P Corporate ratings are approximately Markov over 3 transitions but not 4.     

Increasing Intellectual Bandwidth: Generating Value from Intellectual Capital with Information Technology

An organization's Intellectual Bandwidth (IB) is its capacity to transform External Domain Knowledge (EDK) into Intellectual Capital (IC), and to convert IC into Applied Knowledge (AK), from which a task team can create value. An organization's IB is an upper boundary on its ability to solve complex problems. To create value, members of an organization must search for knowledge, share it, and, bring it to bear on the issue at hand. The Intellectual Bandwidth of an organization must therefore be, to a certain extent, a function of the ability of its members to access data, information, and knowledge that is relevant in the context of the task at hand in order to understand the causes and consequences of their problem. They must reason about possible solutions and their potential consequences. Throughout the task they must communicate with other stakeholders and subject matter experts as they make a joint effort toward their goal. This paper develops a model of IB based on these and other concepts. It posits that IB is the product of a Hierarchy of Understanding and a Hierarchy of Collaboration. The paper suggests that the model may be useful for analyzing and deploying IT in ways that reduce the cognitive load of bringing EDK and IC to bear on the task at hand. Future research must focus on refining and validating constructs and developing measures of IB, and using those measures to find ways to increase the value derived from EDK and IC.     

Ownership Dynamics of REITs

This paper studies the effects that benefits of control and moral hazard have on the evolution of large stakes in REITs. A large risk-averse shareholder trades off the net benefits of REIT business monitoring and control with the cost of bearing risk beyond the level compensated by the REIT return premium. In equilibrium, the large shareholder gradually adjusts his ownership shares level (as long as his marginal benefits from holding shares increase in his REIT stake) towards the long-run competitive equilibrium in which his marginal share valuation coincides with that of the market. Because of the moral hazard, such level of ownership (and monitoring) is, in general, inefficient. The speed of adjustment is positively correlated with the agents risk aversion and company volatility, and negatively correlated with his marginal benefits of control and beneficial monitoring effects.     

Determinants of technology licensing: the case of licensors

This paper empirically analyzes the behavior of technology licensors using a large dataset of US‐traded companies. The stock of technological knowledge of the licensor, this company's prior exposure to licensing, the rate of growth of its primary sector, the strength of IPR protection, and the nature of the technology are found to be important determinants of the propensity to sell technology through nonexclusive licenses. Smaller firms in industries with ‘simpler’ technologies tend to sell technology through exclusive licenses more than others. In contrast, larger firms in industries dealing with more ‘complex’ technologies engage relatively more in cross licensing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

Methodological issues in science and technology forecasting: Uses and limitations in public policy deliberations

Aspects of and approaches to science-technology forecasting as a public policy tool are reviewed. In doing so, a distinction is made between factors that determine the volume or direction of scientific or technological research and factors that determine the ‘ideational content’ of such research. Particular attention is then paid to the strengths and weaknesses of current methodologies and the standards for evaluating them as authoritative forecasts of the future. A concluding section argues for the importance of retrospective studies of science- technology innovation and performance.     

The Size and Frequency of Price Changes: Evidence from Grocery Stores

We analyze a data set (on grocerystore prices for lettuce) with many advantages overthose used previously to explain firm heterogeneity inthe size and frequency of price changes. Despitecommon shocks to their input price, grocers' pricechanges vary widely in size and frequency. We testhypotheses emerging from a theoretical framework. Wefind that product, firm, and market characteristicsassociated with the benefits from and costs ofchanging price explain grocer-to-grocer variation inthe size and frequency of price changes. Moreconcentrated markets, larger firm size, and thinnerproduct markets lead to infrequent and large pricechanges.