Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for the Greek Drachma

This paper presents exchange market pressure and intervention indices than can be applied as tools for policy analysis in the case of Greece. A small open economy model is presented that helps to assess Greek exchange rate policy, within a framework characterized for a strong preference to eliminate excessive exchange rate volatility to meet the Maastricht criteria of low inflation and a fixed domestic currency. [F31]     

A variable threshold band approach to measuring market linkages

Uncertain and changing economic conditions can have substantial effects on price relationships in spatially separated, linked markets. Although numerous studies have analysed price relationships to characterize market linkage structures, most assume that the relationships and associated linkages are time invariant. This study extends the literature by modelling and estimating time-dependent market linkages that are conditional on changes in exogenous factors. The methodology is used to investigate price relationships in North Carolina (NC) corn and soya bean markets. Empirical results indicate that generalized market-linkage models provide a better representation of price relationships over time, improving the understanding of price discovery dynamics and marketing strategies.     

Initial evidence on whether use of professional fundraising services increases fundraising effectiveness

• We provide initial evidence on whether use of professional fundraising services by US nonprofit organizations (NPOs) increases the effectiveness of NPOs' fundraising efforts. To a well-tested model of organization-level donations, we add an interaction term that captures the impact that professional fundraising fees an NPO incurs has on the effectiveness of an NPOs' spending on fundraising in raising donations. We find that professional fundraising fees has a significant positive impact on the effectiveness of fundraising efforts in raising donations for NPOs in the full, education, and health samples, but no impact for NPOs in the arts and human services samples. For NPOs in the full sample and NPOs in the education sample, one quarter of the effect of fundraising on donations stems from the positive impact of professional fundraising services on the effectiveness of fundraising in raising donations. For NPOs in the health sample, one half of the effect of fundraising on donations stems from the positive impact of professional fundraising services on the effectiveness of fundraising in raising donations. These results suggest that professional fundraising services significantly enhance the effectiveness of fundraising for these types of NPOs. While the results of this study seem to confirm the decisions of managers of education and health NPOs to utilize professional fundraising services, the results also suggest that managers of arts and human services NPOs may want to reconsider using professional fundraising services, at least the types of services they currently purchase and the way they currently utilize such services.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parents of preschool fire setters: perceptions of the child-play fire hazard

The present study sought to learn about risk perceptions held by parents of preschool fire-setters. A 41-item survey was distributed to 60 parents whose children, aged 6 years and younger, had previously set fires and who were involved in intervention programmes throughout the US. Most parents did not think their children would play with matches/lighters, or knew how to use these items, although some had witnessed their children playing with matches/lighters previously. Most parents reported having taken precautions to keep matches/lighters out of reach and also educating their children about fire. Regardless, children not only set fires, but in 40% of cases climbed to access the match/lighter. Parents' perceptions of their children's proclivity for fire play were not consistent with their actual fire-play behaviour. Parents underestimated the likelihood that their children would play with matches/lighters. Although most reportedly undertook preventative measures aimed at thwarting fire play, these strategies were ineffective. Traditionally relied upon precautionary techniques, such as storing lighters out of reach and discussing the dangers of fire, were not sufficient to stem interest and resultant fire play.     

Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach

This paper investigates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate for the Chinese RMB during the post-reform period, 1982–2010. We extend the NATREX model in several important perspectives and apply it for the first time to China. A wide range of economic fundamentals that are unique to the Chinese economy is introduced into the model. We construct a unique set of quarterly data and employ unit root and cointegration tests that can account for multiple endogenous structural breaks. In addition, to capture the evolution of China's foreign trade pattern, we employ time-varying (i.e. 3-year average) trade weights to construct the real effective exchange rate. We find two structural breaks in the cointegration relationship (in 1988 and 1992). Effective terms of trade, demographic factors, liquidity constraints and government investment are significant determinants of the equilibrium real effective exchange rate. The RMB was overvalued against a basket of 14 currencies until mid-1980s. During 1986–2010, it was undervalued in most years except after the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We have found persistent undervaluation from 2004 onwards. However, the misalignment rates are much lower than those reported by previous studies and the undervaluation rate actually declined sharply in 2008. The undervaluation rate rose modestly in 2009 and sharply in 2010, though it is still lower than what has been suggested by other studies.     

'The Navigator Network': a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's 'Navigator Network' is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing 'early alert' advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is 'people-centric' rather than 'information-centric', using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected African Countries

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of stock market development on economic growth in 14 African countries in a dynamic panel data modelling setting. Results largely show a positive relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Further analyses, based on the level of economic development and stock market capitalization, are also conducted. The results reveal that the positive influence of stock market development on economic growth is significant for countries classified as upper middle income economies. On the basis of market capitalization groupings, stock market developments play a significant role in growth only for moderately capitalized markets. The general trend in results shows that low income African countries and less developed stock markets need to grow more and develop their markets to elicit economic gains from stock markets.     

Conducting Online Surveys

The World Wide Web (WWW) is increasingly being used as a tool and platform for survey research. Two types of electronic or online surveys available for data collection are the email and Web based survey, and they constitute the focus of this paper. We address a multitude of issues researchers should consider before and during the use of this method of data collection: advantages and liabilities with this form of survey research, sampling problems, questionnaire design considerations, suggestions in approaching potential respondents, response rates and aspects of data processing. Where relevant, the methodological issues involved are illustrated with examples from our own research practice. This methods review shows that most challenges are resolved when taking into account the principles that guide the conduct of conventional surveys.     

Dynamic Linkages between FDI Inflows and Domestic Investment: A Panel Cointegration Approach

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between FDI inflows and domestic investment for a panel of selected countries by means of panel cointegration and causality techniques. Specifically, the paper provides empirical evidence regarding the existence of possible crowding in or crowding out effects between FDI inflows and domestic investment, accounting for the location and the level of development of the host countries.The paper was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference in London, March 9–13, 2005. The authors wish to thank the participants of the Macroeconomic Topics session for their valuable comments on an earlier draft. We would also like to express our gratitude to G. Chortareas and G. Konteos for helpful comments and suggestions. Nevertheless, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Structural Breaks and the Equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US Dollar Real Exchange Rate: A FEER Approach

This paper examines the equilibrium Chinese yuan/US dollar (CNY/USD) real exchange rate within the framework of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model. Endogenous structural breaks are allowed for in all cointegration relationships. Macroeconomic fundamentals that affect medium‐term savings and investment and hence, the sustainable current account, are also highlighted. A unique set of quarterly data for the post‐reform period (1982–2009) is constructed. This paper finds structural breaks in all trade and the sustainable current account equations. The misalignment rates show that the real exchange rate was overvalued in most years until 2003, followed by undervaluation during 2004–09. However, the average misalignment rates and revaluation required to correct this undervaluation are not as large as suggested by previous studies, with the undervaluation rate declining sharply in 2009. Further, misalignment rates are computed using a sustainable current account of 3%. The findings suggest such exogenous input leads to results biased towards larger undervaluation.