The assessment of the impact of oil palm and rubber plantations on the biotic and abiotic properties of tropical peat swamp soil in Indonesia

Current intensification of agricultural activities in Indonesia has led to increased use of tropical peat swamp forests for agriculture. Ideally, peat swamp ecosystems should not be disturbed as they provide essential services such as soil erosion control, ecosystem stabilization and moderation of climate and energy fluxes as well as reducing carbon emission and conserving biodiversity. In this study, agricultural land from Giam Siak Kecil–Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve in Indonesia was evaluated to assess the impact of oil palm (burning and without burning) and rubber (5–10 and >40 years old) plantations on soil properties through comparisons with soils from a natural forest (NF). Substantial changes in the physico-chemical properties of soils from both plantations were observed including significant reductions in soil organic matter (4–18%) and water holding capacity (22–53%), but an increase in bulk density (ρb) (0.08–0.17?g?cm^?3). A significant increase in bacterial biomass was also observed following conversion of the NF to plantation (p<0.05). However, the oil palm plantation (OPP) (without burning) showed reduced microbial activities and the lowest Shannon diversity values (2.90) compared to other samples. Community-level physiological profiling showed impaired community function only in soils from the OPP but higher CO₂ exchange rates in most plantation soils. Soils from the rubber plantation (RP) were less impaired in terms of their natural function and therefore RPs appeared to be more suitable for sustainable agricultural use than OPP.     

Smallholder Supply Response to Marketing Board Activities in a Dual Channel Marketing System: The Case of Zambia

In recent years, parastatal grain marketing boards have re‐emerged as important elements of grain markets in eastern and southern Africa, yet little is known about how farmers are responding to their scaled up activities. This article develops a conceptual model of farmers’ production decisions in the context of dual output marketing channels (government and private sector) when output prices at harvest time and the availability of one of the marketing channels are unknown at planting time. It then applies the model to the case of Zambia and uses nationally representative household‐level panel survey data to estimate the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), the government parastatal maize marketing board, on smallholder crop production and fallow land. The FRA buys maize from smallholders at a pan‐territorial price that typically exceeds market prices in major maize producing areas. Results suggest that increases in the farmgate FRA maize price raise farmer maize price expectations, which induces a supply response. Smallholders respond to an increase in the FRA price by extensifying their maize production. On average, a 1% increase in the FRA price is associated with 0.06% increases in smallholders’ maize area planted and quantity harvested. There is also some evidence that farmers reduce the area of land under fallow in response to FRA incentives but there is no evidence of reductions in the area planted to other crops.     

Within trial cost-utility analysis of disease management program for patients hospitalized with atrial fibrillation: results from the SAFETY trial

Abstract

Background: The potential impact of disease management to optimize quality of care, health outcomes, and total healthcare costs across a range of cardiac disease states is unknown.

Methods: A trial-based cost-utility analysis was conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial of 335 patients with chronic, non-valvular AF (without heart failure; the SAFETY Trial) discharged to home from three tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. A home-based disease management intervention (the SAFETY intervention) that involved community-based AF care including home visits was compared to routine primary healthcare and hospital outpatient follow-up (standard management). Bootstrapped incremental cost-utility ratios were computed based on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and total healthcare costs. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were constructed to explore the probability of the SAFETY intervention being cost-effective. Sub-group analyses were performed based on age and sex to determine differential cost-effectiveness.

Results: During median follow-up of 1.75?years, the SAFETY intervention was associated with a non-statistically significant increase in QALYs (0.02 per person) and lower total healthcare costs (–$4,375 per person). Although each of these findings were not statistically significant, the SAFETY intervention was found to be dominant (more effective and cost saving) in 58.8% of the bootstrapped iterations and cost-effective (more effective and gains in QALYs achieved at or below $50,000 per QALY gained) in 61.5% of the iterations. Males and those aged less than 78?years achieved greater gains in QALYs and savings in healthcare costs. The estimated value of perfect information in Australia (the monetized value of removing uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results) was A$51 million, thus demonstrating the high potential gain from further research.

Conclusions: Compared with standard management, the SAFETY intervention is potentially a dominant strategy for those with chronic, non-valvular AF. However, there would be substantial value in reducing the uncertainty in these estimates from further research.

Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry identifier: ACTRN12610000221055.     

Tilting the evidence: the role of firm-level earnings attributes in the relation between aggregated earnings and gross domestic product

Review of Accounting Studies - We examine whether the contribution of firm-level accounting earnings to the informativeness of the aggregate is tilted towards earnings with specific financial...     

Short-run money demand

The conventional wisdom holds that the short-run demand for money is unstable. This paper challenges the conventional view by finding a stable demand for M1 in U.S. data from 1959 through 1993. The approach follows previous work in interpreting long-run money demand as a cointegrating relation, and it uses Goldfeld's partial-adjustment model to interpret short-run dynamics. The key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function. Most previous work uses a short-term market rate, but this paper uses the average return on “near monies”—the savings accounts and money market mutual funds that are close substitutes for M1. This choice helps rationalize the behavior of money demand; in particular, the increase in the volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by increased volatility in the returns on near monies.     

Asset allocation: How much does model choice matter?

This paper analyzes the optimal portfolio decision of a CRRA investor in models with stochastic volatility and stochastic jumps. The investor follows a buy-and-hold strategy in the stock, the money market account, and one additional derivative. We show that both the type of the model and the structure of the risk premia have a significant impact on the optimal portfolio, on the utility gain from having access to derivatives, and on whether the investor prefers to trade OTM or ATM options. We also show that model mis-specification results in significant utility losses. Omitting jumps in volatility can be devastating, in particular if the investor chooses the seemingly optimal OTM put options. A misestimation of the structure of the risk premia has a less devastating effect, but can still lead to a loss of around 4% in the annual certainty equivalent return.     

An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications

Margin regulation raises two policy concerns. First, an alignment of margins to volatility can amplify procyclicality, leading to a build-up of excess leverage in good times and a forced deleverage in bad times. Second, competition among central counterparties (CCPs) can result in lower margin levels in order to attract more trading volume, which is referred to as a “race to the bottom.” Motivated by these issues, we empirically analyze the determinants of margin changes by using a data set of various futures margins from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group. We first find that CME Group raises margins quickly following volatility spikes but does not immediately lower margins following volatility declines, implying that margin-induced procyclicality is more of a concern in recessions than in expansions. In addition, we find some evidence that the margin difference between CME Group and its competitor, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), is an important driver of margin changes after changes in other margin determinants are controlled for, implying that competition may be factored into margin setting.     

The extent of informational efficiency in the credit default swap market: evidence from post-earnings announcement returns

Under semi-strong market efficiency future returns are unpredictable from previously released information. We test the degree of semi-strong form market efficiency in the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining the relationship between subsequent CDS returns and previously announced quarterly earnings surprises and quarterly accruals, both of which have been the source of stock market anomalies. We conduct our analysis over three time periods: (1) before the credit crisis that spanned from July 2007 to June 2009, (2) during the credit crisis, and (3) after the credit crisis. Both before and after the credit crisis, the CDS market was efficient, exhibiting no systematic relation between subsequent CDS returns and previously announced accounting information. During the credit crisis, however, we find that both quarterly earnings surprises and quarterly accruals are associated with systematic patterns in subsequent CDS returns that are consistent with underreaction to both measures. In the latter stages of the crisis, the pattern reverses, consistent with the CDS market overreacting to both measures although the overreaction is short-lived. Collectively, our results indicate that the CDS market is efficient during periods of relative economic stability but call into question its efficiency during less stable economic periods.     

Incentives at the counter: An empirical analysis of surcharging card payments and payment behaviour in the Netherlands

In card payment systems, no-surcharge rules prohibit merchants from charging consumers extra for card payments. However, such rules are prohibited in the Netherlands. Dutch retailers are allowed to surcharge consumers for debit card use. This setting permits an empirical analysis of the impact of surcharging card payments on merchant acceptance and consumer payment choice. Based on consumer and retailer survey data, our analysis shows that surcharging steers consumers away from using debit cards towards cash. Half of the observed difference in debit card payment shares across retailers can be explained by this surcharge effect. Removing debit card surcharges may induce cost savings of more than EUR 50 million in the long run.