Wealth effects of food and drug administration (FDA) decisions

Government regulations are an increasingly important component of the environment in which firms operate. Regulations may subject firms to large costs and possibly regulatory-induced risks, both of which may have effects on stockholders' wealth. In this paper we investigate the valuation effects of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) product approvals, rejections and disciplinary decisions on the firms that operate in the food and drug industries. We find that FDA decisions have very large wealth effects. The large price changes associated with approval and rejection decisions suggest that a significant amount of uncertainty about FDA decisions is present almost up to the announcement day. These results are somewhat surprising given the lengthy period of time involved in developing and reviewing drugs and the continuous flow of information received by the market about their potential. We also find some evidence of information leaks preceding FDA announcements. With respect to disciplinary decisions, the evidence from the data suggests that stockholders experience large losses associated with FDA actions. Since these losses represent lost stream of future illegal income, it appears that ignoring FDA rules may be quite profitable for firms that are not caught.     

Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract. In this paper, the effects of social assistance reform proposals are discussed for the case of Germany using a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates a discrete choice model of labour supply. This allows us to identify general equilibrium effects of the reforms on wages and unemployment. The simulation results show that general equilibrium wage reactions mitigate labour supply effects and that unemployment in fact decreases. Wage reactions are thus sufficiently strong to prevent additional labour supply from translating into higher unemployment. The simulations indicate that major cuts in welfare payments are necessary to produce substantial employment effects.     

Organizational structure characteristics’ influences on international purchasing performance in different purchasing locations

This study contributes to the understanding of how firms should structure their purchasing organization to improve their performance. While the research into structural characteristics’ impacts on purchasing performance is evolving, it is still incomplete, especially concerning the contingencies on different purchasing environments. Drawing on ideas from the organizational information processing and contingency approaches as well as the international business literature, the present study proposes a model in which three key organizational structure characteristics – centralization, standardization, and specialization – are associated with purchasing performance. This study posits that the relationships are contingent on a purchasing location’s formal and informal institutional context. Based on a sample of 195 German manufacturers, the model is empirically tested using structural equation modeling. The findings support the relevance of organizational structure characteristics for international purchasing and firm performance and they also support the notion that the effects are contingent on the purchasing location’s institutional context.     

When do jumps matter for portfolio optimization?

We consider the continuous-time portfolio optimization problem of an investor with constant relative risk aversion who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth. The risky asset follows a jump-diffusion model with a diffusion state variable. We propose an approximation method that replaces the jumps by a diffusion and solve the resulting problem analytically. Furthermore, we provide explicit bounds on the true optimal strategy and the relative wealth equivalent loss that do not rely on quantities known only in the true model. We apply our method to a calibrated affine model. Our findings are threefold: Jumps matter more, i.e. our approximation is less accurate, if (i) the expected jump size or (ii) the jump intensity is large. Fixing the average impact of jumps, we find that (iii) rare, but severe jumps matter more than frequent, but small jumps.     

Estimating the Wage Premium of Collective Wage Contracts: Evidence from Longitudinal Linked Employer–Employee Data

Using a large‐scale linked employer–employee dataset from western Germany, this paper presents new evidence on the wage premium of collective bargaining contracts. In contrast to previous studies, we seek to assess the extent to which differences in wages between workers in covered and uncovered firms arise from the nonrandom selection of workers and firms into collective bargaining coverage. By measuring the relative wage changes of workers employed in firms that change contract status, we obtain estimates that depart considerably from previous results relying on cross‐sectional data. Results from analyzing separate transitions show that leaving industry‐level contracts is associated with subsequent wage losses. However, the results from a trend‐adjusted difference‐in‐difference approach indicate that particularly the transitions to no coverage appear to be associated with negative shocks. Overall, our findings provide no evidence of a “true” wage effect of leaving wage bargaining, once we account for differences in pretransition wage growth.     

Robustness of the Black and Scholes Formula

Consider an option on a stock whose volatility is unknown and stochastic. An agent assumes this volatility to be a specific function of time and the stock price, knowing that this assumption may result in a misspecification of the volatility. However, if the misspecified volatility dominates the true volatility, then the misspecified price of the option dominates its true price. Moreover, the option hedging strategy computed under the assumption of the misspecified volatility provides an almost sure one-sided hedge for the option under the true volatility. Analogous results hold if the true volatility dominates the misspecified volatility. These comparisons can fail, however, if the misspecified volatility is not assumed to be a function of time and the stock price. The positive results, which apply to both European and American options, are used to obtain a bound and hedge for Asian options.     

The Effects of Kenya's ‘Smarter’ Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi‐experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Kenya joined the ranks of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were ‘smarter’ than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less ‘smart’. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders’ cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data‐ and propensity score‐based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource‐poor farmers and implementation through vouchers redeemable at private agro‐dealer shops likely contributed to its more favorable impacts than those of ISPs in Malawi and Zambia.     

Nach welchen Regeln werden Arbeitsleistungen vergütet?

Die aktuelle Diskussion über zu hohe Managergeh?lter am oberen und zu niedrige L?hne am unteren Ende der Gehaltsskala führt zu den Grundregeln der Lohnbildung. In der ?konomischen Theorie stehen dabei vor allem individuelle Produktivit?tsunterschiede als Ursache von Lohnunterschieden im Vordergrund. Wenig — wie einige ?konomen finden zu wenig — wird dabei auf die Machtstrukturen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt geachtet.     

Fluency in Commercial Breaks: The Impact of Repetition and Conceptual Priming on Brand Memory,Evaluation, and Behavioral Intentions

Although sold by television channels for high fees, the effectiveness of tandem-spots and brand exclusivity has not been investigated so far. A 2?×?2 between-subjects experiment (N?=?325) was conducted to investigate the effects of repetition (tandem-spot) and conceptual priming (competing spot) on brand memory, evaluation, and behavioral intentions toward the brand, while applying the processing fluency construct as theoretical foundation. Tandem-spots improved brand recall, but no significant effects were found concerning brand evaluation or behavioral intentions. Competing spots meanwhile acted as conceptual primes, enhancing brand memory, evaluation, and behavioral intentions. These findings partially contradict offerings and recommendations made by television channels.     

A validated expert system for decision making in corporate recovery

This paper describes INSOLVE—an expert system for corporate recovery decisions. INSOLVE was built to understand the decision-making processes of corporate recovery experts who deal with companies in financial difficulties. INSOLVE has been developed using a multi-phase process similar to that widely adopted in software engineering. The expert system is described in terms of the assessment task and interpretation models of CommonKADS. The detailed results of the validation of INSOLVE with 17 experts show that it is an accurate model of human expertise in this domain. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.