Critical Situations for Decision Making: A Support Based on a Modelling Tool

This paper proposes to give a toll to help decision makers in critical situations. The principle of our research is based on a modelling approach for Cooperative Knowledge Based Systems. This approach is based on a Task/Method paradigm that we describe. We then propose to take into account collateral effects of tasks in order to support decision makers in a critical context. The proposed tool can then generate a degraded solution for which, collateral effects of previous tasks have been taken as new goals to reach. This study is possible thanks to the definition of several kinds of models: a Good Functioning Model and a Degraded Tasks Library.     

Accommodating the elderly poor: almshouses and the mixed economy of welfare in England in the second millennium

This article provides an outline of the development of the English almshouse across the second millennium, and its place within the broader spectrum of social welfare. It discusses the evolution of the almshouse into its modern form, as privately endowed housing dedicated to the elderly poor. It presents the results of new research that provides a firmer quantitative foundation for consideration of the role of the almshouse in welfare history and revisits the issue of the mixed economy of welfare to demonstrate the complex relationship between public and private provision.     

Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models

Abstract

This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multiperiod-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The models considered are the following: Lee-Carter’s 1992 one-factor model; a version of Renshaw-Haberman’s 2006 extension of the Lee-Carter model to allow for a cohort effect; the age-period-cohort model, which is a simplified version of Renshaw-Haberman; Cairns, Blake, and Dowd’s 2006 two-factor model; and two generalized versions of the last named with an added cohort effect. For the data set used herein, the results from applying this methodology suggest that the models perform adequately by most backtests and that prediction intervals that incorporate parameter uncertainty are wider than those that do not. We also find little difference between the performances of five of the models, but the remaining model shows considerable forecast instability.     

Union Density in Israel 1995–2010: The Hybridization of Industrial Relations

In the past the Israeli industrial relations system was corporatist, characterized by high levels of membership in trade unions and employers' associations, as well as broad coverage of collective agreements. The corporatist system gradually eroded from the mid‐1980s, but its major transformation came with the removal of the Ghent‐like system in 1995. The article observes data collected since the transformation, distinguishing between membership and coverage trends. These distinctions aid in revealing that a hybrid of two distinct industrial relations subsystems has developed. The notion of hybridization suggests that unlike past accounts, which described the substitution of the corporatist industrial relations system by a liberal‐pluralist system, what actually emerges is their coexistence. Despite the path‐determined nature of the Israeli hybrid, the interaction between coverage and membership is instructive for understanding strategic choices made in other European countries in which a similar gap emerged. The article notes the potential for synergy between the two subsystems and notes the actual development of rivalry and friction.     

Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows*

We examine episodes of current account adjustment in industrial countries over the past 30 years. We find that they were typically associated with a sizable growth slowdown and a large exchange rate depreciation. There was no discernible change in the nature of capital flows just prior to an adjustment. Hence, adjustments may be responding to the resolution of domestic imbalances rather than being an exogenous event. We show that global developments triggered the adjustment, possibly by triggering the unwinding of the domestic imbalances. Most of the ex post adjustment of the financial account was in private sector flows, primarily by foreign investors.     

Inward Investment and Technical Progress in the United Kingdom Manufacturing Sector

This paper investigates the impact of direct investment by foreign‐owned companies on technical progress and hence labour productivity in the UK manufacturing sector. Using an industry‐level panel data set we find that foreign‐owned firms have a significant positive effect on the level of technical efficiency in domestic firms. There is evidence of significant intra‐industry and inter‐industry spillovers from inward investment. These findings remain robust even when other factors such as imports and domestic R&D expenditures are allowed for. Inward investment appears to be a much more important source of technical progress than foreign trade.     

Sexuality and holiday choices: conversations with gay and lesbian tourists

This paper is an exploratory investigation of the travel motivations of gay and lesbian tourists. Based on in-depth interviews and focus groups, it investigates the interrelationships between sexuality, tourism behaviour and tourism spaces. Given that public space is controlled and heterosexualized, the paper suggests that whilst gay and lesbian people are motivated to travel for a range of reasons, such is the power of the dominant heterosexual milieu that their sexuality has a critical impact on their tourism choices. The need for safety, to feel comfortable with like-minded people, and to escape from heterosexism – often to specifically gay spaces – emerge as key influences on their choice of holiday.