Inference on inequality from household survey data

I develop a theory of asymptotic inference for the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient for testing economic inequality when the data come from stratified and clustered household surveys with large number of clusters per stratum. Using the asymptotic framework of Bhattacharya [Asymptotic Inference from multi-stage surveys. Journal of Econometrics 126(1), 145–171], I derive a weak convergence result for the continuously-indexed Lorenz process even when the underlying density is not uniformly bounded away from zero. I provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic covariance functions that are corrected for both stratification and clustering and develop consistent tests for Lorenz dominance. Inference on the Gini coefficient follows as a corollary. The methods are applied to per capita household expenditure data from the complexly designed Indian national sample survey to test for changes in inequality before and after the reforms of the early 1990s. Ignoring the survey design is seen to produce qualitatively different results, especially in the urban sector where the population sorts more completely into rich and poor neighborhoods.     

本土保卫战的六大秘笈

根据《经济学人智库》预测，到2010年，新兴市场将占到全球GDP的45％，以及GDP增长的60％。中国、印度、东盟等市场都变得愈发重要，但这并不意味着这些市场将自然地归属本土企业，他们必须面对跨国公司来势汹汹的挑战。跨国公司无论在实力还是经验上，通常都更胜本土企业一筹，但也并不总是大获成功。Yahoo!和eBay在中国市场上就因百度与淘宝的抵抗而止步。许多西方汽车制造商在印度试图建立业务，也步履艰难。NEC和松下退出中国的手机市场。日本零售商八佰伴放弃了其在中国的运营。     

Mortgage‐Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment

The Australian home loan market has seen a significant and persistent boom over more than two decades. The extant literature exploring the underlying factors explaining this boom has predominantly looked at the demand side rather than the supply side. In this paper, we look at a major supply‐side issue, the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities and its likely impact on the home loan market. In doing so, we have developed a mathematical model that theorises this likely relationship. Our mathematical model predicts possible existence of an unstable equilibrium in the home loan market in the presence of mortgage‐backed securities. We have subsequently backed up our theoretical exercise with sound empirical evidence acquired and analysed as a natural experiment in the Australian scenario using quarterly market data on home loans and mortgage‐backed securities data for a 36‐year period from 1976 to 2012. Using unknown structural break tests, we have identified significant breaks around late 1992 to mid‐1995, clearly indicating that there were significant changes in the housing market due to the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities in early 1993. We have also performed a stability test confirming that under certain conditions this market can become unstable.     

Determinants of Innovation

The study examines how firm size, market structure, profitability and growth influence innovative activity in small to medium sized Australian manufacturing businesses, using the recently released Confidentialised Unit Record File drawn from the Business Longitudinal Survey of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Regression analysis is conducted to determine the factors that effect subsequent innovative activity for the full sample of businesses, as well as for sub-samples of firms from high and low-technological opportunity industries. Most variables, including size, R&D intensity, market structure and trade shares are found to be conducive to further innovative activity for the full sample and for high-tech firms. For low-tech industries, fewer variables are significant.     

THE HIDDEN COST OF BARGAINING: EVIDENCE FROM A CHEATING-PRONE MARKETPLACE

It is widely believed that successful bargaining helps consumers increase their surplus. We present evidence from a field experiment showing that bargaining over price reduces buyer surplus in a marketplace where sellers cheat on the weight whose value may more than offset the price discount. Our results show that bargaining entails hidden costs since sellers cheat significantly more when buyers bargain than not and they cheat significantly more when bargaining succeeds than fails. Overall bargaining reduces buyer surplus than not bargaining. Our result is relevant for credence goods markets where bargaining over prices may induce sellers to “undertreat” more.     

The Feasibility of Establishing an International Financial Center in Shanghai

This article examines the feasibility of establishing an international financial center in Shanghai by 2020. It analyzes the national regulations and incentives that need to be implemented and evaluates whether the financial market liberalization measures undertaken so far by China meet the requirements for the success of this strategy. It concludes that elevating Shanghai to a primary international financial center providing multiple financial services to domestic and foreign clients is decades away under the sequential approach to liberalization. However, in the short run, Shanghai can emerge as a regional financial center catering essentially to the funding needs of Chinese businesses.     

Random iterates of monotone maps

In this paper we prove the existence, uniqueness and stability of the invariant distribution of a random dynamical system in which the admissible family of laws of motion consists of monotone maps from a closed subset of a finite dimensional Euclidean space into itself.     

Rural-urban migration in economic development

Abstract. This paper provides a review of the theoretical literature on rural–urban migration in contemporary LDCs. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the Lewis model before going on to discuss the Todaro and the Harris–Todaro models and the large literature which these models have spawned. The question of job search in the context of migration and the role of family members in migration decisions are considered next. The paper then takes a closer look at the Informal sector and also sets out alternative migration functions to the ones usually employed in the literature. The paper concludes with a brief note on some of the important implications arising from our study.     

INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE AND COMPETITION: THE CASE OF JAPANESE MANUFACTURING

Abstract.  The paper analyses the competitive process and performance behaviour of Japanese manufacturing between 1985 and 1997. Technological changes, international competition and reducing barriers in domestic and international markets are playing a significant role to speed up the performance behaviour in Japanese manufacturing. Scale economies, product differentiation and openness of the economy are used in explaining profit behaviour of manufacturing firms. Findings are compared with existing studies from Japan as well as from other developed countries such as Australia and the USA.