Multiple Criteria Decision Making: A Case Study of the Columbia River Salmon Recovery Plan

A common problem faced by decision makers is choosing the best alternative from among many. Traditionally, such decisions in the public arena were made using benefit-cost analysis, which involves the conversion of all costs and benefits associated with a project into monetary terms. But public projects often have a variety of economic, ecological, social and political objectives, many of which cannot or perhaps should not be converted to monetary terms. In such projects decisions must be made based on multiple, even conflicting objectives. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are widely used for such decisions. However, a common disadvantage among many such methods available in the literature is that they require input from a real decision maker. This paper presents the development and application of an expert system based on fuzzy set theory and IF-THEN rules. The system mimics a real decision maker. Along with two conventional MCDM methods the developed expert system was applied on a data set from the Columbia River Basin salmon recovery plan to assess its potential usefulness as a decision-making tool for natural resource projects. The results suggest that the fuzzy expert system is easy to develop and makes better decisions than the other two conventional MCDM methods used.     

The Profitability of Momentum Investing

We test for the presence of momentum profits in the UK over the period 1977 to 1998. The analysis shows that significant momentum profits are present in both a comprehensive sample of UK stocks and an accounting sub-sample. An analysis of sub-period results, seasonal effects, and the persistence of momentum profits confirms the robustness of the results. Controlling for factors known to be associated with differences in average returns, such as size, stock price, book-to-market ratio, and cash earnings-to-price ratio, cannot explain momentum profits. We also confirm that serial correlation in common factors and delayed price reaction to common factor realisations cannot explain momentum profits. We conclude that the momentum effect derives from market underreaction to either industry- or firm-specific information and it is a significant, independent phenomenon in UK stock returns.     

European Community or Imperial Superstate

Could the European Community follow the pattern of the Austro-Hungarian Empire? The historian Professor Norman Stone, of Oxford University, argues that previous attempts at multi-national institutions have usually ended in discord.     

Eastern European Economic Integration and Foreign Direct Investment

Economic transition in Eastern Europe should generate market growth. In addition, current discussions on economic integration and the development of a free-trade area in Eastern Europe will improve market accessibility. These two forces will significantly affect the strategies by which external firms will choose to supply markets in Eastern Europe. This paper examines the ways in which supply strategy is likely to change. We show that both market growth and improved market accessibility will lead the external firms to switch from exporting to foreign direct investment. However, market growth is likely to lead to dispersed investment in the growing economies, whereas increased market accessibility, by establishing an integrated regional bloc in Eastern Europe, is more likely to lead to concentrated investment plus infra-regional exports to the remainder of the regional bloc. The switch from exporting to local production through foreign direct investment will favor consumers through lowered prices but will harm national producers by depressing profit margins.     

Five Examination Answers for Schools: Microeconomics

This article follows a similar format to my contribution on five sample answers on macroeconomics, published in the 3rd quarter I992 issue of this journal. The aim is again to present essays written under pressure, as if an Australian teenager with a good command of the subject had written them. The positive response to the first set of essays suggests there may be value in this approach. As before, I have supplemented my draft with footnote after-thoughts to explain my strategy and some of the temptations I have sought to avoid. Very often it is important to stop a particular line of argument, or the detail or definition of something, to prevent the essay getting out of balance or straying into what an examiner may brand as 'trivia'. at least in the sense of the question asked. This time I have also added some extended comments on the overall approach to each question. I have avoided diagrams and data that I would normally use in an academic writing as such. This is mainly because a student would not have the data in the exam room and because a good answer can explain a diagram in the mind without actually drawing it. Sometimes the question is already structured for you: write notes on each of the following six things, for instance. This can be deceptive, for there will sometimes be a requirement to relate the concepts to each other, or to some defined context. (Eg 'In relation to the Australian economy…') I have selected five essays that cover different parts of microeconomics and tried to answer in different styles. Some questions call for a good understanding of the principles involved, and if you knew nothing of Australia's situation it would hardly matter. Others call for that knowledge of our industries, their operations and policy aspects bearing on them. As before I consulted no references or data, and some of my recollection may be imperject. I recall someone saying that if you read anything from anyone who has been through Economics at Cambridge, all the best bits are to be found in the footnotes. That may well be true here.     

NONPARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURES FOR PREDICTIVE INFERENCE BASED ON RECURSIVE ESTIMATION SCHEMES*

We introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out‐of‐sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting among multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we compare the finite sample properties of our block bootstrap procedures with the parametric bootstrap due to Kilian (Journal of Applied Econometrics 14 (1999), 491–510), within the context of encompassing and predictive accuracy tests. In the empirical illustration, it is found that unemployment has nonlinear marginal predictive content for inflation.     

The Impact of Small Brownfields and Greenspaces on Residential Property Values

Using a hedonic pricing model, this paper investigates the responsiveness of residential property values in a well-defined inner-city neighborhood of Kenosha, Wisconsin, to the presence of two small former industrial sites contaminated by various environmental pollutants, or brownfields, and a local neighborhood park, or greenspace. Using readily available data on sales and assessments for residential property in close proximity to the brownfields and the greenspace, we estimate well-behaved and statistically significant property value gradients with respect to the park, the environmental amenity, and the brownfields, the environmental disamenities. These functions are then used to estimate the possible impact that brownfield remediation may have on total property value. We estimate that remediation and redevelopment of the brownfields into greenspaces would increase property values for the 890 neighborhood residences between $2.40 and $7.01 million. These results suggest that small brownfields have a measurable impact on property values and that readily accessible data can be used to help local policymakers make decisions on remediation issues.     

Vent for Surplus: A Case of Mistaken Identity

Adam Smith's theory of the gains from trade has caused a great deal of controversy among economic theorists. Throughout much of his work Smith argues that markets efficiently allocate resources. Smith's treatment of the gains from trade, however, is considered inconsistent with his system of natural liberty. This paper offers a new interpretation of the vent-for-surplus model. It is argued that Smith's theory of trade should be considered as an extension of his domestic theory of markets and his theory of productive and unproductive labor. Once interpreted in this light, no inconsistency is found between Smith's theory of trade and his system of natural liberty.     

Hospital RNs' and CNOs' perceptions of the impact of the nursing shortage on the quality of care

The results of analyses of the 2002 and 2004 National Sample Surveys of RNs and the 2004 National Sample of CNOs document the widespread perception that the shortage of nurses is a major problem for the overall quality of patient care in hospitals. In the eyes of the majority of hospital RNs and CNOs surveyed, care processes involving communication, timely response to pages and telephone calls, delays in patient discharges, and the time patients had to wait for tests and procedures were all affected negatively by the nursing shortage. These results are not encouraging.     

Is the shortage of hospital registered nurses getting better or worse? Findings from two recent national surveys of RNs

The results of two recent national surveys of RNs that were conducted at a time when the nursing shortage in the U.S. was in full force (2002) and 2 years later (2004) were compared. The findings provide a mixed assessment: on the one hand, there is evidence that the shortage has eased since 2002 and that there have been notable improvements in the lives of nurses; on the other hand, the shortage has had a negative impact on hospitals and nurses, and longstanding problems associated with the workplace environment remain.