Direct transfers between the former Soviet Union central budget and the republics: Past evidence and current implications

This paper examines the magnitude of direct transfers between the former Soviet Union central buget and individual republics. It shows that Kazakhstan and Central Asian republics were primary recipients of large net transfers of funds from the Soviet central budget amounting in some cases to about ten percent of their GNP. On the contrary, Russia was the single largest net donor of funds to the Soviet central budget through more transfers paid to the union budget than received from it, both in rouble terms and as a share of the GNP.With the dissolution of the central budget in November 1991, these transfers were discontinued. This has caused a dent in fiscal budgets and a large negative income shock in recipient republics. To some extent, external saving is suggested as the way to ease up the burden of the loss of income induced by the collapse of the fiscal system and the system of direct transfers within the former Soviet Union.     

Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH (TARCH) model.     

Preface—Monetary and Exchange Rate Strategies for the European Union's Eastern Enlargement

Open Economies Review -     

Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy

We propose an extension to the inflation targeting regime currently pursued by Poland. It incorporates the exchange rate stability constraints as imposed by the obligatory participation in the ERM2 that Poland needs to satisfy prior to adopting the euro. The modified policy is based on the forward-looking inflation targeting supplemented with the exchange rate stability objective. Its effective implementation depends on the determined long-term equilibrium exchange rate and the observed degree of exchange rate volatility. Both are empirically estimated by employing the Johansen cointegration tests and the threshold generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity model with the in-mean extension and generalized error distribution (TGARCH-M-GED).     

Returns,Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature,Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia

We investigate returns, volatilities, and correlations across mature, dominant regional, and frontier equity markets. Standard & Poor's 500 is chosen as a mature equity market; India is chosen as a dominant regional market; and Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are chosen as frontier markets. Our empirical tests show that the frontier markets remain fundamentally decoupled from the mature markets during normal market periods. During turbulent times, the contagion effects from the mature to the frontier markets become more pronounced. The results suggest that the dominant regional market plays a key role in disseminating shocks across the frontier markets during normal periods; during the turbulent recent financial crisis period, a similar contagion is not observed.