Seasonal fluctuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate

Most of the evidence on dynamic equilibrium exchange rate models is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data. Equilibrium models have not worked well in explaining the actual exchange rate. However, the use of seasonally adjusted data might be responsible for the spurious rejection of the model. This article presents a new equilibrium model for the exchange rates that incorporates seasonal preferences. The fit of the model to the data is evaluated for five industrialized countries using seasonally unadjusted data. Our findings indicate that a model with seasonal preferences can generate monthly time series of the exchange rate without seasonality even when the variables that theoretically determine the exchange rate show clear seasonal behaviours. Further, the model can generate theoretical exchange rates with the same order of integration than actual exchange rates, and in some cases, with the same stochastic trend.     

Morally ruled behaviour: The neglected contribution of Scholasticism *

Abstract

In the analysis of ‘justice’ in market exchanges, the scholastic doctors made some contributions to the theories of prices and money. But probably the most important (and neglected) contribution lies in the domain of anthropology, i.e. in the explanation of human nature and human behaviour. In this paper the authors are going to work out two scholastic ideas that provide an alternative to the individualist and utilitarian approach of neoclassical economics. (1) Persons are morally ruled beings; a sense of ‘duty’ is a key element in their behaviour; (2) Persons are social beings competing and cooperating to achieve certain goals. Dominant positions and privileged information grant them special powers that should not be abused.     

Foreign Aid in the Aftermath of Large Natural Disasters

This paper examines Official Development Assistance (ODA) in the aftermath of large natural disasters between 1970 and 2008. Using an event‐study approach, the paper finds that while the median increase in ODA is 18% compared with pre‐disaster flows, the typical surge is small in relation to the size of the affected economies. Moreover, aid surges typically cover only 3% of the total estimated economic damages caused by the disasters. The main determinants of post‐disaster aid surges are found to be the intensity of the event itself and the recipient country's characteristics such as the level of development, country size and the stock of foreign reserves. The paper does not find evidence that political considerations or strategic behavior on the part of donors determine the size of post‐disaster aid surges.     

The associations between early life circumstances and later life health and employment in Europe

We use data from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe to estimate for thirteen European countries the associations of early life circumstances—measured by childhood health and socioeconomic status (SES)—with educational attainment, and later life health and employment (at ages 50–64). In all countries and for men and women, favorable early life circumstances, and in particular a higher childhood SES, are associated with a higher level of education. In most countries and in particular for women, favorable early life circumstances are associated with better later life health, also when education is controlled for. The significant associations of favorable early life circumstances with a higher incidence of later life employment are mostly transmitted through education and later life health.     

Exploring modern bank penetration: Evidence from early twentieth-century Netherlands

We analyse the estate composition of the richest 30 per cent of people who died in the Netherlands in 1921 to find that households used a broad range of institutions to meet their financial demands. Goods and services were either paid in cash or settled periodically with suppliers. Despite the strong growth of commercial banking in the previous decades, households still made extensive use of peer-to-peer loans, with or without the added security of notarial contracts. Banks only possessed a competitive edge in savings accounts for small surpluses and current accounts, the latter used most frequently by business owners born after 1870. Distance to the nearest bank office did not matter for these people, but wealthy urbanites were more inclined to use banks than their counterparts in the countryside.     

Effects of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply: Evidence from Chile

In this paper, I estimate the effect of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply for a representative sample of Chilean workers. Using nonlinear patterns in pension benefit formulas and a reform that permanently changed non-contributory pensions, I estimate the effect of pension accrual and expected pension wealth on labor force and contributory-sector participation, labor earnings, and hours worked. I find that the effect is concentrated on the impact of pension accrual on the probability to contribute to the pension system. The effect is heterogeneous and is concentrated among middle-aged workers, low-skilled workers, and workers with higher financial literacy.     

Tourism Demand Forecasting with Neural Network Models: Different Ways of Treating Information

This paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi‐layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that multi‐layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks. We repeated the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags used for concatenation so as to evaluate the effect of the memory on the forecasting results. We find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long‐term forecasting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.