FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE TWIN DEFICITS

In a 1989 Contemporary Policy Issues article Miller and Russek published findings of a causal relation between the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit. However, they found no overwhelming support for reverse causation between the twin deficits. The authors of the analysis here gathered annual data on U.S. federal budget deficits and net exports for 1950–1988 and deflated the nominal values by the GDP deflators to examine the causal relation based on real values. They made a distinction between structural and actual budget deficits. Instead of an arbitrary choice of lag structure, they used Hsiao (1979, 1981) minimum final prediction error criterion to determine the optimum lag lengths of the explanatory variables. The analysis reveals a unidirectional causal relation running from structural budget deficits to net exports, confirming some of Miller and Russek's findings. Contrary to Miller and Russek's conclusions, however, findings here indicate a bi-directional causal relation between actual budget deficits and net exports. These findings suggest important policy implications.     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES AND HOSPITALIZATION IN GERMANY

The dramatically rising health expenditures have become a matter of prime concern. Using a rich panel dataset this paper contributes to this debate by investigating factors determining the demand for hospitalization in Germany. While most previous studies have found a significant impact of social insurance on the demand for hospital trips, the empirical results presented here cast doubts on the role of those economic incentives. There are also important differences in the hospitalization behaviour of men and women, and between the full sample and those with chronic conditions, which have been neglected by the literature. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ASIA'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE

The global economic and financial landscape has been transformed over the past decade by the growing economic size and financial power of emerging economies. The new Group of Twenty summit process, which includes the largest emerging economies, has established high‐level international policy cooperation in this new setting. This article argues that effective global economic governance will also require changes in key global organizations—such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and the Financial Stability Board—and closer collaboration between global and regional organizations. We suggest that federalism be introduced on a global scale by creating hierarchies of global and regional organizations with overlapping ownership structures in various functional areas (as is already the case with the World Bank and regional development banks in the area of development finance). Asia could contribute to this transformation by building effective institutions to promote macroeconomic and financial stability and deepen regional trade and investment integration. Similar logic could be applied to a broader issue of providing international public goods, such as environmental and climate protection, communicable disease control, and disaster risk management. (JEL F02, F13, F33, F55, O59)     

Do They Have Your Number? Understanding the Moderating Role of Format Effects and Consumer Numeracy for Quantitative Front‐of‐Package Nutrition Claims

Front‐of‐package (FOP) nutrient content claims are often used by food manufacturers to promote the nutrition levels of their products. In this research, two studies examine the influence of the numerical format (either percentages or absolute numbers) presented on FOP‐reduced nutrient content claims and the moderating influence of consumers' numeracy levels (i.e., consumers' ability to interpret numbers). Low numerate consumers are more strongly influenced by the label's numerical format, but results differ across nutrition attributes linked to cardiovascular disease risk. For saturated fat, low numerate consumers had more favorable evaluations of the product that had a label presented in a percent format compared to an absolute unit format. In contrast, the moderating effect of numeracy had little effect on the format of reduced sodium claims. Implications are offered for policymakers, consumer researchers, and food manufacturers .     

Why Option Prices Lag Stock Prices: A Trading-based Explanation

While many studies find that option prices lead stock prices, Stephan and Whaley (1990) find that stocks lead options. We find no evidence that options, even deep out-of-the-money options, lead stocks. After confirming Stephan and Whaley's results, we show their results can be explained as spurious leads induced by infrequent trading of options. We show that the stock lead disappears when the average of the bid and ask prices is used instead of transaction prices. Hence, we find no evidence of arbitrage opportunities associated with the stock lead.     

Multi-Product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy

We present a new model of multi-product firms (MPFs) and flexible manufacturing, and explore its implications in partial and general oligopolistic equilibrium. Globalization affects the scale and scope (or intensive margin and intra-firm extensive margin) of MPFs through a competition effect and a demand effect. The model highlights a new source of gains from trade: productivity increases as firms become "leaner and meaner", concentrating on their core competence; but also a new source of losses from trade: product variety may fall. Our results also hold under free entry, which allows in addition for adjustment along the traditional inter-firm extensive margin.     

Bargaining by Limiting Cooperation: Withholding Consent for the Level of a Public Good

This paper analyzes how the ability to limit cooperation influences the outcome of complete information bargaining between two players. When cooperation involves prompt resolution of a conflict, as in alternating-offer games and wars-of-attrition, the solutions equate the marginal rates of substitution between earlier resolution and more private goods. When cooperation involves consent for the level of a public good, the outcome again equates the marginal rates of substitution between greater cooperation (more public good) and more private goods (lower cost shares). Here, the equilibrium consists of balanced linear cost shares given by the ratio of marginal-willingness-to-pay to marginal cost.     

Men, Women and the Hiring Function

This paper examines the idea of ranking of groups and genders of unemployed labour force participants in terms of their hiring probabilities.We find a clear ranking of men over women in the hiring process in Australia. We also find that amongst males, employed job seekers are ranked above those unemployed and, in turn, above those not in the labour force. For women, the unemployed and employed are not found to be competing with each other, whilst those not in the labour force are ranked below the unemployed.