Incorrect asymptotic size of subsampling procedures based on post-consistent model selection estimators

Subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap have been suggested in the literature as methods for carrying out inference based on post-model selection estimators and shrinkage estimators. In this paper we consider a subsampling confidence interval (CI) that is based on an estimator that can be viewed either as a post-model selection estimator that employs a consistent model selection procedure or as a super-efficient estimator. We show that the subsampling CI (of nominal level 1−α for any α(0,1)) has asymptotic confidence size (defined to be the limit of finite-sample size) equal to zero in a very simple regular model. The same result holds for the m out of n bootstrap provided m²/n→0 and the observations are i.i.d. Similar zero-asymptotic-confidence-size results hold in more complicated models that are covered by the general results given in the paper and for super-efficient and shrinkage estimators that are not post-model selection estimators. Based on these results, subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap are not recommended for obtaining inference based on post-consistent model selection or shrinkage estimators.     

Ownership Structure, Speculation, and Shareholder Intervention

An institution holding shares in a firm can use information about the firm both for trading ("speculation") and for deciding whether to intervene to improve firm performance. Intervention increases the value of the institution's existing shareholdings, but intervention only increases the institution's trading profits if it enhances the precision of the institution's information relative to that of uninformed traders. Thus, the ability to speculate can increase or decrease institutional intervention. We examine key factors that affect the intervention decision, the usefulness of "short-swing" provisions and restricted shares in encouraging institutional intervention, and implications for ownership structure across different firms.     

Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model

The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector. We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986–2000. The empirical results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power, and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R&D support. Feed-in tariffs also play an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher is the feed-in price the higher is, ceteris paribus, the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations.      

Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications*

Structural vector‐autoregressive models are potentially very useful tools for guiding both macro‐ and microeconomic policy. In this study, we present a recently developed method for estimating such models, which uses non‐normality to recover the causal structure underlying the observations. We show how the method can be applied to both microeconomic data (to study the processes of firm growth and firm performance) and macroeconomic data (to analyse the effects of monetary policy).     

Japanese Professional Business Services: A Proposed Analytical Typology

This paper explores certain characteristics of Japanese professional business services (PBS). The aim is to develop an analytical typology consisting of the three dimensions – organizational linkage, service market, and competitive situation – for analysing the obtained empirical data. This typology has been developed in order to increase the understanding of how Japanese companies operate within this sector and also to examine the reasons behind the fact that Japanese business services seem to be marginalized in an international context. This typology could serve as a theoretical frame for comparing Japanese companies with western companies in future research. This research is based on empirical material collected in Japan in the spring of 2001, covering research institutes, general trading houses and insurance companies. Using the constructed analytical typology, the findings reveal that strong organizational linkages have generated a business service market where diversification of service supply within companies is common. However, there are strong indications of a changing business environment with increased competition and further specialization among business service firms. Furthermore, the findings indicate that Japanese companies have difficulties competing with highly-specialized and reputable western business service firms.     

Applications of subsampling,hybrid, and size-correction methods

This paper analyzes the properties of subsampling, hybrid subsampling, and size-correction methods in two non-regular models. The latter two procedures are introduced in Andrews and Guggenberger (2009a). The models are non-regular in the sense that the test statistics of interest exhibit a discontinuity in their limit distribution as a function of a parameter in the model. The first model is a linear instrumental variables (IV) model with possibly weak IVs estimated using two-stage least squares (2SLS). In this case, the discontinuity occurs when the concentration parameter is zero. The second model is a linear regression model in which the parameter of interest may be near a boundary. In this case, the discontinuity occurs when the parameter is on the boundary.     

Demonstration or congestion? Export spillovers in Sweden

A key feature of the Swedish economy over the last two decades has been the rapid internationalisation of its economy, both through FDI and exports. In this paper we consider their inter-relationship, examining whether there have been spillovers from foreign firms to the export performance of domestic firms. We also contribute to the empirical modelling of export spillovers. We do this by exploiting information on whether foreign MNE sales are intra-firm or inter-firm, and by allowing for heterogeneity in the characteristics of the sender and receiver of spillovers. Our results indicate that foreign MNEs had positive effects on Swedish exports.     

Gross national happiness

This article considers the concept of gross national happinesss, as it has evolved in Bhutan, against the background of literature on the pursuit of happiness as a government objective and the problems associated with different approaches to measuring well-being. It concludes that since all measures of well-being are imperfect, including the measure of gross national happiness currently being applied in Bhutan, the best approach is to use a range of different measures, including conventional national accounting indicators.     

Young adults’ borrowing to purchases of desired consumer products related to present‐biased temporal discounting,attitude towards borrowing and financial involvement and knowledge

The aim is to investigate how present‐biased temporal discounting caused by feelings of financial deficit, attitude towards borrowing and financial involvement and knowledge determine young adults’ likelihood of borrowing to purchases of desired consumer products. A sample of 273 young adults aged 18–30 years answered an online questionnaire including experimental treatments to induce present‐biased temporal discounting, followed by questions about attitude towards borrowing, financial involvement/knowledge and financial resources. In different treatment conditions, participants rated the likelihood of borrowing to purchases of desired consumer products at prices judged to be unaffordable or to replace purchases of equally expensive products in the future but not immediately. In a control condition, participants rated the likelihood of borrowing to an equally expensive, already purchased product to be paid immediately. A higher likelihood of borrowing to purchases of the desired and already purchased unpaid products was observed, but the difference to the needed products was not statistically significant. Likelihood of borrowing was strongly suppressed by a negative attitude, in all between‐group conditions equally influenced by self‐assessed financial resources but unaffected by financial involvement/knowledge. Both financial involvement/knowledge and a negative attitude decreased choices of months of instalment payments with the consequence that the monthly repayment cost increased.