Serial and spatial error correlation

This paper demonstrates that jointly modeling serial and spatial error correlation results in a trade-off between the serial and spatial autocorrelation coefficients. Ignoring this trade-off causes inefficiency and may lead to nonstationarity.     

Embodied and Disembodied Technical Change in Fisheries: An Analysis of the Sète Trawl Fishery, 1985–1999

Overfishing and excess capacity in mostfisheries around the world have generated considerableand increasing concern about their biological and economic performance ramifications. Theseproblems, in part, stem from substantialinvestment in technical improvements to boats andequipment in fishing fleets, which exacerbatesexcess fishing capacity and low returns tofishing effort and investment, given regulatoryand biological constraints. However, little attempt hasbeen made to quantify the extent or effects oftechnical change in fisheries. In this paper, we usedetailed data on innovation patterns for 19vessels in the Sète trawl fleet of southernFrance to evaluate the contributions oftechnical change to catch rates. We find thatembodied technical change enhanced productivity by approximately one percent per year between 1985 and 1999, but that external (disembodied) events counteractedthis trend, causing a net output decline ofabout three percent per year.     

Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies

Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.     

Solving optimal timing problems in environmental economics

Two papers of Pindyck, 2000, Pindyck, 2002 that modeled the control of stock pollutants as optimal stopping problems contained closed form solutions that are incorrect. This paper discusses a subtle error in the derivation and demonstrates how solutions to these and related problems can be obtained numerically. The numerical solutions are contrasted with the ones contained in Pindyck's original papers.     

The Viability of Keynesian Demand Management in an Open Economy Context

This paper explains why, in an open economy context, Keynes-type demand management policies appear to have lost their ability to create jobs domestically. Instead stimulatory policies tend to create an import deficit (as jobs are created abroad) and the ear of inflation domestically. The paper then suggests remedies that will resurrect Keynes-demand management policies to stimulate expansion without experiencing balance of payment problems or domestic inflation.     

Trans-organizational innovation: a framework for research

Information and communication technologies, the evolution of a pattern of innovation based on technology fusion and the transition towards a knowledge-based economy are dominant trends. These trends support trans-organitational innovation, which typically involves the design of complex and technologically hybrid products. Trans-organizational innovation involves generating new knowledge out of knowledge inputs which are distributed across disciplines and organizations which may be geographically dispersed. This is critically dependent on management processes associated with learning. Learning is a contextually situated and interaction-intensive process, which during product innovation involves mutual interaction between characteristics of product and those of context. Such interactions continually evolve the designed form and functionalig of a product. Existing research has tended to neglect the complexities involved in trans-organitational innovation. A product-in-context framework for analyzing the trans-organitational innovation process is detailed in this paper. This framework can be used to examine the relationship between critical features at Product and context which mediate learning during trans-organizational product design and innovation and account for product design variation.     

Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

Elastic demand, sunk costs and the Kreps–Scheinkman extension of the Cournot model

Summary. The paper shows that, with any rationing mechanism between the efficient and proportional extremes, the Kreps-Scheinkman two-stage quantity-price game reduces to the Cournot model if demand is uniformly elastic and if all costs are sunk at the first stage, thus providing positive results to set against existing negative statements. Received: May 24, 1995; revised version: March 6, 1997