The problem of optimum stratification and allocation withq=n/N>0

Summary Dalenius/Gurney [1951] published necessary conditions for the stratum boundaries, so that with Neyman's optimal allocation of the sample sizen the variance of the sample mean will become a minimum. They introduced in the variance of the sample mean for the sample sizesn _h the opti mal values according to Neyman and differentiated this variance with respect to the stratum boundaries. Because Neyman's allocation formula yields only feasible solutions forn _h N _h , the conditions ofDalenius result in wrong, i.e. nonfeasible solutions, if one of the restrictionsn _h N _h (h=1 (1) L) is violated.By the example of a logarithmic normal distribution with =0, =1,5 forL=2 the behaviour of the Dalenius-Neyman-minimum and that of the feasible minimum will be shown in dependence on the sampling fractionq=n/N and a critical valueq _c will be given. For valuesq>q _c the Dalenius-Neyman-minimum is no longer feasible.For the same logarithmic normal distribution andL=2 (1) 10 this critical sampling fractionq _c will be given (section 5).For different values of andq the optimal stratum boundaries and sampling fractions are listed in section 6 forL=2;3;4.     

De Wet en de kansspelen

In the Netherlands all gambling is forbidden except in a few cases specially mentioned in the law. Time and again specialists in probability theory or statistics are called upon to testify as experts in lawsuits against law evaders. This paper discusses the part played by the experts in such legal procedures. It is pointed out that according to Dutch jurisprudence there does not exist an exclusive distinction between games of chance and games of skill. A simple declaration by an expert that a given game is largely based on chance suffices to see the game sentenced as against the law. This and various other related questions are discussed in detail and illustrated by examples taken from personal experience in the courts.     

ITC voting behavior on sunset reviews

This paper is the first attempt to analyze ITC Commissioner voting behavior on sunset reviews of antidumping cases. Sunset determinations entail greater complexity than initial antidumping investigations because ITC commissioners must account for the impact of dumping protection as well as competitive forces on industry conditions. Empirical findings indicate that ITC voting is based on both sunset regulation and nonstatutory factors. Results reveal apparent biases against Chinese competitors and poorer nations generally, and favorable treatment toward U.S. steel producers and high-wage industries. There is also evidence of preferential treatment of industries located in states of Senate oversight committee members. JEL no. F13     

The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty

Most researchers examining poverty and multilateral trade liberalizationhave had to examine average, or per capita effects, suggestingthat if per capita real income rises, poverty will fall. Thisinference can be misleading. Combining results from a new internationalcross-section consumption analysis with earnings data from householdsurveys, this article analyzes the implications of multilateraltrade liberalization for poverty in Indonesia. It finds thatthe aggregate reduction in Indonesia's national poverty headcountfollowing global trade liberalization masks a more complex setof impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty headcountrises slightly for self-employed agricultural households, asagricultural profits fail to keep up with increases in consumerprices. In the long run the poverty headcount falls for allearnings strata, as increased demand for unskilled workers liftsincomes for the formerly self-employed, some of whom move intothe wage labor market. A decomposition of the poverty changesin Indonesia associated with different countries' trade policiesfinds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction inpoverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of Indonesia'strade policies leads to an increase. The method used here canbe readily extended to any of the other 13 countries in thesample.     

Selling to the moneyed masses

Over the past decade, the distribution of household incomes has shifted so much that a much larger proportion of consumers now earn significantly higher-than-average incomes--while still falling short of being truly rich. As a result, what used to be a no-man's-land for new product introductions has in many categories become an extremely profitable "new middle ground." How can marketers capitalize on this new territory? The key, say the authors, is to rethink the positioning and design of offerings and the ways they can be brought to market. Take, for instance, how Procter & Gamble redefined the positioning map for tooth-whitening solutions. A decade ago, dental centers were popularizing expensive bleaching techniques that put the price of a professionally brightened smile in the 400 dollars range. At the low end, consumers also had the choice of whitening toothpastes that cost anywhere from 2 dollars to 8 dollars. P&G wisely positioned itself between the two ends, successfully targeting the new mass market with its 35 dollars Whitestrips. In product categories where it's clear the middle ground has already been populated, it's important for companies to design or redesign offerings to compete. An example is the Polo shirt. How do you sell a man yet another one after he's bought every color he wants? Add some features, and call it a golf shirt. Here, marketers have introduced designs based on the concept of "occasional use" in order to stand out. Finally, companies wishing to reach the "almost rich" can change how they go to market. Perhaps no mass retailer has made a stronger bid for the mass affluent than Target Stores, which has pioneered a focus the company itself characterizes as upscale discount. The strategy has made Target an everyday shopping phenomenon among well-heeled urbanites and prosperous professionals.     

The benefits of non-radial vs. radial super-efficiency DEA: an application to burden-sharing amongst NATO member nations

Using radial super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA) has improved the discriminating performance across efficient decision-making units (DMUs). This paper extends the super-efficiency approach to a non-radial super-efficiency DEA (NRSE-DEA) index. NRSE-DEA is shown to be invariant to units of input (output) measurement. NRSE-DEA is illustrated here via an application to NATO burden-sharing assessment in which the DMUs are the member nations of NATO. The NRSE-DEA provides additional insights into the ranking of efficient countries, suggesting which are absorbing a particularly large share of NATO responsibilities. The NRSE-DEA generates a smaller set of efficient DMUs. This, in turn, provides more discriminatory power, a more accurate measure of super-efficiency, a more meaningful ranking of the efficient burden sharing countries, and a more reliable assessment of contributions by NATO members, amongst other policy issues.     

Two new proofs of Afriat’s theorem

Summary. We provide two new, simple proofs of Afriats celebrated theorem stating that a finite set of price-quantity observations is consistent with utility maximization if, and only if, the observations satisfy a variation of the Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference known as the Generalized Axiom of Revealed PreferenceReceived: 12 June 2003, Revised: 9 October 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, C60.Correspondence to: A. Fostel