浅论我国口述史工作者的修养

当代口述史研究引入我国时间尚短,符合我国实际的口述史研究范式和理论还在探索中。口述史研究因其生动性、民主性和广泛性等特点,研究方法逐渐为诸多学科吸纳。口述史研究要加快发展,取得更大的突破,其从业者的修养问题应给予重视。口述史工作者只有持“公正”之心;拥有扎实的史学功底和经过相关的专业培训;汲取相关学科成果,与时代紧密结合;高扬民主旗帜,让大众参与历史还原,口述史研究才能健康、持久。     

权证对投资者投资偏好影响的实证研究

金融衍生产品的出现提高了证券市场信息传递的速度，知情交易者通过对衍生品的投资提高传递的效率。本文通过对我国权证市场和相应标的股票市场交易高频数据的研究，探讨知情交易者在权证市场出现后是否改变了投资的对象。实证结果表明，尽管有部分知情交易者投资了认购权证，但是并没有证据表明知情交易者偏好认沽权证。造成这一结果的原因可能是权证制度自身的缺陷。     

How Banks' Value-at-Risk Disclosures Predict their Total and Priced Risk: Effects of Bank Technical Sophistication and Learning over Time

Using a sample of eight large commercial banks from 1994 to 2000, Jorion (2002) finds that banks' VaR disclosures for their trading portfolios predict trading income variability. We extend Jorion's findings using a larger sample of 17 banks from 1997 to 2002 reporting trading VaRs under FRR No. 48 (1997). We find that banks' trading VaRs have predictive power for trading income variability that increases with bank technical sophistication and over time. We find that banks' trading VaRs have predictive power for a bank-wide measure of total risk, return variability, and for two bank-wide measures of priced risk, beta and realized returns.     

Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.     

Multiperiod Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategies with Mortality Risk and Environment Uncertainty

Abstract

In this article we investigate three related investment-consumption problems for a risk-averse investor: (1) an investment-only problem that involves utility from only terminal wealth, (2) an investment-consumption problem that involves utility from only consumption, and (3) an extended investment-consumption problem that involves utility from both consumption and terminal wealth. Although these problems have been studied quite extensively in continuous-time frameworks, we focus on discrete time. Our contributions are (1) to model these investmentconsumption problems using a discrete model that incorporates the environment risk and mortality risk, in addition to the market risk that is typically considered, and (2) to derive explicit expressions of the optimal investment-consumption strategies to these modeled problems. Furthermore, economic implications of our results are presented. It is reassuring that many of our findings are consistent with the well-known results from the continuous-time models, even though our models have the additional features of modeling the environment uncertainty and the uncertain exit time.     

论中小商业银行对中国中小企业融资支持

分析了中小商业银行是中小企业融资的重要渠道，对中小企业的成长起着重要作用。因此，大力发展中小商业银行，完善中小金融体系是解决我国融资难的一个根本出路。     

Judgment effects of familiarity with an analyst’s name

We conduct an experiment with MBA students where we manipulate whether participants are exposed to an analyst’s name in Stage 1, and whether they are given a cue in Stage 2 about the particular analyst’s prior performance as an All-star analyst. We find that in the absence of a favorable performance cue about the analyst, mere exposure to the analyst’s name enhances perceived analyst credibility, which in turn influences the investors’ earnings estimates. This suggests a benefit to analysts in terms of building credibility merely through media exposure that cannot be explained by performance. In fact, a diagnostic cue such as the analyst’s high prior performance no longer matters to investors once they have prior exposure to the analyst’s name. However, this enhancement of an analyst’s credibility through investors’ prior exposure to his/her name is reversed when the analyst’s forecast turns out to be inaccurate.     

Performance measurement considering the interdependence of evaluators and criteria

This research constructs a performance evaluation mechanism in regard to the interdependence of evaluators and criteria. The interest in performance evaluation has spawned a number of studies that investigated criteria or evaluators for organizations’ performance evaluation. However, very little attention has been paid to address the relationship between the evaluators and criteria. It is quite clear that there are different standpoints exist in different evaluators, consequently particular evaluators usually emphasize certain groups of criteria more than others. On the other hand, considering different criteria the strength of relation of evaluator changes accordingly. We address the existence of interaction between evaluator and criteria, because the two factors play major roles in the performance evaluation. This consideration gives top managers the chance to explore and realize the relationship between evaluators and criteria. It also reveals the evaluators’ synthetic standpoints about criteria, which are meaningful for managerial purposes.