On the Unequal Inequality of Poor Communities

Communities differ in important ways in their needs, capacities,and circumstances. Because central governments are not ableto discern these differences fully, they seek to achieve theirpolicy objectives by relying on decentralized mechanisms thatuse local information. Household and individual characteristicswithin communities can also vary substantially. A growing bodyof theoretical literature suggests that inequality within communitiescan influence policy outcomes in ways that are either harmfulor helpful, depending on the circumstances. Until recently,empirical investigations into the impact of inequality havebeen held back by a lack of systematic evidence on community-levelinequality. This study uses household survey and populationcensus data to estimate per capita consumption inequality withincommunities in three developing economies. It finds that communitiesvary markedly in their degree of inequality. It also shows thatthere should be no presumption that inequality is less severein poor communities. The kind of community-level inequalityestimates generated here can be used in designing and evaluatingdecentralized antipoverty programs.     

What Drives Consumption Booms?

Consumption booms have been common in both industrial and developingcountries, and several explanations have been offered for theiroccurrence. These include economywide wealth effects associatedwith favorable movements in the terms of trade or euphoric expectationstriggered by macroeconomic reforms, Ricardian effects associatedwith fiscal stabilization, lending booms following financialliberalization, and a variety of distortions in intertemporalrelative prices. Using a large cross-country sample of booms,this article assesses how widely applicable these explanationsare. The key finding is that wealth effects linked to favorablemovements in the terms of trade and anticipated improvementsin macroeconomic performance seem to have been more importantempirically than explanations relying primarily on fiscal phenomenaor distortions in intertemporal relative prices.     

Pricing Options under Generalized GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Processes

In this paper, we develop an efficient lattice algorithm to price European and American options under discrete time GARCH processes. We show that this algorithm is easily extended to price options under generalized GARCH processes, with many of the existing stochastic volatility bivariate diffusion models appearing as limiting cases. We establish one unifying algorithm that can price options under almost all existing GARCH specifications as well as under a large family of bivariate diffusions in which volatility follows its own, perhaps correlated, process.     

Hedging in the Possible Presence of Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Swaption Markets

This paper examines whether higher order multifactor models, with state variables linked solely to underlying LIBOR‐swap rates, are by themselves capable of explaining and hedging interest rate derivatives, or whether models explicitly exhibiting features such as unspanned stochastic volatility are necessary. Our research shows that swaptions and even swaption straddles can be well hedged with LIBOR bonds alone. We examine the potential benefits of looking outside the LIBOR market for factors that might impact swaption prices without impacting swap rates, and find them to be minor, indicating that the swaption market is well integrated with the LIBOR‐swap market.     

Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices

A stock market liberalization is a decision by a country's government to allow foreigners to purchase shares in that country's stock market. On average, a country's aggregate equity price index experiences abnormal returns of 3.3 percent per month in real dollar terms during an eight-month window leading up to the implementation of its initial stock market liberalization. This result is consistent with the prediction of standard international asset pricing models that stock market liberalization may reduce the liberalizing country's cost of equity capital by allowing for risk sharing between domestic and foreign agents.