Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.     

Measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets: Conventional and Bayesian approaches

Estimating the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid‐ask spreads are usually not observed. Based on an ability to reflect simulated data from Roll's spread model, we assess the effectiveness of conventional and Bayesian bid‐ask spread estimators under different market conditions. Conventional serial covariance and absolute price change spread estimators appear to be biased. Hasbrouck's Bayesian estimator generates small costs of liquidity whose values depend on the correlation and noise in the data. The absolute value Bayesian estimator is precise and works well under conditions of high levels of noise and correlation usually found in agricultural futures markets. Using data from live cattle (LC) and lean hog (LH) contracts, we find similar patterns of performance that produce economically meaningful cost of liquidity differences.     

Positive Job Response and Ethical Job Performance

Although many studies have linked job attitudes and intentions to aspects of in-role and extra-role job performance, there has been relatively little attention given to such job responses in the context of employees’ ethical/unethical behavior. The purpose of this study was to investigate a possible relationship between positive job response (conceptualized as job satisfaction and intention to stay) and behavioral ethics. Ninety-two matched manager-employee pairs from a regional branch of a large financial services and banking firm completed survey instruments, with each employee providing information about his or her job attitudes and intentions and each manager assessing the ethical/unethical performance of his/her employees. Respondents also provided additional information required for our analyses. The results indicated that positive job response among subordinates was associated with higher supervisory ratings of the subordinates’ ethical job performance. The managerial implications of the findings for managing ethical behavior are explored.     

Amenities and Fringe Benefits: Omitted Variable Bias

ABSTRACT If labor is fairly mobile, as it is in the United States, one would expect that households would move from less desirable areas toward more desirable areas until all areas are equally desirable. The way that areas become equally desirable is through the impact of movers on wages and rents (and possibly endogenous disamenities, such as congestion or pollution). That is, as people move to desirable areas, they will increase the demand for land (raising rents) and increase the supply of labor (lowering wages); in equilibrium, the wage and rent compensation for the niceness of an area reveals, in dollar terms, just how nice the area is. Blomquist, Berger, and Hoehn 1988 demonstrated the empirical importance of such amenity compensation in estimates of the quality-of-life in urban areas. However, those authors were unable to include fringe benefits, which are about 40 percent of explicit wage payments, in their wage compensation. This matters greatly as amenities are seen here to be even more important than previously thought and the regional implications are pronounced, with the West and Southeast looking better when fringe benefits are included and the East North Central and Northeast looking substantially worse.     

Post-War Productivity Patterns in U.S. Agriculture: Influences of Aggregation Procedures in a State-Level Analysis

Annual data for forty-eight states are used to account for changes in the composition of input and output aggregates over space and time, and thereby to obtain new evidence on changes in inputs, outputs, and productivity in U.S. agriculture. The measures change significantly when we use state-specific rather than national prices and when we allow for changes in the composition of the aggregates, especially of labor and capital inputs. We compare our estimates and those reported by Ball et al. ( American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(1999):164–79). The national estimates are similar but substantial differences are found in state-level productivity growth.     

Formal and informal contract farming in Mozambique: Socially embedded relations of agricultural intensification

This paper explores the role of contract farming arrangements in agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa, combining secondary literature and original case material from Mozambique. The paper extends the scope of “contract farming” beyond the formal contracts between large companies and small-scale producers to include less formal credit agreements between farmers and traders. It argues that such informal contract arrangements are evidence of farmers' agency in “real markets.” In the studied cases, farmers use contract farming opportunities to intensify agricultural production by investing in irrigation and inputs. While informal contracts typically concern locally consumed crops, thus with more possibilities for side selling than formal contracts for export crops with company-controlled markets, informal contract compliance reflects closely knit social ties between the contracting parties. In both formal and informal contracts, purchasers tend to seek out producers who are already irrigating, thus obtaining gains from farmers' earlier investments. This also implies contract farming as a mechanism for accelerating social differentiation arising from unequal access to irrigation. The paper argues that the significance of informal contracts in the studied cases raises the possibility that informal contract farming by local traders plays a more important role in agrarian transformation in Africa than formal contract farming by large companies.     

Reflexive Interdisciplinary Research: The Making of a Research Programme on the Rural Economy and Land Use

This paper provides an account of the origins and formation of the UK Research Councils’ Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) programme and its approach to promoting interdisciplinary working between social and natural scientists. The programme is set in the context of broader developments in science policy, including a policy discourse centred upon sustainable development and the knowledge economy and associated demands for greater accountability in science. Interdisciplinarity promises research that will be more relevant and responsive to public needs and concerns. In describing the provenance of the RELU programme, therefore, the paper seeks to lay out the different stages in its initiation and design to show how, to varying degrees, these were open to external scrutiny and influence. The process of developing the programme illustrates that it is not straightforward to make research agendas and funding more transparent and accountable. It also provides insights into the challenges that interdisciplinarity and accountability present to established science institutions.     

Instructor quality affecting emergency medical technician (EMT) preparedness: a LEADS project*

This represents one of a series of studies of the Longitudinal Emergency Medical Technician Attributes and Demographics Study (LEADS) being undertaken by the National Registry of Emergency Medical Technicians and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). This secondary analysis of the LEADS database, which provides a representative sampling of EMTs throughout the United States, examines the effects of instructor quality on the level of preparedness of emergency medical technicians (EMTs). Results showed significant differences, based on instructor quality, in the ratings on ten dimensions of EMT preparedness for both EMT Basics and EMT Paramedics. Implications for HRD practitioners, adult educators and researchers are discussed.