Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series

This paper reviews various recent approaches to cointegration analysis of seasonal time series. In addition to the usual decisions concerning data transformations and univariate time series properties, it is necessary to decide how seasonal variation is included in the multivariate model and how standard cointegration methods should accordingly be modified. Seasonal cointegration and periodic cointegration methods are discussed, as are some of their recent refinements. An overview of further research topics is also provided.     

Consumer profiles section: Consumer profiles for conventional bed and waterbed owners in Canada

This study examines consumer profile data on waterbed and conventional bed consumers. Five hundred conventional and waterbed consumers in Canada were randomly selected from two national lists of waterbed/mattress purchasers from 1981 to the present. A 73-item questionnaire was sent by mail to all of the selected respondents. The cover letter stated the purpose of the project; to study why people bought the bed that they are presently using. One hundred and sixty-two completed, useable questionnaires were returned, yielding a response rate of 37%. Following a series of multivariate analyses, a consumer profile for the two bed users was developed. Both groups tended to be married. The conventional bed consumers had: (a) either no children or one child at home; (b) a mean age of 44; and, (c) an average income in the $30,000-$40,000 range. Waterbed consumers had: (a) a mean age of 36, (b) one child living at home; and, (c) an average income in the $20,000-$30,000 range. On the Adorno F scale, the conventional bed user was found to be more conservative and authoritarian as compared to the waterbed user. The results did not support the notion that waterbed users are abnormally sexually-oriented or “kinky”. For both groups, the price paid for the purchased bed fell in the $600 to $650 range. Implications for retailers were discussed.     

The potential impact of abolishing company tax in Ciskei

The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely effect of the abolition of company tax on the Ciskeian economy. After considering the case for and against a corporate tax exemption, the issues involved are analysed on two levels. Using aggregate data, drawn from available census data, we find that most firms seem likely either to prefer the existing package of industrial concessions to the tax holiday, or to be indifferent to either option. Similarly, a recent survey of manufacturing enterprises in Ciskei indicated that the majority would prefer the incentive package. Firms that might be attracted by the tax‐free option are likely to be relatively profitable, subsidiaries of multinational companies, and enjoying a higher turnover per worker than firms opting for the incentive package.     

The transition from social insecurity

The paper analyses the insecurity of state relative to private pensions. It considers issues such as moral hazard, policy-induced risk and the way in which property rights accrue to a scheme's beneficiaries. The article concludes that state schemes are fundamentally more insecure than private schemes and that the difficulties of state schemes have not arisen simply because of an accident of demographics. The difficulties of private pension schemes are also discussed as well as the transition problems arising from moving from state to private arrangements.     

A Meta-Analysis of Achievement Motivation Differences between Entrepreneurs and Managers*

As a result of conflicting conclusions in primary studies, most narrative reviews have questioned the role of personality in explaining entrepreneurial behavior. We examine one stream of this research by conducting a meta-analysis of studies that contrast the achievement motivation of entrepreneurs and managers. The results indicate that entrepreneurs exhibit higher achievement motivation than managers and that these differences are influenced by the entrepreneur's venture goals, by the use of U.S. or foreign samples, and, to a less clear extent, by projective or objective instrumentation. Moreover, when the analysis is restricted to venture founders, the difference between entrepreneurs and managers on achievement motivation is substantially larger and the credibility intervals do not include zero.     

RISK DECISIONS FOR BEEF PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN THE COLOMBIAN SAVANNAS

A beef simulation model was used to examine a range of production possibilities for increasing the output of extensive ranching systems in the tropical savannas of eastern Colombia through the use of sown grass-legume pastures of higher inherent digestibility than that of the native species. Generalised stochastic dominance was used to compare some promising alternatives with the unimproved savanna-based production system and with each other. As the planning horizon of the decision maker was reduced, so variability, measured as the coefficient of variation of output, increased significantly. The impact of risk on the long-term acceptability of a complete investment was limited.