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81.
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates nowcasts and forecasts of real GDP growth using five models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider. 相似文献
82.
Risk-neutral compatibility with option prices 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A common problem is to choose a “risk-neutral” measure in an incomplete market in asset pricing models. We show in this paper
that in some circumstances it is possible to choose a unique “equivalent local martingale measure” by completing the market
with option prices. We do this by modeling the behavior of the stock price X, together with the behavior of the option prices for a relevant family of options which are (or can theoretically be) effectively
traded. In doing so, we need to ensure a kind of “compatibility” between X and the prices of our options, and this poses some significant mathematical difficulties. 相似文献
83.
Philip Long 《Journal of Sustainable Tourism》2013,21(3):190-206
There is a growing recognition of the importance of inter-organisational collaborations, or partnerships, for tourism development at various geographical and sectoral levels. Academic studies of the phenomenon are, in part, a reflection of the increasing number and forms of partnership arrangements being established in a range of settings to develop tourism. This paper examines a particular case of inter-organisational collaboration for local tourism development for the London inner city fringe. Established in 1991, Discover Islington provides an illustration of an agency involving representation from diverse stakeholders with an interest in tourism within a single administrative district. The agency has been innovative in its approach to local tourism development in the inner city fringe, but it is confronted by issues that may affect its longer-term viability. The perspectives and experiences of the partners represented on the Board of Discover Islington are pertinent to the study of comparable collaborative arrangements for local tourism development in other urban fringe contexts. The analysis is based on interviews with Board members and their policy and strategy documents within a theoretical framework that draws on regime theory. Implications for other inner city fringe tourism development partnerships are offered in the conclusion of this paper. 相似文献
84.
Companies face many challenges as they staff managerial positions in overseas operations, including decisions on whether to staff using expatriates, host-country nationals, or third-country nationals. We developed an exercise—designed to help students understand the differences between these three groups of employees—that requires students to develop a set of criteria that would form the basis for choosing the candidate they deem to be the best one. In addition, the exercise can serve as a springboard to discussion of the different training and compensation requirements for each of the three different types of employee. The steps involved in the exercise are presented together with suggestions for debriefing the exercise. 相似文献
85.
Philip Bond 《Journal of Economic Theory》2010,145(5):1675-1703
We study the possibility of trade for purely informational reasons. We depart from previous analyses (e.g. Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) [22] and Milgrom and Stokey (1982) [32]) by allowing the final payoff of the asset being traded to depend on an action taken by its eventual owner. We characterize conditions under which equilibria with trade exist. 相似文献
86.
87.
Salvador Carmona Govind Iyer Philip M.J. Reckers 《Advances in accounting, incorporating advances in international accounting》2011,27(1):62-74
Professionals are challenged daily with difficult decisions. Capital budgeting decisions are one type of difficult decision, especially in firms that embrace a Balanced Scorecard management philosophy. In these firms, the decision maker frequently must choose among multiple options on the basis of multiple criteria with no one option dominating across all criteria. Not only must the decision maker evaluate each option on each criteria, the decision maker also must weigh the relative importance of each criteria when making a final judgment. When faced with difficult decisions, decision makers will resort to various coping behaviors, such as decision avoidance or delay, status quo bias, deferral to others' preferences, or reliance on decision aids. In a Balanced Scorecard environment, one important type of decision aid is the strategy map. The ambiguity introduced by multiple options and multiple criteria also creates a condition in which the subjective biases of the decision-maker can easily manifest in the absence or despite decision aids. Among those potential biases are self-interests and national culture. In this study we examine the effects on capital budgeting decisions of two common types of strategy maps as well as incentive effects and national culture. An objective of Balanced Scorecard management practices is to overcome a common North American fixation on short-term financial outcomes. Recent research submits that an appropriate strategy map will facilitate that end by overcoming certain other cognitive limitations (such as fixation on common metrics). Our inquiry will examine whether biases related to self-interests and national culture persist in the presence of two common strategy maps. A behavioral experiment was conducted in which 140 MBA students from Spain and the U.S. with average work experience of 10 years participated. Findings were that significant fixation on short-term financial outcomes persists in the presence of one common strategy map, but not in the presence of an alternate common strategy map, and that incentive and national culture biases persist in the presence of both. In addition, all three experimental variables exhibited significance and equivalent influence, although prior research has only addressed the influence of incentives. 相似文献
88.
This paper examines the effects of learning HIV status on economic behavior among rural Malawians. According to economic life-cycle models, if learning HIV results is informative about additional years of life, being diagnosed HIV-positive or negative should predict changes in consumption, investment and savings behavior with important micro and macro-economic implications. Using an experiment that randomly assigned incentives to learn HIV results, I find that while learning HIV results had short term effects on subjective belief of HIV infection, these differences did not persist after two years. Consistent with this, there were relatively few differences two years later in savings, income, expenditures, and employment between those who learned and did not learn their status. 相似文献
89.
This study examines the returns to 2340 merger deals conducted by 1122 frequent acquirers in 17 emerging markets, during the period 1985 to June 2008. Our primary findings are as follows. Serial acquirers in emerging countries on average experience a declining pattern in returns with subsequent deals, but the pattern is not strong. However, conditional on successful initial deals, the declining pattern is strong for the majority of countries, is large in terms of the magnitude, and is significant in the multivariate regression analysis. We interpret the results as somewhat supportive of the hubris behavior as a factor in serial acquisitions (Roll, J Business 59, 1986). We also find a stronger declining pattern for more developed markets but no substantial difference between civil and common-law countries; the former might be explained by generally greater and increasing competition for control in more developed markets. 相似文献
90.
Philip Abbott 《Futures》2010,42(8):874-881
Is one who imagines a “perfect” (or vastly improved) society also obliged or inclined to imagine a “perfect” (or vastly improved) body as part of her project? If there is in fact a utopian tradition imagining perfect bodies, what new alternatives are conceivable? Should utopian writers pursue any or all of them? Attempts to provide an answer provide critics with perhaps their most penetrating objections to the utopian project since imagining and reproducing perfect bodies entails an intrusiveness even greater than political or economic perfection. But the very intimacy of the body as a site also offers insights into the utopian imagination. Just as certain practices are excised in utopias (private property or money, for instance) and certain ones enhanced (education), so too are utopian bodies, which can be imagined as liberated prisons or improved forms. The utopian body, itself a complex site, becomes the most vivid focus for imaging the nature of perfection itself. New bodies, dramatically enhanced ones such as cyborgs or dramatically reduced ones such as cyber bodies, offer an intense examination of what perfection means and what lengths are worth pursuing to achieve it. 相似文献