Background filtrations and canonical loss processes for top-down models of portfolio credit risk

In single-obligor default risk modeling, using a background filtration in conjunction with a suitable embedding hypothesis (generally known as ℍ-hypothesis or immersion property) has proven a very successful tool to separate the actual default event from the model for the default arrival intensity. In this paper we analyze the conditions under which this approach can be extended to the situation of a portfolio of several obligors, with a particular focus on the so-called top-down approach. We introduce the natural ℍ-hypothesis of this setup (the successive ℍ-hypothesis) and show that it is equivalent to a seemingly weaker one-step ℍ-hypothesis. Furthermore, we provide a canonical construction of a loss process in this setup and provide closed-form solutions for some generic pricing problems. Financial support by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. NCCR FINRISK is a research program supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The authors would like to thank Monique Jeanblanc and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Parts of this paper were presented at RiskDay 2006, Zurich. All remaining errors are our own. Comments and suggestions are very welcome.     

Providing public goods in the absence of strong institutions

This paper proposes a simple two-stage mechanism to establish positive contributions to public goods in the absence of powerful institutions to provide the public good and to sanction free-riders. In this mechanism players commit to the public good by paying a deposit prior to the contribution stage. If there is universal commitment, deposits are immediately refunded whenever a player contributes her specified share to the public good. If there is no universal commitment, all deposits are refunded and the standard game is played. For suitable deposits, prior commitment and full ex post contributions are supported as a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium for the resulting game. As the mechanism obviates the need for any ex post prosecution of free-riders, it is particularly suited for situations where players do not submit to a common authority as in the case of international agreements.     

The persistence of government expenditure shocks and the effect of monopolistic competition on the fiscal multiplier

In this paper, we demonstrate that the influence of monopolisticcompetition in the product market on an economy's impact responseto fiscal shocks depends on the persistence of these shocks.While short-lived increases in lump-sum financed governmentexpenditure have a stronger effect on labor supply if pricesare above marginal costs, the response of employment decreasesin the markup if shocks are highly persistent. However, we alsoshow that, while the impact response of labor supply to temporarygovernment expenditure shocks may be reduced by monopolisticcompetition, the fiscal multiplier is always higher if firmshave market power.     

Determinants and value of enterprise risk management: empirical evidence from Germany

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has become increasingly relevant in recent years, especially due to an increasing complexity of risks and the further development of regulatory frameworks. The aim of this paper is to empirically analyze firm characteristics that determine the implementation of an ERM system and to study the impact of ERM on firm value. We focus on companies listed at the German stock exchange, which to the best of our knowledge is the first empirical study with a cross-sectional analysis for Germany and one of the first for a European country. Our findings show that size, international diversification and the industry sector (banking, insurance, energy) positively impact the implementation of an ERM system, and financial leverage is negatively related to ERM engagement. In addition, our results confirm a significant positive impact of ERM on shareholder value.     

Understanding economic openness: a review of existing measures

Review of World Economics - This paper surveys measures of economic openness, the latter being understood as the degree to which non-domestic actors can or do participate in a domestic economy....     

Cartel Stability and Economic Integration

This paper revisits the notion that economic integration—modeled as a reduction of trade costs—may be anticompetitive, in the sense that it may reinforce the ability of an international cartel to maintain a collusive understanding about staying out of each other’s markets. The paper is novel in terms of introducing ad valorem and fixed trade costs in addition to the customary unit trade costs. It is shown that an anticompetitive effect, found for reductions in unit trade costs, may disappear once trade costs are ad valorem or fixed.     

Long memory and changing persistence

We study the empirical behaviour of semi-parametric estimation for long-memory models when the true data generating process exhibits a change in persistence. Evidence for long memory is likely to be found. Procedures for discrimination between different models are proposed.