Planning eco‐industrial parks: an analysis of Dutch planning methods

In theory, eco‐industrial parks can make significant improvements in the environment. In that light, this article analyses six planning methods currently in use in the Netherlands. The most salient findings are that these methods lack an explicit vision of sustainability, they do not give due consideration to symbiotic or utility‐sharing options, they do not sufficiently engage the companies involved in the development and their policy instruments have a limited environmental impact. The planning methods prove to have many shortcomings: the definition of sustainability is unclear; there are no quantitative standards; information on symbiosis and utility sharing is inadequate; the economic and organizational implications are largely ignored and the environmental impact is insufficiently monitored. However, eco‐industrial parks can only have greater environmental benefits through symbiosis and utility sharing. Therefore, location‐ and company‐specific factors have to be taken into consideration. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

非洲复兴带来投资机遇

世界银行关于今年全球各地区在促进创业、正规行业的就业及增长的改革力度排名中,非洲由最后一位上升到了第三位。这对于准备进入非洲市场的中国公司来说是个好消息     

Worker turnover at the firm level and crowding out of lower educated workers

This paper investigates whether employers exploit cyclical downturns to improve the average skill level of their work force. We use a unique dataset that contains information on workers, jobs as well as firm characteristics. Our findings are that at each job level mainly lower educated workers leave during downturns. Furthermore, at each level of job complexity, workers with a higher education are not more productive than lower educated workers. We find no evidence that higher educated workers crowd out lower educated workers during recessions.     

Convergence of Bayesian learning to general equilibrium in mis-specified models

A central unanswered question in economic theory is that of price formation in disequilibrium. This paper lays the groundwork for a model that has been suggested as an answer to this question in, particularly, Arrow [Toward a theory of price adjustment, in: M. Abramovitz, et al. (Ed.), The Allocation of Economic Resources, Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1959], Fisher [Disequilibrium Foundations of Equilibrium Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983] and Hahn [Information dynamics and equilibrium, in: F. Hahn (Ed.), The Economics of Missing Markets, Information, and Games, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1989]. We consider sellers that monopolistically compete in prices but have incomplete information about the structure of the market they face. They each entertain a simple demand conjecture in which sales are perceived to depend on the own price only, and set prices to maximize expected profits. Prior beliefs on the parameters of conjectured demand are updated into posterior beliefs upon each observation of sales at proposed prices, using Bayes’ rule. The rational learning process, thus, constructed drives the price dynamics of the model. Its properties are analysed. Moreover, a sufficient condition is provided, relating objectively possible events and subjective beliefs, under which the price process is globally stable on a conjectural equilibrium for almost all objectively possible developments of history.     

Multilevel theory and the underspecification of multilevel models

This article emphasises the importance of the adequate specification of models of multilevel analysis in accordance with multilevel theories. Until recent times, multilevel theories tried only to explain the direct effect of group characteristics on an individual's characteristic. It seems to be more suited to adopt a more general theoretical approach, in which it is assumed that group characteristics affects individual processes. There a treshold effect and a process effect have to be distinguished. The propositions result in a model specification within the random coefficient model of multilevel analysis. The theory and model recommended are illustrated by means of data of Dar and Resh's (1986) study into social learning environment.     

Forced Freebies: A Note on Partial Deregulation with Pro Bono Supply Requirements

The liberalization of many former state governed natural monopolies in sectors such as electricity, railroad and telecommunications is done by partial deregulation. Typically, entry is invited into elements of the production chain, yet under strict price and quality controls. This note considers some potential welfare effects of an unconventional type of conditional deregulation, used in the electricity market in Flanders, Belgium, where the utility companies are held to deliver the households they supply a complimentary basic electricity package free of charge. It is shown that, while decreasing the number of new entrants into the liberalized market, such pro bono supply requirements can nevertheless increase net total production. A general condition for a welfare maximizing level of forced freebies is derived.     

Technology driven organizational structure of the firm

We model a corporate firm with a variable internal organizational structure that adapts to various degrees of technological cooperation. The entrepreneur determines the organizational structure that maximizes profits under participation constraints. Wages are determined by an internal cooperative pay-system, constrained by external reservation wages. We show that closer cooperation between production-workers results in a shorter organization with enhanced positional wages relative to the external benchmarks. The corporate firm is embedded in a competitive market economy that determines reservation wages and market prices. We also allow for more general technologies and provide conditions guaranteeing a finite optimal size of the firm. We thank Rob Gilles, Dolf Talman and an anonymous referee for their comments on a previous version of this paper.     

Robust bootstrap procedures for the chain-ladder method

Insurers are faced with the challenge of estimating the future reserves needed to handle historic and outstanding claims that are not fully settled. A well-known and widely used technique is the chain-ladder method, which is a deterministic algorithm. To include a stochastic component one may apply generalized linear models to the run-off triangles based on past claims data. Analytical expressions for the standard deviation of the resulting reserve estimates are typically difficult to derive. A popular alternative approach to obtain inference is to use the bootstrap technique. However, the standard procedures are very sensitive to the possible presence of outliers. These atypical observations, deviating from the pattern of the majority of the data, may both inflate or deflate traditional reserve estimates and corresponding inference such as their standard errors. Even when paired with a robust chain-ladder method, classical bootstrap inference may break down. Therefore, we discuss and implement several robust bootstrap procedures in the claims reserving framework and we investigate and compare their performance on both simulated and real data. We also illustrate their use for obtaining the distribution of one year risk measures.     

Enterprise clusters in developing countries: mechanisms of transition and stagnation

This paper analyses the dynamics of clustered enterprise development in developing countries. It is focused on the different types of clusters that can be identified in these contexts. After a brief introduction, the cluster concept is explained and the need to understand clusters as an expression of social connectivity rather than mere spatial agglomerations is established. Next, a typology of clusters is presented. This typology is discussed on the basis of recent research on small and medium-sized enterprise clusters in different countries and continents. The types of linkages prevailing in different types of clusters are analysed, as well as their implications for technological change. It is argued that the mechanisms of enterprise growth and innovative activity are different in each type of cluster and hence the opportunity structures that entrepreneurs face are variable across cluster types. Therefore, the mechanisms of transition from one type to another are different, and these are discussed next, as well as mechanisms of stagnation and continuity. In conclusion, the implications for development research and policy are outlined and it is emphasized that support must be tailored to the actual state of existing clusters and cannot be deduced from general theory.     

Modeling and prediction of surgical procedure times

Accurate prediction of medical operation times is of crucial importance for cost-efficient operation room planning in hospitals. This paper investigates the possible dependence of procedure times on surgeon factors like age, experience, gender and team composition. The effect of these factors is estimated for over 30 different types of medical operations in two hospitals, by means of ANOVA models for logarithmic case durations. The estimation data set contains about 30,000 observations from 2005 to 2008. The relevance of surgeon factors depends on the type of operation. The factors found most often to be significant are team composition, experience and time of the day. Contrary to widespread opinions among surgeons, gender has nearly never a significant effect. By incorporating surgeon factors, the accuracy of out-of-sample prediction of case durations of about 1250 surgical operations in 2009 is improved by up to more than 15% compared with current planning procedures.