Statistical tests of distributional scaling properties for financial return series

Existing empirical evidence of distributional scaling in financial returns has helped motivate the use of multifractal processes for modelling return processes. However, this evidence has relied on informal tests that may be unable to reliably distinguish multifractal processes from other related classes. The current paper develops a formal statistical testing procedure for determining which class of fractal process is most consistent with the distributional scaling properties in a given sample of data. Our testing methodology consists of a set of test statistics, together with a model-based bootstrap resampling scheme to obtain sample p-values. We demonstrate in Monte Carlo exercises that the proposed testing methodology performs well in a wide range of testing environments relevant for financial applications. Finally, the methodology is applied to study the scaling properties of a data-set of intraday equity index and exchange rate returns. The empirical results suggest that the scaling properties of these return series may be inconsistent with purely multifractal processes.     

It Won't Fit! For Innovative Products,Sometimes That's for the Best

The degree of overlap (i.e., fit) between product development organizations' resources and the product development projects pursued has powerful performance implications. Drawing on organizational learning theory and the resource‐based view, this research conceptualizes and empirically tests the interrelationships between the levels of fit, innovativeness, speed to market, and financial new product performance. After reviewing the research literature relevant to resource fit and new product performance, the level of innovativeness is posited to be an important moderating and mediating factor, which is validated by analysis of data gathered from 279 product developing firms. Technological fit has a negative direct effect on both technological and market innovativeness, while the use of existing marketing resources (i.e., a high degree of marketing fit) positively impacts technological innovativeness. This suggests, consistent with findings from market orientation research, that a deep, long‐held customer understanding can promote technological innovativeness. The moderating hypotheses proposed are also well supported: First, a high degree of marketing fit has a more positive impact on performance for market innovative products (e.g., products which address a new target market or use a nontraditional channel for the firm). Drawing on a deep customer understanding is more critical to performance for market innovative products. Conversely, the benefits of marketing fit are limited where market innovativeness is lacking. Interestingly, the counterpart moderating role of technological innovativeness on technological fit's performance effect is not significant; the level of technological innovativeness does not significantly impact the performance impact of technological fit. There are also significant moderating effects across dimensions. Our results show that the financial benefit of using existing marketing resources is lessened for technologically innovative products. Technological innovations necessitate drastic adaptation of marketing resources (i.e., channel and brand); firms drawing only on existing marketing resources for a technologically innovative new product will incur reduced profit. Similarly, the positive implications of using existing technological resources are limited for products which are highly market innovative. Generally, resource fit is seen to have an (oft‐overlooked) dark side in product development, though several of our findings suggest that marketing resources are more flexible than are technological resources.     

Analysing the impact of restructuring transportation,production and distribution on costs and environment – a case from the Thai Rubber industry

Transportation and distribution are key elements to successful supply chains, however there is some disagreement regarding the impact of distribution and transportation restructuring on costs and the environment. This paper explores the use of an optimisation model of Thailand’s rubber industry supply chain, to assess the impact of distribution and transportation on costs and greenhouse gas emissions. It has previously been observed that there is a positive correlation between transportation cost reduction and environmental impact, nevertheless the correlation is not clearly established when the distribution system is restructured. This paper is divided into two parts: the first part examines the impact of transportation service capacity on distribution decisions; the second part of the paper aims to examine the impact of restructuring the distribution network considering multi-modal options on cost and greenhouse gas emissions. For both parts a scenario analysis is utilised in conjunction with an optimisation model to derive the best possible answer in terms of costs and GHG emissions. In this paper, the results obtained indicate that the impact on cost minimisation from the increase in rail freight service capacity is marginal, while the impact on GHG emission minimisation is more significant. In terms of short-sea shipping prices and service capacity, the scenario analysis shows a slight positive impact on cost minimisation but no positive or negative impact on GHG emission minimisation. Results also confirm that in terms of economic advantages, distribution network restructuring provides greater benefit to the industry than does capacity development for the transportation service.     

Imitation and the evolution of Walrasian behavior: Theoretically fragile but behaviorally robust

A well-known result by Vega-Redondo (1997) [18] implies that in symmetric Cournot oligopolies, imitation leads to the Walrasian outcome. We show that this result is not robust to the slightest asymmetry in costs, since every outcome where agents choose identical actions will be played some fraction of the time in the long run. We then conduct experiments to check this fragility. We obtain that, contrary to the theoretical prediction, the Walrasian outcome is a good predictor of market outcomes. Finally, we suggest a new theory based on a mix of imitation and other learning processes that explains subjects' behavior fairly well.     

Performance appraisal: dimensions and determinants

Abstract

Using a sample of Spanish establishments in the manufacturing sector, this article analyses the determinants of the dimensions of performance appraisal. The dimensions examined are performance measures, who evaluates performance and frequency. The results show that the degree of autonomy of the workforce affects positively the use of subjective criteria. It is also more likely that performance appraisal is carried out by the supervisor in the presence of teams and internal promotions. Regarding the explanation of the frequency, teams affect negatively this dimension of performance appraisal.     

Imitation—theory and experimental evidence

We introduce a generalized theoretical approach to study imitation and subject it to rigorous experimental testing. In our theoretical analysis we find that the different predictions of previous imitation models are mainly explained by different informational assumptions, and to a lesser extent by different behavioral rules. In a laboratory experiment we test the different theories by systematically varying information conditions. We find significant effects of seemingly innocent changes in information. Moreover, the generalized imitation model predicts the differences between treatments well. The data provide support for imitation on the individual level, both in terms of choice and in terms of perception. Furthermore, individuals’ propensity to imitate more successful actions is increasing in payoff differences.     

Convergence of fiscal pressure in the EU: a time series approach

The study of fiscal convergence in the EU is a relevant issue in the context of economic integration and fiscal harmonization and we report new empirical evidence on this topic using a time series approach. We apply unit root and stationarity tests with an endogenous break for the study of long run, deterministic and stochastic convergence of the national tax burden taking Germany, the United Kingdom and the European average as benchmarks. Only the United Kingdom and Germany show long run convergence and few countries converge despite harmonization efforts and fiscal competition.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCIES: A REGULAR VINE COPULA APPROACH

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher's (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocks. The first block consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second block consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by nonsignificant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, whereas there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy‐Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann (2013). (JEL C32, C51, E42)     

Nutrient composition of selected fresh and processed fish species from lake Malawi: a nutritional possibility for people living with HIV/AIDS

Nutrition is important for both healthy and sick people. Unfortunately for sick people, especially those living with HIV/AIDS, the emphasis has mostly been on drugs at the expense of nutritional aspects. People living with HIV/AIDS and related diseases need a lot of protein and energy‐rich foods together with vitamins and minerals. Fish are particularly rich in these nutrients. In Malawi, fish are harvested in large numbers and to avoid deterioration, some are smoked, sun dried or partially boiled and then sun dried. Since the nutrient contents of the fresh and processed fish may differ, a study was carried out on four different fresh and processed fish species (Copadichromis inornatus, Rhamphochromis ferox, Engraulicypris sardella and Oreochromis lidole) in order to determine which species was the more nutritive. The results showed that E. sardella and C. inornatus species, fresh or processed, had relatively higher (P < 0.001) protein content (58.22 ± 0.6% and 57.78 ± 0.7% respectively), fat (25.2 ± 1.2 and 22.08 ± 0.4% respectively), energy (24086.7 ± 151.7 J/g and 22204.9 ± 84.7 J/g respectively) than either R. ferox or O. lidole. Although the R. ferox species had lower protein, fat and energy than E. sardella or C. inornatus, this species had higher available lysine content. Calcium and magnesium contents of E. sardella and C. inornatus were however, slightly lower (P < 0.001) than those of the other two species. There were variations between and within the species for all parameters analysed. The results obtained in this work suggest that people living with HIV/AIDS in Malawi can best build their muscle and get more energy and minerals from the E. sardella and C. inornatus fish species. It would therefore be recommended that appropriate technologies for improving the availability and productivity of such fish should be developed and tested for people living with HIV/AIDS or affected households. However, it is suggested that a larger group of the commonly available fish species should be analysed so as to offer a wider choice to consumers.     

How Should the Graduate Economics Core be Changed?

The authors present suggestions by graduate students from a range of economics departments for improving the first-year core sequence in economics. The students identified a number of elements that should be added to the core: more training in building microeconomic models, a discussion of the methodological foundations of model-building, more emphasis on institutions to motivate and contextualize macroeconomic models, and greater focus on econometric practice rather than theory. The authors hope that these suggestions will encourage departments to take a fresh look at the content of the first-year core.