Predictive Regressions: A Present‐Value Approach

We propose a latent variables approach within a present‐value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price‐dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with $R^2$ values ranging from 8.2% to 8.9% for returns and 13.9% to 31.6% for dividend growth rates. Both expected returns and expected dividend growth rates have a persistent component, but expected returns are more persistent than expected dividend growth rates.     

The Consumer Tax Equivalent of a Tariff with Imperfect Substitutes

In estimating the Consumer Tax Equivalent (CTE) and Producer Subsidy Equivalent (PSE) of a tariff, it is often assumed that the imported good is a perfect substitute for the relevant locally made good. However, in evaluating the economy-wide effects of a change in tariff using general equilibrium models, it is common to assume that the imported good is an imperfect substitute (so-called Arming-ton assumption)¹ This paper estimates CTE assuming imperfect substitution in order to be consistent with the assumption commonly used in general equilibrium models. It shows how estimates of the CTE and PSE are sensitive to assumptions about the substitution elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of supply for the locally made good.     

On the Rate Structure of the American Life Insurance Market

This article re-examines the conclusion of previous studies that price dispersion is extreme in the American whole life insurance market. We take an axiomatic approach to the problem of measuring “price” dispersion in the market for the multiparameter whole life contracts, studying the distribution across contract offers of a price index which is uniquely determined by two conditions. In contrast to the accepted wisdom, we find that the derived measure of price dispersion is only 3.6% and that much of this dispersion can be accounted for by measurement error.     

Ambiguity and Public Good Provision in Large Societies

In this paper, we consider the effect of ambiguity on the private provision of public goods. Equilibrium is shown to exist and be unique. We examine how provision of the public good changes as the size of the population increases. We show that when there is uncertainty, there may be less free‐riding in large societies.     

Executive Careers and Compensation Surrounding Takeover Bids

This article examines the impact of a takeover bid on the careers and compensation of chief executives of target firms. We find that acquisition attempts occur more frequently in industries where chief executive officers (CEO) have positive abnormal compensation. Target CEOs are more likely to be replaced when a bid succeeds, than when it fails. CEOs of target firms who lose their jobs generally fail to find another senior executive position in any public corporation within three years after the bid. Consistent with Fama's (1980) notion of “ex post settling up”, postbid compensation changes of managers retained after an acquisition attempt are negatively related to several measures of their prebid abnormal compensation. This result is robust to a variety of specifications and does not seem to be caused by mean reversion or selection bias. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that a takeover bid generates additional information that is used by labor markets to discipline managers.