Should Intangibles Be Measured: What Are the Economic Trade‐Offs?

We investigate whether a firm's intangible investments should be measured and separated from operating expenses. We find that the information extracted from accounting reports of investments and earnings is different when intangibles are measured and identified separately from operating expenses than when intangibles are left commingled with operating expenses. This difference in the market's information causes a change in the behavior of market prices, inducing changes in the firm's investments and cash flows. Thus, from a real effects perspective, measuring intangibles is not unambiguously desirable. We identify the conditions under which providing information on intangibles may be desirable. This study also shows the inadequacy of statistical associations between accounting numbers and prices as a basis for evaluating the desirability of measuring intangible investments. We show that the measurement of intangibles alters the very distribution of cash flows about which the measurement regime is seeking to provide information.     

Longitudinal rank tests for detecting location shift in the distribution of abnormal returns: An extension*

Abstract. We extend Chandra and Rohrbach (1990) to explain how to develop a longitudinal rank test (r-test) analogous to any t-test used in the event study literature. We compare all analogous pairs using market model residuals. The r-test is more powerful than the t-test in each pair. This suggests that if the researcher intends to use any t-test then, for more power, the comparable test should be preferred. These results should be useful to the researcher in selecting an r-test for event study because now the same flexibility of choosing an r-test as a t-test is available. Résumé. Les auteurs poussent plus loin les travaux de Chandra et Rohrbach (1990) pour expliquer comment mettre au point un test de rangs logitudinaux (test r) analogue aux différents tests t utilisés dans les ouvrages portant sur l'étude d'événements. Ils comparent toutes les paires analogues en utilisant les résiduels des modèles de marché. Le test r est plus puissant que le test t dans chacune des paires, de sorte qu'on peut penser que si le chercheur prévoit utiliser un test t pour sa puissance, il aurait avantage à recourir au test r comparable. Ces résultats devraient être utiles aux chercheurs dans la sélection d'un test r pour l'étude d'événements puisque, dorénavant, le choix d'un test r peut offrir la même souplesse que celui d'un test t     

A synthesis of alternative testing procedures for event studies*

Abstract. The alternative versions of the t-test found in event studies result from different weighting schemes for abnormal returns, different abnormal return models, and different correlational structures among abnormal returns. In the presence of dependencies among abnormal returns, the generalized least squares t-tests are much more sensitive to the mis-specifications in the abnormal return model than are the nongeneralized t-tests. Therefore, when analyzing contemporaneous returns, particularly with samples exhibiting a large industry concentration, a nongeneralized t-test should be preferred to a generalized least squares t-test because of the dependencies that may exist. Because the generalized least squares t-tests are highly sensitive to errors in specifying an appropriate abnormal return model, a portfolio time-series ordinary least squares regression should be preferred to a generalized least squares regression even when the variance or covariance matrix of abnormal returns can be estimated with a high degree of reliability. In testing for the mean effects, the concern for event period variance increases seems to be unwarranted, and the variance estimators using event period data are inefficient and biased. The issue is not whether variance increases in an event period, but which variance is to be used: that of the event period or of the nonevent period? Answers to such questions are presented in this paper. Résumé. Les différentes versions possibles du test t que l'on trouve dans les études d'événements résultent de différents systèmes de pondération des rendements anormaux, de différents modèles de rendements anormaux et de différentes structures de corrélation des rendements anormaux. Lorsqu'il existe une dépendance entre les rendements anormaux, les tests t généralisés des moindres carrés sont beaucoup plus sensibles aux défauts de construction du modèle des rendements anormaux que ne le sont les tests t non généralisés. C'est pourquoi lorsqu'on analyse des rendements simultanés, en particulier si l'échantillon présente une forte concentration industrielle, le test t non généralisé est préférable au test t généralisé des moindres carrés, compte tenu des dépendances qui peuvent exister. Les tests t généralisés des moindres carrés étant très sensibles aux défauts de construction du modèle approprié de rendements anormaux, l'application de la méthode classique des moindres carrés à une série chronologique relative à un portefeuille est préférable à la régression généralisée des moindres carrés, même s'il est possible d'estimer avec un degré élevé de fiabilité la matrice de variance ou de covariance des rendements anormaux. Dans le test des effets moyens, la préoccupation relative aux augmentations de la variance de la période d'événements semble être injustifiée, et les estimateurs de la variance fondés sur les données de la période d'événements sont inefficients et biaisés. Il ne s'agit pas de déterminer si la variance augmente pendant la période d'événements, mais quelle variance doit être utilisée: celle de la période d'événements ou une autre. Les auteurs répondent à ces questions.     

TARGETED ADVERTISING: THE ROLE OF SUBSCRIBER CHARACTERISTICS IN MEDIA MARKETS*

This paper seeks to establish the importance of targeted advertising in media markets. Using zip‐code level circulation for U.S. newspapers, I show that newspapers facing more competition have lower circulation prices but higher advertising prices than similar newspapers facing little or no competition. I explain this by showing that newspapers in more competitive markets are better able to segment readers according to their location and demographics. This leads to greater homogeneity in the characteristics of subscribers and raises advertisers' willingness to pay for such readers. The results imply a substantial benefit to advertisers and media firms from targeted advertising.     

Assessing the Information Content of Mark-to-Market Accounting with Mixed Attributes: The Case of Cash Flow Hedges

We examine how outsiders rationally interpret a reported loss on derivatives when the application of mark‐to‐market accounting to cash flow hedges creates a mixed attribute problem. We find that because of the mixed attribute problem, the information content of mark‐to‐market accounting is related to the information content of historical cost accounting in a very specific way. This relationship allows us to identify the circumstances under which mark‐to‐market accounting facilitates and when it detracts from the objective of providing an early warning of potential financial distress. We show that the reporting of an impending derivative loss by a distressed firm can actually lead outsiders to infer that the firm is in a better financial position than what they would have inferred under the silence associated with historical cost accounting. Without the mixed attribute problem, mark‐to‐market accounting would always yield more accurate assessments of the firm's financial position.     

Imprecision in Accounting Measurement: Can It Be Value Enhancing?

Accounting measurements of firms' investments are usually imprecise. We study the economic consequences of such imprecision when it interacts with information asymmetry regarding an investment project's ex ante profitability, known only by the firm's managers. Absent agency and risk‐sharing considerations, we find that some degree of accounting imprecision could actually be value enhancing. We characterize the optimal degree of imprecision and identify its key determinants. The greater the information asymmetry regarding the project's profitability, the greater is the imprecision that should be tolerated in the measurement of the firm's investment.     

The Lags of Monetary Policy

The length of the transmission lags from monetary pblicy to output has been the subject of much research over the years, but there are serious problems in isolating the lags with any precision. This paper uses a simple model of Australian output to estimate the length of the lags, and then examines how attempts to grapple with the estimation problems might change the results.
We estimate that output growth falls by about one-third of one per cent in both the first and second years after a one percentage point rise in the short-term real interest rate, and by about one-sixth of one per cent in the third year. This implies an average lag of about five or six quarters in monetary policy's impact on output growth. Each of these estimates is, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications for policy of these relatively long and uncertain lags. Finally, we find no evidence that the average lag from monetary policy to output growth has become any shorter in the 1990s.     

The Use of Trade Association Disclosures by Investors and Analysts: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry*

This paper investigates the relation between industry-wide information disclosures by the trade association for the semiconductor industry and both share prices and analyst forecasts. Such disclosures may have little impact on investors and analysts, since prior theoretical research suggests that trade associations may be unable to secure reliable data from firms in an industry. At the same time, such disclosures may be important, since prior empirical research suggests that share prices and analyst forecasts reflect industry-wide earnings effects earlier than firm-specific effects. We document significant stock price movements on release dates of industry Flash Reports by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) each month that contain aggregate industry data on new orders and shipments. The magnitude of the price revisions on Flash Report disclosure dates is positively associated with changes in the numbers disclosed and varies across sample firms in a manner associated with identifiable characteristics of the firms. Further tests indicate that the Flash Report provides mainly forward-looking information on new orders that is linked to firm-specific sales changes and has explanatory power for quarterly stock prices beyond firm-specific earnings. This information is used by security analysts mainly in assessing the persistence of firm-specific quarterly sales changes. Our findings support the hypothesis that the SIA is able to obtain data from firms, compile it into reliable aggregate statistics, and then distribute these statistics in a timely fashion.