THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTS

Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re‐establishment of the raison d’être of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non‐fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time.     

The two‐way interaction between globalization and labour market policies

Labour market and social policies both affect and are affected by the process of trade liberalization and globalization. This two‐way interaction and the feedback effects are the focus of this paper. The analysis is mainly conceptual—but examples are illustrated throughout, based mainly in the context of labour markets in North America, Latin America and the Caribbean basin. Attention is paid to outlining the mechanisms whereby globalization and trade liberalization affect labour market and social policy initiatives, and the extent to which these pressures will lead to a harmonization of legislative and policy initiatives, and if that harmonization will necessarily be downward to the lowest common denominator. The paper concludes that: (1) the pressures will lead towards policy harmonization; (2) the harmonization generally will be downwards; (3) such harmonization is not always negative as generally perceived; (4) efficient regulatory and social policy initiatives will survive and indeed expand, with the “rent‐protecting” ones under most pressure to dissipate; and (5) pure distributional or equity‐oriented initiatives that have no positive feedback effect on efficiency, unfortunately, will also be under jeopardy to dissipate, and this is a serious policy concern. Alternatives for addressing this concern are discussed, as are their associated problems.     

Relevance and advantages of using the item response theory

The item response theory (IRT) also known as latent trait theory, is used for the development, evaluation and administration of standardized measurements; it is widely used in the areas of psychology and education. This theory was developed and expanded for over 50 years and has contributed to the development of measurement scales of latent traits. This paper presents the basic and fundamental concepts of this IRT and a practical example of the construction of scales is proposed to illustrate the feasibility, advantages and validity of IRT through a known measurement, the height. The results obtained with the practical application of IRT confirm its effectiveness in the evaluation of latent traits.     

Accounting and slavery: the accounts of the English South Sea Company, 1713-22

The Asiento was an agreement between the Crowns of England and Spain of tremendous economic and political consequences. In spite of its importance, very little is known about the accounting practices of the Asiento. This paper demonstrates that the developments of the Asiento were very much linked to the lack of accountability of the South Sea Company (SSC) before the Spanish Crown and describes the characteristics of the accounting system used by the SSC to provide information on its developed economic activity. It also discusses the role of accounting in the resolution of conflicts between the tenants of the Asiento, the SSC and its Spanish counterparts.     

The Effect of EMU on Tourism*

This paper estimates the effect of the euro on intra‐EMU tourist flows by using a panel dataset of 20 OECD countries over the period 1995–2002. The results reveal that the euro has increased tourism, with an effect of around 6.5%. This is a noticeable impact given the early stage of the EMU analyzed. The robustness checks show that the evidence of a positive impact is quite widespread across EMU destination countries.     

The importance of firms in wage determination

Firms are central to many theories of the labor market. However, the actual degree to which firms shape the structure of wages is still not well understood. This paper investigates (i) the importance of firms in explaining wage differences across individuals and industries, and (ii) how the nature of interfirm mobility – job-to-job vs. job-unemployment-job – affects the relative importance of firms and workers in wage determination. Results indicate that (i) firms are much more important in explaining the variance of average wages across industries rather than across individuals, and (ii) using job-to-job transitions to identify the firm's contribution to the wage rate reduces the importance of firm wage policies in explaining wage differences by as much as 50%.     

Entrepreneurial Structure Qualitative Analysis: The Case of Seville (Spain)

In the field of territorial economic growth, it is possible to identify important characteristics in the entrepreneurial structure, such as the structure of the size of firms, main activity sectors, or the degree of innovation. However, other lesser known characteristics are important also, such as functional dependency, which considers the relationship between small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and suppliers and clients belonging to any territorial field or productive dependency, which considers the level of concentration in terms of buying and selling in connection with the main suppliers and clients, respectively. In order to empirically contrast the importance of these entrepreneurial characteristics and try to relate them with territorial economic growth, a sample of 400 enterprises in the province of Seville (Spain) is used.      

Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term,non-linear orientation on PPP

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon regressions show that investor sentiment is connected with exchange rate returns at longer horizons, i.e. more than two years. Second, sentiment is cointegrated with fundamentals, whereas third, this relation becomes stronger, the larger exchange rate's misalignment from long-run PPP. In sum, investor sentiment's behavior in the US-dollar market closely matches with established facts of empirical exchange rate research.