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41.
Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows: What Can We Learn from Micro‐level Analysis?
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Ralf A. Wilke 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2018,80(4):822-842
Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision‐making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual‐level statistical analysis to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual‐level statistical duration analysis constitutes an interesting alternative to aggregate data‐based forecasting. In particular, forecasts of up to six months ahead are surprisingly precise and are found to be more precise than considered time series forecasts. 相似文献
42.
Tulin Dzhengiz Ralf Barkemeyer Giulio Napolitano 《Business Strategy and the Environment》2021,30(5):2468-2488
Drawing on the literature on framing, we explore the emotional framing differences in radical and reformative NGOs over time. We analyse the sentiment of a sample of 5880 press releases issued by five NGOs positioned differently on the reformative-radical spectrum and examine how they address large companies. Our findings reveal an increasing polarisation of sentiment in these NGOs' framing, with individual NGOs gravitating towards ideal-type radical or reformative positions, respectively. In alignment with the differences in their framing, we observe differences in their approaches to cross-sector partnerships. Policymakers need to note the implications of the observed polarisation for the effectiveness and credibility of cross-sector partnerships and multi-stakeholder initiatives more generally, given the risk of co-optation (for reformative NGOs) as well as the risk of foregoing significant funding and governance opportunities (for radical NGOs). 相似文献
43.
We empirically analyze the influence of inflationary pressure originating from persistent national misalignments on the ECB’s interest rate decisions between 2000 and mid-2010. To do so, we introduce an indicator that summarizes the threat to euro area price stability originating from self-reinforcing expected inflation differentials. The indicator is computed based on persistent deviations of national expected inflation and GDP growth rates from the corresponding euro area aggregate. It thereby captures area-wide excess demand pressure on the euro area inflation rate. In order to determine the information content of this indicator, we add it to an empirical monetary policy reaction function. We then analyze this reaction function in the framework of a generalized ordered choice model that fits the data a lot better than its commonly used, more restricted counterpart. Within this empirical framework, we find that after controlling for several area-wide aggregates, national information does not provide additional information that is indicative of the ECB’s policy rate decision. 相似文献
44.
Arzu Ozsozgun Caliskan Emel Esen Ralf Barkemeyer 《Business ethics (Oxford, England)》2021,30(4):485-506
In this study, we construct a classificatory scheme of impression management tactics and apply it to a sample of sustainability report and annual report CEO statements issued by large Turkish companies. We find a wide range of impression management tactics applied in both types of CEO statements. However, impression management in sustainability report CEO statements emerges as more limited and uniform, revealing clearer prioritizations of impression management tactics when compared to annual report CEO statements. Sustainability report CEO statements emphasize tactics that allow the company to highlight carefully selected, isolated aspects of their sustainability engagement. At the same time, they rarely employ tactics that are geared towards more systematic (quantitative) performance evaluation. We attribute these differences to the way in which corporate sustainability performance is commonly conceptualized and evaluated, emphasising qualitative performance dimensions rather than the reporting of quantitative performance metrics. This results in the application of a different impression management tactics mix and limits the usefulness of sustainability reports as an accountability mechanism when compared to corporate annual reports. In addition, we provide tentative evidence for the context-specific nature of impression management, with the choice of impression management tactics reflecting the institutional environment a company is based in. 相似文献
45.
Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts. 相似文献
46.
Previous studies have examined causality within and between different spot and futures markets with a motivation to discover market comovements, price leadership effects, and, more recently, volatility spillovers across markets. However, the empirical framework within which this is accomplished tends not to analyze explicitly foreign spillover effects upon a spot–futures relationship, which may significantly alter the equilibrium between these markets. This will then have a direct impact upon the estimation of dynamic risk adjustments that occur from the interaction between these markets. This article develops a quadvariate simultaneous-equation EC-ARCH model with an emphasis on volatility spillovers as a better alternative methodology to evaluate these relationships from a different perspective. This model is applied to examine the interaction between the Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets, which allows for an Australian or Japanese futures trader to analyze the impact of foreign cash and futures markets, as well as the local cash market, on the local futures market in a single coherent framework. This type of analysis is not possible using previous paradigms, because they allow the trader only to examine the impact of local cash and foreign futures markets in separate settings. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 523–540, 1999 相似文献
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Ralf Boscheck Judith C. Clifton Daniel Díaz-Fuentes Mark Oelmann Christoph Czichy Monica Alessi Sébastien Treyer Janet Wright Martin Cave 《Intereconomics》2013,48(3):136-158
The European Commission’s proposal for a Directive on the award of concession contracts has sparked vigorous public debate and intense opposition. This Directive is controversial because of the nature of the policy it proposes and because the sectors involved are highly sensitive. This Forum examines the weaknesses of the Commission’s proposal and presents an overview of the current issues in water regulation and the provision of water services. The authors analyse the regulation of natural monopolies, water efficiency and upstream competition in the water industry. 相似文献
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