The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients

The US housing market has experienced significant cyclical volatility over the last twenty-five years due to major structural changes and economic fluctuations. In addition, the housing market is generally considered to be weak form inefficient. Houses are relatively illiquid, exceptionally heterogeneous, and are associated with large transactions costs. As such, past research has shown that it is possible to predict, at least partially, the time path of housing prices. The ability to predict housing prices is important such that investors can make better asset allocation decisions, including the pricing and underwriting of mortgages. Most of the prior studies examining the US housing market have employed constant coefficient approaches to forecast house price movements. However, this approach is not optimal as an examination of data reveals substantial sub-sample parameter instability. To account for the parameter instability, we employ alternative estimation methodologies where the estimated parameters are allowed to vary over time. The results provide strong empirical evidence in favor of utilizing the rolling Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) Model and the Kalman Filter with an Autoregressive Presentation (KAR) for the parameters time variation. Lastly, we provide out-of-sample forecasts and demonstrate the precision of our approach.     

Activities,experiences, and environmental settings: A case study of recreation opportunity spectrum relationships

Abstract

One tenet of the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) is that relationships exist between outdoor recreation activity styles, desired psychological experiences, and preferred environmental settings. The purpose of this study is to examine the nature and complexity of these relationships in light of the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum conceptual model with a group of diverse outdoor recreationists. Psychometric measures were utilized to assess the desired experiences and environmental preferences of four activity preference groups. The results indicated that significant relationships do exist between the study variables. However, systematic explanations for these relationships were not clearly apparent from the results of this particular study. The existing theoretical and empirical literature base is inadequate to accurately articulate the systematic linkages between these three concepts. Further development and refinement of these relations will occur only incrementally as a growing empirical base allows for theory construction.     

Logistics Information System Evaluation: Assessing External Technology Integration and Supporting Organizational Learning

Firms often outsource the development and acquisition of logistics information systems (LIS) needed to improve logistics processes. Managers tasked with such outsourcing decisions often struggle to understand and balance the external technology's impact on existing logistics processes, individual stakeholders, firm strategies, and the financial and operational performance of the firm. Unfortunately, research is limited on (1) methods for evaluating the performance capabilities of systems from external sources prior to full implementation, and (2) the impact of external technology integration (ETI) on organizational behavior and learning related to a firm's logistics processes. Through the lens of organizational learning (OL) theory, this research uses a case study approach to examine the transportation division of a major U.S.‐based fuel retailer to gain insights on the management control of ETI efforts. The study builds theory to fill important literature gaps then develops a conceptual framework and supporting propositions to inform future research on logistics ETI. The findings highlight important OL implications for firms involved in ETI efforts and also provide a practically relevant management control tool that can be used by logistics practitioners.     

Firm Resources and Host‐Country Factors Impacting Internationalization of Knowledge‐Intensive Service Firms

In the era of the global economy, knowledge‐based services are becoming important sectors of the service industry. Services offered by a university are knowledge‐based services. Universities are in the service business, and they play a key role in creating and disseminating knowledge through teaching, research, and related services that cross domestic borders. The current research focuses on the internationalization of US MBA programs. The internationalization of US MBA programs refers to the delivery of knowledge‐based services beyond the domestic borders. The main objective of our research is to examine the effect of an organization's (e.g., a US business school) resources and a host country's attractiveness on the internationalization of knowledge‐based services offered by a firm (a US business school). Using data gathered from MBA programs of US colleges and universities, theÊstudy findings show that internationalization is influenced by human capital, prestige and reputation, management's willingness, and foreign market attractiveness. The results of this study offer practical insights for US business school leaders. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The under-reported impact of age discrimination and its threat to business vitality

The Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA, 29 USCA, 621) is credited with helping eliminate many blatant forms of age discrimination in employment. For example, before the ADEA was enacted 37 years ago, it was common for employment ads to list age limitations, indicating people over 40 need not apply. Across the board, mandatory retirement policies went unchallenged. Despite advancements in these areas since the founding of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, it remains to be seen whether the ADEA has completed the job it set out to do. Has it proven to be an effective tool for eliminating the unreasonable prejudices that make it difficult for older workers to achieve their full potential? Has it provided adequate compensation for victims of discrimination? The following article takes a snapshot of the current work environment to gain a perspective. Based on extensive interviews with academics, employment lawyers, advocates for older workers, and older workers themselves, it reveals the need for reforms. It finds that, in a legal environment slanted toward employers, older workers continue to face bias and stereotyping, that most victims of discrimination are not made whole, and that society's lack of concern for this type of discrimination may prove more costly in the future as employers look more to older workers to fill projected workforce gaps.     

The transfer of training: what really matters

Although organizations invest billions of dollars in training every year, many trained competencies reportedly fail to transfer to the workplace. Researchers have long examined the ‘transfer problem’, uncovering a wealth of information regarding the transfer of training. Inconsistencies remain, however, and organizations may find it difficult to pinpoint exactly which factors are most critical. Using Baldwin and Ford's model of transfer, we identify the factors relating to trainee characteristics (cognitive ability, self‐efficacy, motivation, perceived utility of training), training design (behavioral modeling, error management, realistic training environments) and the work environment (transfer climate, support, opportunity to perform, follow‐up) that have exhibited the strongest, most consistent relationships with the transfer of training. We describe our reasoning for extracting such variables from the literature and conclude by discussing potential implications for practice and future research.