EVALUATING SOCIAL POLICIES: PRINCIPLES AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

Invariably, studies, proposals, and plans for social programscontain a strong recommendation for evaluation and monitoring.Reliable information about what works and why is clearly vitalfor improving existing programs or designing future ones. Makingsuch assessments requires effective methods of evaluation. Policymakerswho use these evaluations need to know about the methods—the pitfalls to watch for and the relative advantages and disadvantagesof different techniques in different situations. This articledescribes these evaluation methods and the experience accumulatedin the United States in applying them in practice.      

The value of information in a principal-agent model with moral hazard: The ex post contracting case

In a principal-agent model with moral hazard, a signal about the principal?s technology — the stochastic mapping from the agent?s action to the outcome — is observed before the contract is offered. The signal is either uninformative (null information), informative and observed only by the principal (private information), or also observed by the agent (public information). We show that, from an ex ante standpoint (before the signal is observed): (i) the agent prefers private to both null and public information; (ii) the principal sometimes prefers null to both private and public information; and (iii) when the principal prefers public to null information, she prefers public to private information, whereas the agent prefers private to public information. In this last situation, we also show that (iv) for any separating equilibrium with private information, there exists a contract with public information that both strictly prefer.     

A Dynamic Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance

Prior research suggests that neither the choice to own life insurance nor the amount purchased is consistently related to the presence of children in the household. While these perplexing findings are based on a static framework, we alternatively examine life insurance demand in a dynamic framework as a function of changes in household life cycle and financial condition. Our results indicate both a statistically and economically significant relation between life events, such as new parenthood, and the demand for life insurance. We also provide new evidence in support of the emergency fund hypothesis: households in which either spouse has become unemployed are more likely than other households to surrender their whole life insurance.     

Financial clusters,industry groups,and stock return correlations

Industry classifications are used by investors, economists, and policy makers for a great variety of purposes. The traditional economic‐activity‐based systems (Global Industry Classification Standard, North American Industry Classification System, Standard Industrial Classification, and Fama–French) have been supplemented in recent years by alternative classification systems. Our purpose is to provide another alternative system that forms classification groups based on the structure of firm financial statements. Using cluster analysis, a multivariate tool that forms groups where their characteristics are similar within groups and distinct across groups, we form clusters of large U.S. firms based on their common‐size financial statements (percentage breakdowns of balance sheets and income statements). We characterize the financial clusters based on their industry classifications and other economic information and assess the ability of financial clusters and industry groups, separately and jointly, to explain stock return correlations of all pairs of firms. Our results demonstrate that using financial clusters and industry groups together proves advantageous relative to using either alone.     

Parallel imports and price controls

Price controls create opportunities for international arbitrage. Many have argued that such arbitrage, if tolerated, will undermine intellectual property rights and dull the incentives for investment in research‐intensive industries such as pharmaceuticals. We challenge this orthodox view and show, to the contrary, that the pace of innovation often is faster in a world with international exhaustion of intellectual property rights than in one with national exhaustion. The key to our conclusion is to recognize that governments will make different choices of price controls when parallel imports are allowed by their trade partners than they will when they are not.     

Effect of Stress on Later-Life Health: Evidence from the Vietnam War Draft

This article contributes to the literature examining how stress during the early stages of life impacts later-life health using a novel proxy for stress: risk of military induction during the Vietnam War. The article estimates that an increase in induction risk in young adulthood is associated with higher rates of obesity, endocrine disease, and hypertension later in life. These findings do not appear to be cohort effects; these associations exist only for men who did not serve in the war, not for same-aged women. These results suggest stress experienced during early adulthood can have adverse health consequences later in life.     

Leadership and group size: An experiment

Our experimental results suggest that the effectiveness of leading by example decreases with group size. The discrepancy between the leaders' and followers' incentives increases with group size. Thus, as group size increases, followers more often refuse to follow their leaders.     

Sampling Minority Business Owners and Their Families: The Understudied Entrepreneurial Experience*

We here review and critique prior research on minority entrepreneurship, paying particular attention to the contributions and limitations of deployed sampling techniques and research methodologies. As based on this review, we then introduce the 2003 and 2005 National Minority Business Owner Surveys—a comprehensive and primary data collection effort that used varied methodologies to secure in‐depth information about random national samples of African American, Korean American, and Mexican American populations as well as a comparison sample of nonminority business owners. We present the initial business ownership profiles developed with these recent data, in part, as a benchmark of the U.S. entrepreneurial experience, and compare the profiles with those presented in prior research. These profiles document similarities and differences across the four groups and provide an empirical foundation for understanding the origin of those similarities and differences. No longer can we ignore the in‐depth study of minority businesses and their owning families nor can we simply assume that all businesses are the same, regardless of minority status or ethnicity.