The Motor Industry in an Enlarged EU

The motor industry in the ‘First Fifteen’ EU makes an enormous contribution to its economic prosperity. This is manifest in the scale of employment, output, investment, international trade and technological change. The enlargement of the EU will see the full integration of the auto sector in the accession countries with the activities in the West to reinforce its already massive scale. The nature of optimum size and the importance of economies of scale creates a bias to bigness in vehicle manufacture. Hence, the auto industry in the accession countries consists largely of the local operations of transnational companies. As car demand is income elastic the level of sales in the accession countries is relatively small but as the economies expand the potential is enormous. This, together with non‐scaler advantages such as low wage rates, has attracted considerable investment by vehicle firms in the last fifteen years into the accession countries. Various tariff reduction agreements have meant that integration of the East Central European motor industry with Western operations has pre‐dated the current formal enlargement of the EU. The countries that have done particularly well in attracting automotive investment have been Poland, the Czech Republic and, particularly, Slovakia. The recent history of the auto sector in the accession countries has not been without its problems. The collapse of the command economies saw disruption in the market and the decline of the local indigenous car makers. Subsequently this was more than offset by new inward investment. There has been no revival of the local commercial vehicle industry and further restructuring can be expected. The long‐term survival of the auto component sector in the accession countries will depend on how the sector responds to the competitive challenges of free trade and enlargement. However, there are signs that significant high value‐added activities such as vehicle design and development, will be sustainable in East Central Europe. The motor industry in the accession countries will face its own challenges, not least the tendency of the industry to anticipate formal integration. This time it will mean expansion into Eastern Europe. Hence, whilst the location of vehicle plants in the accession countries challenges the traditional centres of manufacture in the West, including ‘the periphery’, in turn they must be alert to even newer competition elsewhere.     

Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters

In recent years there has been a growing literature which analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. This paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the Static and the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.     

Union Coverage Differentials. Some Estimates for Britain Using the New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset

This paper reports individual-level estimates of union/non-union wage differentials, using coverage information from the New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset. There are no existing panel estimates for the United Kingdom. Of a number of findings, the more important are (i) fixed-effects estimates are about one-half the equivalent cross-section estimates; (ii) the biggest differentials are for ‘company/district/local only’ agreements; and (iii) the differential is counter-cyclical. Also the effect of the 1979/82 recession was probably dampened by anti-union legislation, and the upward trend between 1975 and 1995 is due to the decentralization of collective pay bargaining.     

Nutrition Ad Claims and Disclosures: Interaction and Mediation Effects for Consumer Evaluations of the Brand and the Ad

The effects of ad disclosure information on evaluations of the brand, the advertisement, and purchase intentions are postulated to vary across different ad claim types. In addition, consumers' product health perceptions are hypothesized to mediate the effects of the disclosure information and ad claim type on brand and ad-related evaluations. Results from a between subjects' experiment show that the health perception measure mediates the effect of the disclosure on brand and ad evaluations, but the interaction between the ad claim type and the disclosure is not mediated by the inclusion in the model of consumers' product health perceptions.     

Differences between Black and White South Africans in product failure attributions,anger and complaint behaviour

The purpose of this research is to extend an understanding of how Black and White South African consumers’ causal attributions for major household appliance performance failures impact on their anger and subsequent complaint behaviour. A survey was administered to Black and White South African consumers who were dissatisfied with the performance of a major household appliance item. Respondents resided in a major metropolitan area. The findings showed that, compared to Whites, the Black South Africans felt a low but significantly higher external locus of causality and lower control, and experienced a higher level of anger regarding product failure. The level of anger determined the decision to take complaint action, but racial group determined the type of action taken. Blacks complained more actively to retailers and engaged more in private complaint action than Whites. These findings may show that Black South Africans are developing a more individualistic orientation as consumers. Therefore, researchers should consider the effect of cultural swapping when researching consumer behaviour in multicultural countries. Implications for retailers in terms of complaint handling are indicated.     

Error or absurdity? A non-cognitive approach to commodity fetishism

Abstract

Karl Marx presented his theory of commodity fetishism as an explanation of the mysterious appearance of social relations in a system of commodity production as natural phenomena. The standard interpretation of this as a failure to perceive capitalist social relations correctly depends on a particular modern sense of ‘natural’. If classical political economy and Marx used ‘natural’ in the Aristotelian sense, commodity fetishism appears quite differently: not as a cognitive error but rather as a manner of living under commodity production, one that is not wrong but absurd, the word fetishism tying commodity production to pre-Enlightenment, preliterate peoples.     

Analysing Deprivation and Local Authority Performance: The Implications for CPA

This article uses regression analysis to explore the statistical relationship between deprivation and the performance indicators used for the first round of Comprehensive Performance Assessments (CPAs) for English local authorities. The statistical significance of the results is described and analysed in light of the Audit Commission's decision to exclude deprivation from the CPA framework. For over one third of the PIs tested, deprivation had a statistically significant adverse effect on performance. The author shows that external environmental constraints on local authority performance must be recognized for accurate and equitable performance assessments.     

DURATION AND INTEREST RATE RISK FOR UNCERTAIN CASH FLOW STREAMS

This paper amends the Hicks-Macaulay-Samuelson duration analysis to allow for uncertainty in asset cash flows. An asset's duration measure then becomes a random variable which may possess no central moments. We show, however, that a transformed version of the duration measure is normally distributed. This can be used to make probability assessments of the sensitivity ofthe present value of an asset's cash flow stream to interest rate movements.     

The Good Governance Agenda: Beyond Indicators without Theory

Effective government matters, but what is it? Good governance indicators go some way to provide a definition, but how much do they say about what effectiveness is, why this is so, and how it matters to development? This article argues that much work on the good governance agenda suggests a one-best-way model, ostensibly of an idyllic, developed country government: Sweden or Denmark on a good day, perhaps. The implied model lacks consistency, however, seems inappropriate for use in the development dialogue and is not easily replicated. In short, it resembles a set of well meaning but problematic proverbs. The good governance picture of effective government is not only of limited use in development policy but also threatens to promote dangerous isomorphism, institutional dualism and “flailing states”. It imposes an inappropriate model of government that “kicks away the ladder” that today's effective governments climbed to reach their current states. The model's major weakness lies in the lack of an effective underlying theoretical framework to assist in understanding government roles and structures in development. A framework is needed before we measure government effectiveness or propose specific models of what government should look like. Given the evidence of multiple states of development, the idea of a one-best-way model actually seems very problematic.     

Chinese Competition and Brazilian Exports of Manufactures

In recent years concerns have been raised over the impact of Chinese competition on Latin American exports, particularly those from Mexico. This article shows that Brazilian manufactured exports too have been negatively affected, and that this has been reflected in the “primarization” of Brazilian exports and a declining share in the import markets of its major customers. A variety of different indicators were used to analyse the extent to which Brazilian exports have faced competition from China. Constant Market Share analysis was then applied to estimate the quantitative significance of Chinese competition for Brazilian exports. This shows that Brazil has lost markets to China in the USA, in the EU and in its major Latin American markets, particularly since 2004. This has occurred not only in low-technology products but also increasingly in high-technology products, and Brazil has not been able to compensate for losses to China through increasing exports of more sophisticated products. It was also found that Chinese competition intensified in the Latin American market following the global financial crisis.