The Friedman rule and inflation targeting

We use concepts from the financial economics discipline – and in particular the methods of continuous time finance – to develop a monetarist model under which the rate of inflation evolves in terms of a first-order mean reversion process based on a ‘white noise’ error structure. The Fokker–Planck (i.e. the Chapman–Kolmogorov) equation is then invoked to retrieve the steady-state (i.e. unconditional) probability distribution for the rate of inflation. Monthly data for the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) covering the period from 1988 until 2012 are then used to estimate the parameters of the probability distribution for the UK inflation rate. The parameter estimates are compatible with the hypothesis that the UK inflation rate evolves in terms of a slightly skewed and highly leptokurtic probability distribution that encompasses non-convergent higher moments. We then determine the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman fundamental equation of optimality corresponding to a monetary policy loss function defined in terms of the squared difference between the targeted rate of inflation and the actual inflation rate. Optimising and then solving the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation shows that the optimal control for the rate of increase in the money supply will be a linear function of the difference between the current rate of inflation and the targeted inflation rate. The conditions under which the optimal control will lead to the Friedman rule are then determined. These conditions are used in conjunction with the Fokker–Planck equation and the mean reversion process describing the evolution of the inflation rate to determine the probability distribution for the inflation rate under the Friedman rule. This shows that whilst the empirically determined probability distribution for the UK inflation rate meets some of the conditions required for the application of the Friedman rule, it does not meet them all.     

Does austerity drive public service innovation? Evidence from shared senior management teams in local government

Shared senior management teams are a recent and radical response to financial austerity. They aim to improve the efficiency of public services without the disruption, controversy and transaction costs associated with full-blown organizational mergers. This paper assesses the adoption of this management innovation by English district councils, identifies enablers and barriers to its effective implementation, offers a preliminary assessment of its impacts, and draws out practical lessons for policy-makers.     

Public Management Reforms and Social Cohesion in Europe: The view from the top

Drawing upon data from a survey of senior public managers in ten European countries, we examine the relationship between public management reforms and perceptions of social cohesion. We find a positive connection between reforms which treat service users as customers and government openness (outward-downward reforms), and managers’ perceptions of the civic culture and social solidarity within their countries. However, for reforms, such as privatization, with an outward-upward orientation, a negative association with social solidarity is observed. The theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

Testing For Efficient Contracts In Unionized Labour Markets

This paper addresses the design of empirical tests to distinguish between two competing explanations of wage and employment determination in unionized labour markets, the labour-demand and efficient-contract models. We argue that most of the tests employed are restrictive, propose an alternative non-nested approach, a central feature of which is the variation in the set of instrumental variables across the models, and provide an illustration of how it might be implemented, using data from the Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (WIRS) 1984 Panel File. The results demonstrate how the traditional approach can lead to inappropriate conclusions, and thereby emphasize the empirical importance of the specification of the instrumental variables.     

The Paper River Revisited: A Common Property Externality Exercise

The author describes a modified version of the Paper River exercise that appeared in this journal in the Spring 1999 issue. The original game was designed to illustrate the application of the Coase theorem for solving an externality problem. In the Paper River, pairs of students share a single productive resource: small pieces of paper. At question is who has the rights to the paper. The author presents a modified version of the game that retains many of the same elements from the original, but the students work in groups rather than in pairs. Doing so increases the transaction costs associated with negotiating a solution. In addition, the productive resource is common property, so property rights are difficult to establish. These difficulties make a Coasian solution more difficult but make the simulation more realistic.     

Keynes,Ricardo and the classical theory of interest

Keynes made harsh and repeated attacks on the work of Ricardo, blaming him particulary for what Keynes called the ‘classical theory’ of interest. Garegnani and others argue that Keynes' criticisms of the classical theory of interest apply to later neoclassical writers, but not to Ricardo. This paper re-examines Keynes' criticisms. It argues that Keynes attacked Ricardoapos;s theory of interest despite his awareness that Ricardo did not hold the ‘classical theory’. Moreover, Keynes not only expressed sympathy for Ricardo's understanding of interest, but his criticisms which do apply to Ricardo do not address Ricardo's theory of interest.     

数字技术如何重新塑造广告业

看一下过去50年广告的黄金时期,Cary Grant(加里·格兰特)也是当时广告界的红人,有一部非常有意思的广告MADMAN,它是宣传了广告业,告诉人们广告业是什么,这是当时非常红的广告,那时候航空公司生意不是非常好,他们就寻求打广告,就发现航空公司和客户沟通不是非常好,就建议把航空公司的飞机都刷成红色。     

Food Stamp Program Participation and Food Insecurity: An Instrumental Variables Approach

The relationship between Food Stamp Program (FSP) participation and household food insecurity (FI) is investigated using data from the 1996–1997 National Food Stamp Program Survey. Endogeneity of FSP participation is accommodated with an instrumental variables approach. In contrast to other findings reported in the literature, results suggest participation in the FSP reduces the severity of FI. Sociodemographic variables play important roles in FSP participation and FI. Underreporting of FSP participation and limited observations of food-insecure households in previous studies may have also been factors.     

The estimation of union wage differentials and the impact of methodological choices

This paper demonstrates that methodological differences can matter a lot in the estimation of union/non-union wage differentials. Using individual-level data from the 1991 Wave of the British Household Panel Survey and a model evolved from replicating six existing British studies, we find that the model specification adopted has an important impact on the estimated differential and that the choice of which group means to use when evaluating the mean differential in multi-equation models is of considerable importance. There are also important differences between membership and coverage differentials and the earnings measure used and sample selected also make a difference. However, apart from firm size, the contents of the control vector used is not found to be of great importance.