Modeling weekly Canary tomato exports

The European tomato market is characterized by a constant process of dynamic adjustment towards equilibrium. Furthermore, Canary Island tomato exports cause a high seasonal impact on market prices in the winter period. In these circumstances, an adequate distribution of weekly shipments throughout the year could contribute to maximize producers' profits. Moreover, Canary export levels show some degree of instability, clearly related to the changes in the EU trade rules and there is a long period, in the summer, without exports. The aim of this article is to analyze the long‐term movements and, particularly, the seasonal pattern of Canary Island tomato exports throughout the last two decades. To observe more clearly the exporter's decisions, weekly data have been used. The instabilities in the long‐term behavior of the series and the specific nature of the seasonal pattern should be taken into account, to capture the performance of exports accurately. Thus, this analysis is carried out using the structural approach to time series analysis, and the usefulness of spline functions as a tool capable of modeling seasonal variations for which the period does not remain the same over time is shown.     

Are there pecuniary compensations for working conditions?

In this paper we assess the relative contribution of working conditions to wage determination with an emphasis on differences along the earnings distribution. A survey of British employees in 2001 rich in questions regarding the job post enables us to separate the contribution of working conditions, job attributes and individual characteristics to the process of wage determination. Standard wage equations reveal that covariates such as having “repetitive job” and using generic skills such as “literacy” or “customer handling skills” are associated with significant premiums and penalties. Quantile regressions confirm the presence of penalties to poor working conditions, such as “working to tight deadlines”, that are significant in the middle section of the earnings distribution and robust to the inclusion of a wide range of controls for person, firm and other job characteristics. Counterfactual decompositions at quantiles show that, despite the apparent penalty, there are pecuniary compensations to poor working conditions around the first quartile and the median of the earnings distribution.     

Cross-Border Bank Acquisitions: Is there a Performance Effect?

This paper uses a unique database that includes deal and bank balance sheet information for 220 cross-border acquisitions between 1996 and 2003 to analyze the characteristics and performance effects of international takeovers on target banks. A discrete choice estimation shows that banks are more likely to get acquired in a cross-border deal if they are large, bad performers, in a small country, and when the banking sector is concentrated. Post-acquisition performance for target banks does not improve in the first 2 years relative to domestically-owned financial institutions. This result is explained by a decrease in the banks’ net interest margin in developed countries and an increase in overhead costs in emerging economies.     

Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts

Statistical post-processing techniques are now used widely for correcting systematic biases and errors in the calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method, which results in a predictive distribution that is given by a single parametric law, with parameters that depend on the ensemble members. This article assesses the merits of combining multiple EMOS models based on different parametric families. In four case studies with wind speed and precipitation forecasts from two ensemble prediction systems, we investigate the performances of state of the art forecast combination methods and propose a computationally efficient approach for determining linear pool combination weights. We study the performance of forecast combination compared to that of the theoretically superior but cumbersome estimation of a full mixture model, and assess which degree of flexibility of the forecast combination approach yields the best practical results for post-processing applications.     

Small Firms as International Players

In this paper, using aggregate data from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis, the author explores the strategies small U.S.-based foreign investing firms follow in their international activities. The aggregate study supports the findings of an earlier study of a few small firms with international activities. These firms have a lower-than-expected tendency to form minority-owned affiliates abroad. An analysis of the industries in which these small foreign investing firms operate supports the notion that these firms follow specific strategies uncovered in the small-scale study. Finally, the paper ties the findings to alliance strategies of small firms.     

Modelling satisfaction with ATMs: A cross-country comparison

The aim of this paper is to extend the work of Goode and Moutinho by applying their model to a different country, namely Hungary, and then comparing the results. The hypothesised model links overall satisfaction to seven explanatory variables (namely expectations, perceived risk, confidence, recommendations to others, level of charges, frequency of use and full use of services). This paper is divided into four parts, the first of which looks at the UK and Hungarian banking systems. The second section describes the methodology and data collection used in this study. The third section analyses the empirical results derived from applying the model and the final section discusses the results and managerial implications of the results obtained from this study.     

Implementability via protective equilibria

We present a notion of non-cooperative strategic equilibrium for games generated by social choice functions, and fully characterize the class of those functions which are directly implementable under this equilibrium concept. Correct preference revelation turns out to always be such an equilibrium for the games generated by this class of implementable functions.     

Financing Preferences of Spanish Firms: Evidence on the Pecking Order Theory

This paper analyses some of the empirical implications of the pecking order theory in the Spanish market using a panel data analysis of 1,566 firms over 1994–2000. The results show that the pecking order theory holds for most subsamples analyzed, particularly for the small and medium-sized enterprises and for the high-growth and highly leveraged companies. It is also shown that both the more and the less leveraged firms tend to converge towards more balanced capital structures. Finally, we observe that firms finance their funds flow deficits with long term debt.     

Mixture Models of Missing Data

This paper proposes a general framework for the analysis of survey data with missing observations. The approach presented here treats missing data as an unavoidable feature of any survey of the human population and aims at incorporating the unobserved part of the data into the analysis rather than trying to avoid it or make up for it. To handle coverage error and unit non-response, the true distribution is modeled as a mixture of an observable and of an unobservable component. Generally, for the unobserved component, its relative size (the no-observation rate) and its distribution are not known. It is assumed that the goal of the analysis is to assess the fit of a statistical model, and for this purpose the mixture index of fit is used. The mixture index of fit does not postulate that the statistical model of interest is able to account for the entire population rather, that it may only describe a fraction of it. This leads to another mixture representation of the true distribution, with one component from the statistical model of interest and another unrestricted one. Inference with respect to the fit of the model, with missing data taken into account, is obtained by equating these two mixtures and asking, for different no-observation rates, what is the largest fraction of the population where the statistical model may hold. A statistical model is deemed relevant for the population, if it may account for a large enough fraction of the population, assuming the true (if known) or a sufficiently small or a realistic no-observation rate.