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911.
The conjunctures in question are the approach of a new millennium and the likely sag of the economy into a long-wave (Kondratiev) trough as that millennium arrives. Will there be yet another wave of apocalyptic expectation? An answer is sought in the nature and extent of American prophecy belief and in historic associations between millennial surges and long-wave troughs. 相似文献
912.
Robert A. J. Dur 《Scottish journal of political economy》2001,48(5):517-531
This paper examines unemployment, wages, and voters' demand for redistribution policy under three different labour market structures: laissez–faire, wage–setting by company or industrial unions, and wage–setting by a central union. Decisions on the level of taxes and benefits are made by majority rule. Taxes, wages, and unemployment are lowest under competitive wage–setting and highest with decentralised unions. A higher degree of centralisation of union wage–setting implies lower unemployment and taxes because a fiscal externality is internalised. Under some conditions about the composition of the population, the political–economic equilibrium can further be improved upon by cooperation between the government and the central union. This seems to have happened in the Netherlands where the unions and the government agreed to cut taxes and restrain wages, which has led to the 'Dutch Miracle'. 相似文献
913.
S. J. Tol Richard 《Environmental and Resource Economics》1995,5(4):353-374
It is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient. What is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals. Although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals, this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion. After briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs, region-specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate. Furthermore, cost functions are assumed to be quadratic, as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions. Results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy modelFUND are presented. Next, uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated. It is shown that because of convex loss functions and right-skewed uncertainties, the risk premium is substantial, calling for more action than analysis based on best-guess estimates. The final section explores some needs for further scientific research. 相似文献
914.
Daniel Friedman Kai Pommerenke Rajan Lukose Garrett Milam Bernardo A. Huberman 《Experimental Economics》2007,10(1):79-104
We seek to isolate in the laboratory factors that encourage and discourage the sunk cost fallacy. Subjects play a computer
game in which they decide whether to keep digging for treasure on an island or to sink a cost (which will turn out to be either
high or low) to move to another island. The research hypothesis is that subjects will stay longer on islands that were more
costly to find. Eleven treatment variables are considered, e.g. alternative visual displays, whether the treasure value of
an island is shown on arrival or discovered by trial and error, and alternative parameters for sunk costs. The data reveal
a surprisingly small sunk cost effect that is generally insensitive to the proposed psychological drivers.
Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at .
Jel Classification C91, D11 相似文献
915.
Alexandre M. Baptista 《Economic Theory》2007,31(2):205-212
In a seminal paper, Ross (Q J Econ 90:75–89, 1976) shows that if security markets are resolving, then there exist (non-redundant)
options that generate complete security markets. Complementing his work, Aliprantis and Tourky (2002) show that if security
markets are strongly resolving and the number of primitive securities is less than half the number of states, then every option is non-redundant. Our paper extends Aliprantis and Tourky’s result to the case when
their condition on the number of primitive securities is not imposed. Specifically, we show that if there exists no binary
payoff vector in the asset span, then for each portfolio there exists a set of exercise prices of full measure such that any
option on the portfolio with an exercise price in this set is non-redundant. Since the condition that there exists no binary
payoff vector in the asset span holds generically, redundant options are thus rare.
I am grateful to an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. Research support from the School of Business at The George
Washington University is gratefully acknowledged 相似文献
916.
In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the project. Models based on general relationships between environmental factors and biodiversity loss were combined with socio-economic, land-use and environmental models to derive data that were integrated into an interactive tool for policy makers. The biodiversity analysis takes into account the effects of land-use change, climate change, fragmentation by major roads, area of unfragmented patches, nitrogen deposition, forestry and disturbance. Results show that biodiversity is projected to decrease between now and 2030 in most countries for all scenarios, indicating that it is unlikely that the EU will be able to fulfill its commitment to stop biodiversity loss by 2010. This is mainly due to urbanization and increase in stress factors, and outweighs the area increase of nature arising from land abandonment. Merits, limitations and uncertainties of this approach to biodiversity assessment are discussed. 相似文献
917.
This article shows that the effect on investment of the introduction of uncertainty about the size of one parameter depends on what other parameters are simultaneously uncertain. Further, two parameters may be linked with positive or negative covariances. The covariances are here shown to have important effects on the investor, whether risk neutral or risk averse. Governments are advked to consider policies that affect the covariances of those parameters that are key influences on in vestment. 相似文献
918.
This research suggests that a random coefficient regression model is well-suited for analyzing long-run versus short-run movements in wages and unemployment and is an improvement over some empirical techniques typically used. 相似文献
919.
DAVID J. TEECE 《Contemporary economic policy》1986,4(4):65-78
This paper assesses the competition faced by oil pipelines. It also uses a new procedure and new data to test whether oil pipeline markets are competitive or monopolistic, under standard definitions. The key innovation of the paper is a new approach to the definition of the relevant market(s) in which oil pipelines operate. While recognizing that pipeline monopsony also could be a problem under certain conditions, the paper argues that these conditions are unlikely to arise and that if they do, it is unclear whether pipeline owners would be in a position to exploit them. The study offers new evidence to fuel the 80-year-old debate over pipeline rates and regulation. 相似文献
920.
Many different measures of Tobin's q have been proposed which differ in measurement methods and data sources. This paper evaluates the similarities and differences in the statistical properties of the different measures using ARIMA and factor analysis methods. The statistical properties of average and marginal q measures are found to be quite different. 相似文献