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991.
It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated
simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our
model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized
by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The
analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for
seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full
model.
First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002
Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl 相似文献
992.
Summary. In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries
to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. In the presence of binding
regulation, there is always a unique equilibrium. We perform four alternative policy experiments; a change in the seigniorage
tax rate, a change in the seigniorage tax base, a change in the income tax and a change in the fiscal-monetary policy mix.
We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result
in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the
seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and it has an ambiguous effect on inflation.
An increase in income tax financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent
that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government
finance is growth reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase
in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Under the specification
of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate.
Received: March 20, 2000; revised version: June 26, 2001 相似文献
993.
Daniel?W.?MccollumEmail author Kevin?J.?Boyle 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2005,30(1):23-33
Tests of convergent validity and procedural invariance were used to investigate whether individuals lacking direct experience with a commodity can provide valid responses to contingent-valuation questions eliciting ex post use values. Convergent validity between samples with and without experience was shown to hold for dichotomous-choice responses, but not for open-ended responses. 相似文献
994.
该文构建非对称信息模型分析普遍服务政策问题,其中政府对企业在农村提供服务的边际成本具有非对称信息.该文对区别定价和统一定价两种情形进行了对比分析.在实施区别定价时,不完全信息将提高农村地区的资费水平,并且降低相应的网络覆盖面积;而在实施统一定价时,农村地区的定价可能降低,但却是以网络覆盖的减少为代价的.该文的政策结论是:在实施普遍服务政策时,需要综合考虑网络投资的激励和用户承受能力. 相似文献
995.
Encouraging firms to develop voluntarily more comprehensive environmental management systems (EMSs) is touted as a policy
tool to augment mandatory environmental regulations. Using a unique dataset of environmental management practices of Japanese
manufacturers and controlling for self-selection bias in survey responses, we find that proxies for regulatory pressures and
consumer pressures are the most important factors that motivate firms toward more comprehensive EMSs. Despite the oft-claimed
“voluntary” nature of EMS development, our results show that the government may have a role to play in both directly and indirectly
affecting EMS development by firms.
相似文献
996.
Our matching problems feature agents with endowments facing certain division rules. At any matching, the endowments of agents are reallocated between the matched pairs according to some given division rule, and this opens doors to an iterated matching problem and rematching, and to manipulation of some matching rules via segmentation. In this form of manipulation a coalition breaks off from the rest, matches within itself and rejoins the complementary coalition for a rematching at the new endowment profile. Under certain division rules this may benefit the coalition who breaks off without hurting the complementary coalition. Furthermore, both may benefit by first matching internally and then rejoining for a new match. 相似文献
997.
本文研究在欧盟单一金融市场中有效发挥最后贷款人功能所面临的挑战.简要分析了欧盟金融业的一些特点,这些特点可能增加欧盟系统性金融风险;讨论了预防和解决金融问题的欧盟金融稳定构架的复杂性(最后贷款人的运作也包括在这个构架之中);论述了当系统性金融风波影响不止一个欧盟成员国时,如何实现最后贷款人功能.最后提出了提高现有构架效率所面临的挑战和可行的途径. 相似文献
998.
The view that Australian protection discriminates against the less developed countries (LDCs) is examined in this paper. It distinguishes between direct discrimination through tariff preferences and indirect discrimination through inter-commodity differences in rates of protection. The second mechanism proves to be more important. While Australian protection did not discriminate against the LDCs in 1968–49, by 1977–78 it did. This reflects changes in the commodity composition of Australia's imports from the LDCS . 相似文献
999.
The aim of the article is to provide a survey of the major issues involved in the reform of accident Compensation schemes. The article outlines the economic and social pressures for reform of existing accident compensation schemes, discusses the major reform issues and raises the major challenges facing the reform process. The article focuses on the experience of the Victorian Government in developing and implementing its reform of workers compensation (Workcare) and on its proposed reform of the existing compulsory third party motor accidents scheme to illustrate the key issues. 相似文献
1000.
In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined. 相似文献