Strategic Interaction and Trade Policymaking: Formal Analysis and Simulation

This paper introduces a simple game‐theoretic model and a Monte Carlo simulation of trade negotiations with the aim of identifying the nature of the selection bias that may threaten valid inference from empirical tests relying on data from trade disputes. Insights from the formal model are used to critically engage recent empirical analyses. This model is applied more specifically to the American use of Section 301 as an instrument to prise open foreign markets. The results of the game‐theoretical model and the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that, despite significant statistical results, models of trade negotiations might potentially suffer from misspecification due to non‐random selection effects.     

RESPRO-an interactive procedure for planning newproduct chemical research

The model has been developed specifically for the great uncertainties obtaining in new-product chemical researchparticularly in the pharmaceutical industry-but it is hoped that it will prove flexible enough to be used in other circumstances. The program is in Fortran and could be run on most computer systems.
Procedures for selecting projects and reviewing their progress are becoming increasingly important aspects of R & D management. Modelling a procedure mathematically can prove advantageous, especially if such a model is capable of computational analysis, for then the policy alternatives can easily be explored and compared. This paper describes one such computer based procedure. In quantifying the value of any effort allocation, the program automatically takes account of the fact that estimates of the likelihood that a project will result in a new discovery change as work continues on the project. It also computes a marginal profitability index for each project. Comparison of these indices suggests ways in which effort might profitably be re-allocated among projects.     

Preparing for the worst: public perceptions of risk management innovations

Scholars often call for research on the public’s involvement in crisis and risk mitigation. Yet, before the public can be persuaded to become involved in new mitigation initiatives, risk managers must first understand how members of the public perceive such initiatives. Grounded in diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory, this study presents insights from 70 adult residents of a US urban metro area through focus group research. Findings yield insights about public perceptions of risk management innovations including that ‘greater good’ incentives can motivate interest in innovations (more so than financial incentives), thereby extending DOI theory. In addition, participants suggested mechanisms for facilitating government transparency to encourage program participation, along with additional insights about involving the public in government-sponsored risk management innovations.     

Key issues in regional growth and integration in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The decade to 2015 saw rapid growth in trade between Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Much of this growth reflected South African exports to its neighbours of diversified manufactured goods to meet growing urban consumption and to supply inputs to mining and infrastructure. While most SADC countries, aside from South Africa, grew quite rapidly over this period, their exports remained oriented to a narrow range of minerals and agricultural commodities destined to go outside the region. Drawing from a series of sectoral studies, we assess key regional issues including the investment and production decisions of firms whose operations stretch across borders, and consider the implications for a bottom-up integration agenda that could build productive capabilities across countries. Our evaluation highlights the importance of the spread of supermarkets, the need to address transport and logistics, and value chains whose competitive advantages are inherently regional, as in the cases of poultry and mining.     

Youth sports and the emergence of chameleon leadership

This qualitative phenomenological study explored the lived youth sports experiences of a sample of 20 North Carolina managers to determine how interpersonal skills developed through youth sports impact managing change. The data resulted in an emerging theme of a fearlessness approach to change situations, labeled chameleon leadership for this research study. The discovered theme offered information toward leadership and management skills used to manage complex organizations and diverse individuals within the realm of sports and work environments to enhance productivity in today's diverse and complex organizations.     

Heroes and Villains – Tour Operator and Media Response to Crisis: An Exploration of Press Handling Strategies by UK Adventure Tour Operators

As news dissemination quickens, and consumer awareness increases, strategies employed to handle press during crisis will have far-reaching implications on the reputations of adventure tour operators, and the industry. Exploring the strategies used by three tour operators who have experienced crisis provides some insight into how press handling can affect subsequent UK press reporting. The research examined notions of crisis, the need to appreciate the existence of crisis, the role of media, the key stakeholders involved, and how actual response to a situation can affect media attention. Qualitative analysis of newspaper articles and interviews with key representatives produced conclusions suggesting that companies must be prepared to acknowledge the potential for crisis, and employ crisis techniques that incorporate a press handling strategy. There are many external factors affecting media reporting; however, when a crisis does occur the way in which the press is handled will affect public perception. While recognising there is no control over the media, a prepared response can result in fair reporting and as such can be argued to form an essential part of business operations.     

Robust Estimates of Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Post‐Independence Namibia

We estimate changes in the distribution of household consumption expenditure in Namibia since independence in 1990 and the effects on poverty. To produce comparability between two household surveys, we use survey‐matching techniques, and we apply the framework of stochastic dominance to test the robustness of our results. The results reveal a significant decrease in the poverty headcount over the period and small but insignificant decreases in the country's extremely high levels of inequality. Decomposition analysis shows that poverty reduction in Namibia is largely driven by growth in mean incomes rather than redistribution. Even so, there have been important changes in inequality among different social groups especially as educational attainment has replaced ethnicity as the main determinant of between‐group inequality.